Russia’s “bogged down” invasion of Ukraine has led to growing doubts over whether it will achieve any of its aims, senior western officials have said.
Troops have suffered such high casualties that Moscow is now drawing replacements from distant units to reinforce the stalled offensive. Morale is so low that air force pilots are reluctant to fly due to increasingly heavy Ukrainian air defence and many conscripts are unwilling to fight.
“Russia is trying to generate forces to sustain the campaign and we are seeing signs of them pulling reserves out of peripheral places around Russia and its borders, which clearly was not part of the original plan, which demonstrates the extent to which it has got bogged down,” a security official said.
Moscow has also turned to Chechen mercenaries and Syrian fighters to make up the numbers but they, too, have suffered loses.
The invaders have failed to achieve a “strategic breakthrough” and are still tied to Ukraine’s road network, making them vulnerable to ambush, the official said.
“The advance has been slowed very substantially and they have taken substantial casualties,” the security official added. He said that US estimates of 7,000 Russian dead was not “implausible”.
Questions have also been raised over whether Russia will have the forces or ability to mount an assault on the capital Kyiv, which they are still struggling to encircle.
Reports from Kyiv suggest that the Russian encirclement is not even half complete, with 60,000 troops proving insufficient to surround it.
“I think there is a question as to whether Moscow now intends to try to assault Kyiv or not,” the source said.
Another western official added that there were concerns among Russian commanders over the cost of an attack.
“An ill-judged ground assault on a city as well prepared as Kyiv with really determined and committed defenders would be a fairly costly business and I think there comes a point where even Russia has to count the cost of casualties,” he said.
Ukraine continues to be supplied with US-made Stinger anti-aircraft missiles that have shot down both helicopters and jets, causing disquiet among Russian pilots.
“They are finding themselves quite vulnerable to Ukrainian countermeasures and therefore they're exercising considerable caution,” the official said.
“We are seeing very, very low morale amongst the Russian forces, which may have been playing into the ability of pilots to get wheels up [take off] and the necessity of senior officers to go to the front.”
At least three Russian generals have been killed in the last fortnight.
The fighting has become a “grinding form of warfare” that was stalling out.
“There is very encouraging resistance from the Ukrainians. We don't know how long they can hold out. We hope it will be as long as possible," the official said.
It is now also necessary to begin securing evidence of war crimes, especially following the Russian attack that is said to have a hit a theatre in Mariupol sheltering 1,000 civilians.
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A woman cries near a building damaged by shelling in Kyiv as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues. EPA -
A satellite photo from Planet Labs PBC shows the damage from a Russian strike on Lviv's international airport. AP -
Destroyed cars hit by shelling in Kyiv. EPA -
A woman stands in her home after her building was damaged by shelling in Kyiv. EPA -
A pedestrian looks at a cloud of smoke rising after an explosion in Lviv. AP -
General view of a street behind a barricade in the southern Ukrainian city of Odesa. EPA -
The UN Security Council meets on threats to international peace and security in New York. AFP -
US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks with US troops at an army training range in Bulgaria. AP -
Empty strollers are seen outside the Lviv city council building during an action to highlight the number of children killed during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. AFP -
Children play on the stage of the theatre of the Ukrainian House where a shelter for refugees has been installed in Przemysl, south-eastern Poland. AFP -
Smoke is seen above buildings close to the airport in Lviv, Ukraine. Lviv's mayor said the airport was not hit, but an area nearby. Getty Images -
Ukrainian firefighters try to extinguish a blaze at a warehouse after a bombing in Kyiv. AP Photo -
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy presents flowers to Kateryna Vlasenko, 16 - who was injured as she fled with her family from the town of Vorzel - at a hospital in Kyiv. Reuters -
Igor, a 40 year-old Ukranian soldier, embraces his wife in front of his military basement in the centre of Odesa. AFP -
Ukrainian refugees arrive at the reception centre near Palanca Village, about 3 kilometres from the Moldova-Ukraine border. EPA -
Broken windows after parts of a Russian missile, shot down by Ukrainian air defences, hit an apartment block in Kyiv. AP -
People clear debris outside a medical centre damaged by the same Russian missile after it was intercepted. AP -
A police officer looks through the window of a damaged flat in Kyiv. One person was killed and three injured when debris from a downed rocket hit an apartment in the Ukrainian capital. AFP -
Firemen working in the rubble after extensive damage in Kyiv. AFP -
Family members and comrades of Ivan Skrypny, who was killed in a rocket attack on a military base in Yavoriv, pay their last respects at his memorial service in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters -
A man feels the despair as his home was hit by debris from a downed rocket in Kyiv. Russian troops trying to encircle the capital have launched early morning strikes on the city for several successive days. AFP -
UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed shakes hands with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a news conference following their talks in Moscow. Reuters -
The Donetsk Regional Theatre of Drama, which was destroyed by an air strike during Russia's military onslaught in Mariupol, Ukraine. Reuters -
A satellite image of the theatre before the bombing, with the word 'children' written in Russian in large white letters on the pavement in front of and behind the building. Reuters -
A Ukrainian woman and her family in a taxi displaying the colours of the Ukrainian flag upon arriving in Madrid with a group of Spanish taxi drivers who drove to Poland to support the mass evacuation of refugees. Reuters -
A sanitised train arrives in Kielce, Poland, carrying children with oncological diseases who fled Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Reuters -
A man outside a damaged housing block after it was hit by debris from a downed rocket in Kyiv. AFP -
A residential building damaged by a blast wave at the scene where debris from a downed rocket hit a nearby apartment block in Kyiv. AFP -
Evacuees from Mariupol are seen upon arrival at the car park of a shopping centre on the outskirts of the city of Zaporizhzhia, which is now a registration centre for displaced people. AFP -
Legislators applaud Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine's president, after an address via video link at the Bundestag in Berlin. Bloomberg
It has been reported that if Russian President Vladimir Putin realises he is failing in Ukraine, he could resort to other weapons such as chemical or even a nuclear device.
The National asked officials about their concerns over the Kremlin’s reaction to failure
“The question really is whether or not he doubles down with greater brutality and escalates in terms of one of the weapon systems that he's prepared to use,” a senior security official replied.
However, there is hope that peace talks might resolve the conflict, with the fatalities approaching 20,000 after three weeks of fighting.
Peace talks were being “taken seriously” by both sides but there was still “a very, very big gap between the positions so how quickly they can bear fruit is one question”, an official said.
