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Vladimir Putin's historic gambit of launching a war on Ukraine was based on a calculation that western nations were too weak to stop his advance, a former British ambassador to Russia has said.
Sir Andrew Wood said Mr Putin perceived western leaders as ineffective and therefore felt emboldened with confidence when he ordered tanks into Ukraine.
“He certainly believed that the West was at an all-time low,” Mr Wood told The National.
“You had elections in Germany, and upcoming elections in France, and both those powers tried to see if it was possible to have some sort of solution to the [Russia-Ukraine tensions].
“He didn’t think he’d get anything like the reaction he did when he crossed the border.”
Mr Wood served as ambassador to Russia from 1995 to 2000 and had direct dealings with Mr Putin during his tenure. He also represented the UK as ambassador to Yugoslavia and the US during a diplomatic career spanning decades.
Three weeks into the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the West has yet to intervene directly.
US President Joe Biden has vetoed the transfer of Soviet-era jets from Nato members states that once belonged to the Warsaw Pact.
And despite stern warnings from countries about the use of chemical weapons in the war, no leader has drawn a red line to pledge action if such tactics were to be used by Mr Putin’s forces.
On his own side the Russian president is hampered by the fact his soldiers appear woefully unprepared for war.
Mr Wood echoed former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev’s assessment when he said Mr Putin was not aware of the strength of his military.
“He wouldn’t have been told [about] the real state of the army,” Mr Wood said.
“He would have been told that it was wonderful and great. He would have believed that because if you look at the numbers on each side, there’s no contest really. But [the Russians] have no experience of proper air combat and ground combat and logistics and so on, and perhaps he messed up.
“[Putin] was expecting that his forces would be able to act much better than they have been able to.”
Mr Wood suggested the Russians’ inability to make major gains in the first two weeks of the war would have been painful for Mr Putin to bear, because he is “a man with huge pride”.
Assuming that the Kremlin's forces are able to assert their numerical superiority, Russia will struggle to hold on to Ukraine if it captures all the territory, the former ambassador said. He said Russia, like other nations, would have underestimated the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine.
He said Mr Putin’s troops will “have the problem, if they want it, of occupying and keeping it occupied, they would have supposed that the Ukrainians would melt away fairly quickly and they certainly underestimated Zelenskyy, who after all in our eyes was just a comic who was pretending to be president”.
On Friday, day 15 of the invasion, Russian forces were regrouping north-west of the Ukrainian capital, satellite pictures showed, in what appeared to be a preparation for a renewed attack on Kyiv.
Despite fierce battles in the towns and villages leading to the city, Russian troops have failed to take the capital.
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This satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies shows destroyed and burning warehouse buildings in Stoyanka, Ukraine, in the western Kyiv region, during the Russian invasion. AP -
Children shelter in a metro station in Kharkiv. Moscow said on March 10, 2022, that it will open daily humanitarian corridors to allow civilians fleeing fighting in Ukraine to reach Russian territory, despite Kyiv insisting that no evacuation routes should lead to Russia. AFP -
Russian President Vladimir Putin during a videoconference meeting with government members at the Kremlin in Moscow. The meeting focuses on minimising the effects of sanctions on the Russian economy. Russian troops entered Ukraine on February 24, prompting the country's president to declare martial law and triggering a series of severe economic sanctions imposed by western countries. EPA -
Rescuers work among remains of buildings damaged by an air strike in Dnipro, Ukraine, as Russia's attack on the country continues. Reuters -
Members of the National Guard of Ukraine, Oleksandr and Olena, listen to a priest at their wedding in Ukraine. Reuters -
People fleeing Russia's invasion of Ukraine warm up by a fire near the train station in Lviv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian forces rolled their armoured vehicles up to the northeastern edge of Kyiv, edging closer in their attempts to encircle the Ukrainian capital. AFP -
A woman covers herself with a blanket near a damaged fire truck after shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP Photo -
A Ukrainian soldier hides from a helicopter air strike near Demydiv, Ukraine. Reuters -
Ukrainian soldiers walk past a monument of the city founder Duke de Richelieu, covered with sand bags for protection, in Odessa, Ukraine. Reuters -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, left, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, centre, and Ukranian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. EPA -
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in talks with Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba during a tripartite meeting chaired by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, in Antalya, Turkey. AP -
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova speaks to the media as the foreign ministers of Ukraine, Russia and Turkey hold talks in Antalya, 15 days after Russia launched a military invasion on Ukraine. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman says goodbye to his girlfriend before departing in the direction of Kyiv at the central train station in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. AFP -
Valerii Sushkevych, president of the Ukraine National Paralympic Committee, and the Ukraine delegation raise their fists and pose with a banner at the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. Reuters -
A member of the Ukrainian team cries during a moment of silence at the Zhangjiakou athletes village during the Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games. AFP -
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, right, and Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kubela, second left, in Antalya, Turkey. AFP -
A man is supported after crossing the Irpin river while fleeing the town of Irpin, Ukraine. AP -
People are helped out of a damaged children's hospital following a Russian air strike in the southeastern city of Mariupol, Ukraine. AFP -
A man rides a bicycle in front of an apartment building that was damaged by shelling in Mariupol. AP -
A woman carries two babies after arriving at a triage point in Kyiv, Ukraine. AP -
A man hugs an elderly woman after crossing a damaged bridge as they flee from the frontline town of Irpin, near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. EPA -
Local residents cook at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA -
Ukrainian men chop wood at a makeshift camp next to a checkpoint in Kyiv. EPA -
A member of the Territorial Defence Forces learns how to use a Javelin missile during a training session in Kyiv. EPA -
Members of the Territorial Defence Forces learn how to give first aid during the training session. EPA -
A woman rescued from the outskirts of Kyiv holds a plate of food after arriving at a triage point in the Ukrainian capital. AP -
A woman cries after arriving at the triage point in Kyiv. AP -
Civilian vehicles drive past a destroyed Russian tank as they leave Irpin. AP -
Ukrainian servicemen stand in a foxhole in Irpin. AP -
People gather on a platform to board a train leaving Odesa after the US said Russian troops are making preparations to attack the city. AFP -
A Ukrainian woman looks for food in a bin in Odesa's city centre. AFP -
Ukrainian servicemen look towards Russian positions outside the city of Brovary, east of Kyiv. AFP -
A man walks past a shelled house at the village of Velyka Dymerka, east of Kyiv. AFP -
A Ukrainian serviceman stands at a check point in the vilage of Velyka Dymerka east of Kyiv. AFP -
A Ukrainian woman plays with her child in a temporary refugee shelter in Przemysl, Poland. Reuters -
A woman waits outside a maternity and children's hospital damaged by shelling in Mariupol, Ukraine. AP -
A pregnant woman leaves the hospital after she was wounded when it was bombed. AP -
A woman waits outside the damaged hospital in Mariupol. AP -
A man wounded by shelling in Mariupol. AP -
A car burns after the destruction of the children's hospital in Mariupol. Reuters -
A mortuary worker wheels a stretcher used to move dead bodies before they are buried on the outskirts of Mariupol. AP
Russia has been pounding Ukraine's cities while its main attack force north of Kyiv has been stalled on roads since the early days of the invasion.
The Ukrainian government has accused Russian forces of bombing and shelling cities across Ukraine, and of hitting a psychiatric hospital near the eastern town of Izyum where hundreds of patients were sheltering in the basement.
In Russia, prosecutors asked a court to declare Meta Platforms, owner of Facebook and Instagram, an "extremist" organisation, after it allowed posts in Russia and its western neighbours calling for the death of invading Russian troops.
