Belarus is sending troops to the border with Ukraine in a bid to distract Kyiv from the battle for the Donbas, British intelligence suggests.
Special forces from President Alexander Lukashenko’s army are massing on the 1,084-kilometre southern boundary with Ukraine, while other factions are being posted to the West, towards the border with Poland.
Soldiers from Belarus have not been directly involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine, now in its 12th week, but the Kremlin used its allied country’s territory as a launch pad for its invasion in February.
As the Russians encounter stiff resistance from the Ukrainians in the Donbas, President Vladimir Putin’s bid to dominate the eastern Ukrainian region appears to have stalled a month after the offensive began.
In an intelligence update issued on Monday, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said Belarus appeared to be engaging in distraction tactics by massing troops on the border with Ukraine in a bid to take Kyiv’s eyes off the region.
“Following exercise activity earlier this month, Belarus has announced the deployment of special operations forces along the Ukraine border, as well as air defence, artillery and missile units to training ranges in the west of the country,” the MoD update said.
“The presence of Belarusian forces near the border will likely fix Ukrainian troops, so they cannot deploy in support of operations in the Donbas.
“Despite early speculation, to date Belarusian forces have not been directly involved in the conflict. However, Belarusian territory was used as a staging post for Russia’s initial advance on Kyiv and Chernihiv. Russia has also launched air sorties and missile strikes from Belarus.”
The MoD said Mr Lukashenko, a key ally of Mr Putin, appeared to be “balancing support for Russia’s invasion with a desire to avoid direct military participation with the risk of western sanctions”. Intelligence also suggested he was likely to be trying to avoid possible retaliation from Ukraine and “dissatisfaction in the Belarusian military”.
Kyiv on Monday was bracing for a new Russian push in the Donbas as the defending forces’ counterattack around Kharkiv gained momentum. After failing to capture the capital city in the first weeks of the war, Mr Putin redirected troops to the Donbas in a battle considered decisive in the invasion.
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A pro-Russian troop stands guard before the expected departure of Ukrainian soldiers, who surrendered at the besieged Azovstal steel mill in the course of conflict in Mariupol. Reuters -
A Ukrainian soldier on reconnaissance in a recently retaken village on the outskirts of Kharkiv, east Ukraine. AP Photo -
The destroyed part of the Ilyich Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol. AFP -
US President Joe Biden, Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson and Finnish President Sauli Niinisto walk through the White House rose garden after discussing the war, as well as potential Nato membership, in Washington. AP -
Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered at the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol are escorted by pro-Russian troops to Olenivka in the breakaway Donetsk region. Reuters -
Ukrainian National Guard soldiers train in the woods of the Transcarpathian region. Reuters -
A roof damaged during Russia's invasion of Ukraine is rebuilt in Moshchun village, near Kyiv. Reuters -
Ukrainian children play war games at a "checkpoint" they set up in Stoyanka, near Kyiv. AFP -
Russian soldier Vadim Shishimarin, centre, on trial for war crimes in the Solomyansky district court in Kyiv, Ukraine. AFP -
A controlled detonation of explosive devices is conducted near Borodianka, Ukraine. Reuters -
A Russian serviceman adjusts the Soviet flag on a statue in Leninsky Komsomol Square in Mariupol, Ukraine. EPA -
A couple leave a metro station where they had been living after fleeing Russian shelling in Kharkiv, Ukraine. Getty Images -
Ukrainian forces leave the Azovstal steel works plant in Mariupol. AFP -
Russian militrary vehicles follow buses (not in picture) carrying Ukrainian troops being evacuated from the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. EPA -
Members of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic forces carry water bottles as the evacuation of Ukrainian soldiers is carried out in Mariupo. EPA -
Ukrainian separatist troops and Russian soldiers, rear right, guard the buses with Ukrainian troops, in Mariupol. EPA -
A member of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic forces escorts a Ukrainian fighter being evacuated from the steel plant. EPA -
Russian militrary vehicles escort buses carrying Ukrainian troops from the Azovstal steel plant. EPA -
A total of 265 Ukrainian militants, including 51 seriously wounded, laid down arms and surrendered to Russian forces, the Russian Ministry of Defence said on May 17. EPA -
A Ukrainian soldier sits on a bus as troops are evacuated. EPA -
Russian President Vladimir Putin on April 21 ordered his defence minister to not storm but blockade the plant where a number of Ukrainian fighters were holding out. EPA -
Those in need of medical assistance were sent for treatment to a hospital in Novoazovsk, Russia said. EPA -
Some of the Ukrainian troops evacuated from the steel plant. AP -
A pro-Russian fighter stands guard next to a combat vehicle, before the evacuation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers from the besieged Azovstal steel mill,in Mariupol. Reuters -
Pro-Russian troops wait before the evacuation of wounded Ukrainian soldiers from the Azovstal steel mill. Reuters -
A wounded Ukrainian soldier evacuated from Mariupol is carried on a stretcher out of a bus, after arriving in Novoazovsk. Reuters -
Buses carrying Ukrainian soldiers from the besieged Azovstal steel mill drive away under escort of the pro-Russian forces, in Mariupol. Reuters -
Pro-Russian troops stand guard on a road in Mariupol, Ukraine. Reuters -
Left to right, clockwise: Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajikistan's President Emomali Rakhmon, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Stanislav Zas, Secretary General of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), and Belarus's President Alexander Lukashenko hold a meeting of CSTO leaders at the Kremlin in Moscow. AFP -
Finland's President Sauli Niinisto and US Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell answer questions from the media as Republican senators John Barrasso, Susan Collins and John Cornyn and US new ambassador to Finland Douglas Hickey listen, after a meeting at the president's official residence in Helsinki. Reuters -
Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson speaks to the media before the parliamentary debate on Swedish Nato membership, in Stockholm. Reuters -
Firefighters work at a scene of a missile strike, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, in Zatoka, Odesa region. Reuters -
A closed McDonald's restaurant in Moscow. Reuters -
A Ukrainian soldier walks past a wrecked Russian armoured personnel carrier, near Kutuzivka, north of Kharkiv. AP -
A screengrab obtained from a video shows Ukrainian troops at the Ukraine-Russia border, in what was said to be the Kharkiv region. Reuters -
Water gushes from a pump station after Ukrainian troops opened a dam to flood a residential area in Demydiv, to stop the advance of Russian forces towards the capital Kyiv. Reuters -
Residental buildings damaged by shelling in Irpin, Kyiv region. EPA -
Activists line up to form a peace sign in front of the building that houses the Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, in Berlin. The event was organised by Greenpeace. AFP -
Officials stand together for a photo at an informal meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Berlin, with the focus on the potential membership of Finland and Sweden. Getty Images -
Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin (L) and President Sauli Niinisto hold a press conference at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, where they announced the country's intentions to apply for Nato membership. AP -
An Ukrainian girl with the national flag painted on her face attends a cultural event in support of the besieged country in a metro station in Dnipro, Ukraine. Reuters -
Kalush Orchestra of Ukraine are named the winners of the 66th Eurovision Song Contest in Turin, Italy. Getty Images -
Members of the Ukrainian military celebrate Kalush Orchestra winning the Eurovision Song Contest, at their position in the Kyiv region. Reuters -
Refugees from Mariupol region arrive at a registration and humanitarian aid centre for internally displaced people in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. Reuters -
A damaged street on the outskirts of Kharkiv. EPA -
A damaged residential building on the outskirts of Kharkiv. EPA -
Debris hangs from a regional government building in Mykolaiv, which was heavily damaged in a Russian attack. AP -
Former students play table tennis in the playground of a destroyed school in Kharkiv. Reuters
But western intelligence issued in recent days suggests Moscow’s bid to gain control of Ukraine’s coal mining heartland is stalling as its army suffers heavy losses.
"We are preparing for new attempts by Russia to attack in Donbas, to somehow intensify its movement in the south of Ukraine," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly televised address.
"The occupiers still do not want to admit that they are in a dead-end and their so-called 'special operation' has already gone bankrupt."
Presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich told local television that Russian troops were being transferred in the direction of Donbas after withdrawing from Kharkiv after the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Kyiv's troops have made so much progress in the northern region that they have almost reached the border with Russia, Interior Ministry adviser Vadim Denisenko said.
The Ukrainian army said on Monday that some Russian forces remained to try to block the advance and air sirens sounded in Kharkiv city in the early hours.
The Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank, on Saturday said Moscow appeared to be pulling back its forces from Kharkiv. Ukraine’s second-largest city, which lies only 50 kilometres from the Russia border, has been under enemy bombardment since the war began in February.
Gen Sir Richard Barrons, a former British Army officer who served as commander of joint forces from 2013 to 2016, said the development could be taken as a Russian defeat.
“It was just way too big an objective for the Russian military to take and when they got stuck around the outskirts of it they became an easier target for very aggressive Ukrainian counterattack,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
Gen Barrons said Russia’s retreat from Kharkiv proved its army “doesn’t have the numbers or perhaps the will or the skill to take large cities”.
But he said the foiled attempt to control Kharkiv should not be perceived as an overall failure of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on its terms.
