Europe is dependent on Russian energy. AFP
Europe is dependent on Russian energy. AFP
Europe is dependent on Russian energy. AFP
Europe is dependent on Russian energy. AFP

Vladimir Putin says Europe cannot drop Russian gas


Simon Rushton
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European nations were warned by Russian President Vladimir Putin that alternatives to Russian gas do not exist as he also looked to diversify into Asian markets.

Mr Putin said Russia would try to reduce its reliance on European customers as both sides feel the fallout of sanctions imposed after the war broke out in Ukraine.

“A reasonable replacement for Europe simply does not exist,” Mr Putin said. “There are simply no spare volumes in the global market, and deliveries from other countries, primarily the US, which may be sent to Europe, will cost the consumers many times more.

“Attempts of western countries to push out Russian suppliers, replace our energy resources by alternative supplies, will inevitably affect all the world economy.

“Consequences of such a step can become quite painful, first of all, for initiators of such a policy.

“What is surprising here: so-called partners from unfriendly countries assume that they can avoid Russian energy resources, including natural gas. Its reasonable replacement for Europe doesn’t exist.

Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting during which he called for diversification of energy exports towards Asia. AFP
Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting during which he called for diversification of energy exports towards Asia. AFP

“It is possible, but it doesn’t exist so far. Everyone understands there is no free volume (of energy resources) on the world market.

“Banks from unfriendly countries delay transfers of payments. I will remind we set a goal to convert calculations for energy resources to national currency, progressively moving away from the dollar and the euro. All in all, we are going to increase the proportion of calculations in national currency in the system of external trade.”

In the coming weeks, a new Russian law kicks in mandating unfriendly European buyers of Russian gas will need to start paying for April deliveries — an order the EU says will be breaking its sanctions.

Earlier this month, Mr Putin gave a warning that any refusal to pay in roubles would result in deliveries being halted.

At Thursday’s meeting, Mr Putin did not repeat that warning but added Russia will work on weaning itself off a reliance on energy buyers from the West.

“We will assume that in the foreseeable future, westbound energy supplies will be shrinking,” he said. “This is why it’s important to solidify the trend of the past several years, and step by step redirect our exports to the fast-growing markets of the South and the East.”

Some redirection of Russian volumes is happening now in the oil market. Many key buyers either refuse to take Russian cargoes or pledge not to once their contracts expire. Still, Russia has been able to send some of the oil flows to Asia, luring buyers with large discounts.

Redirecting Russian natural gas flows from Europe to Asia isn’t possible because the nation’s eastbound and westbound pipeline systems operate independently. Gazprom PJSC is considering building an interconnector if it signs a third supply contract with China.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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