Turkey scraps rallies in Germany before referendum as row rages



BERLIN // Turkey on Tuesday cancelled all future campaign appearances by its politicians in Germany ahead of April’s referendum on expanding president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s powers, amid a heated diplomatic row.

It came a day after Chancellor Angela Merkel warned that Germany could issue a blanket ban against future campaign events by Turkish politicians unless Ankara halted its Nazi insults.

Such comments were “breaking every taboo, without consideration for the suffering of those who were persecuted and murdered” by the Nazis, she said.

The sudden decision by Ankara came after three weeks of furious exchanges between Turkey and the European Union over the pro-Erdogan rallies which were banned in some of the bloc’s member states.

“All future events that were planned have been cancelled. That is a decision that was made in Ankara,” said a Cologne-based spokeswoman for Mr Erdogan’s AKP party.

Turkish ministers eager to tap into 1.4 million voters in Germany have sought to campaign in Europe’s most populous country to whip up support for a “yes” vote in the April 16 referendum on scrapping the prime minister’s post and creating a executive presidency.

However, several were recently rebuffed when German local and state authorities blocked the rallies, citing logistical reasons.

After explicitly saying such campaign appearances were not welcome, The Netherlands refused to allow foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu’s plane landing rights and expelled another envoy who had travelled in by road.

Ankara reacted with fury, with Mr Erdogan accusing Germany and The Netherlands of “Nazi” practices, sparking uproar in Europe.

The European Union official overseeing the bloc’s expansion efforts said on Tuesday that Turkish membership will become “more and more unrealistic” unless Ankara changes course soon.

EU enlargement commissioner Johannes Hahn told Germany's Bild daily that "with regard to the strict accession criteria, Turkey has been moving further and further away from the EU for some time".

“If it doesn’t change course quickly, membership will indeed become more and more unrealistic,” he warned.

On Tuesday, a senior ally of Mrs Merkel said Mr Erdogan has crossed a line by comparing Berlin’s government to the Nazis and is no longer welcome in Germany.

The rebuke from Volker Bouffier, vice chairman of the Chancellor’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, reflects growing exasperation over Mr Erdogan’s assertions that Germany and other European powers were using Nazi tactics by banning Turkish political rallies in their territories.

“Enough is enough,” said Mr Bouffier. “Mr Erdogan and his government are not welcome in our country, and that must be now be understood,” he said.

* Agence France-Presse and Reuters

Electoral College Victory

Trump has so far secured 295 Electoral College votes, according to the Associated Press, exceeding the 270 needed to win. Only Nevada and Arizona remain to be called, and both swing states are leaning Republican. Trump swept all five remaining swing states, North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, sealing his path to victory and giving him a strong mandate. 

 

Popular Vote Tally

The count is ongoing, but Trump currently leads with nearly 51 per cent of the popular vote to Harris’s 47.6 per cent. Trump has over 72.2 million votes, while Harris trails with approximately 67.4 million.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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