Frank DeViva, the owner of the Bakehouse Bakery and Cafe in Kingston, Pennsylvania, says many of his customers support US President Donald Trump, even if they don't advertise it. Rob Crilly for The National
Frank DeViva, the owner of the Bakehouse Bakery and Cafe in Kingston, Pennsylvania, says many of his customers support US President Donald Trump, even if they don't advertise it. Rob Crilly for The NaShow more

Former Democrats in Pennsylvania are sticking with Trump



If Tuesday’s midterm elections are a referendum on Donald Trump’s performance as president then the voters of Luzerne County, at the heart of what used to be Pennsylvania’s coal belt, need no further encouragement.

“Nothing has changed since 2016,” said Kathy, a registered Democrat. “In fact, I’m just a little bit more sure. Any doubts have gone.”

So when she casts her vote on November 6 in Congressional and local elections she will plump for one party across the board – the Republican Party.

She is not alone among the members of the informal breakfast club that convenes on weekday mornings beneath the flatscreen TV showing Fox News in Kington’s Bakehouse Bakery and Cafe.

Luzerne County emerged as one of the bellwethers of Mr Trump’s unlikely victory, where an overwhelmingly white, blue collar population flung its weight behind the Republican nominee. Here, Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 wins of 8 and 5 percentage points respectively, were transformed into a Trump victory of 26,000 votes – more than half his winning margin in the state.

And if voters then were motivated by his promise to bring back jobs, keep out illegal immigrants and ensure they were no longer America’s forgotten people, today they are even more angry that Mr Trump is not getting a fair chance to do his job.

“This whole mess is in large part down to the party that did not win and that could not accept that they lost,” said Kathy, a retired teacher, who withheld her second name, if not the strength of her feelings.

She reeled off a string of examples of the media or Democrats obstructing the president’s wishes, from court injunctions against his travel ban to the battle over nominating Brett Kavanaugh as a Supreme Court justice.

“If the law doesn’t sound like it suits them, they say they’re not going to listen to him,” chimed Walt, who also gave only his first name for fear of causing trouble for his son who worked for the Democratic Party.

If Democrats hope to win back the White House they will need to win back the Walts and Kathies of Luzerne.

There is little chance of that, according to this informal focus group. The Democrats still don’t offer the sort of radical change this county needs, they said.

It is easy to see why.

Kingston is the sort of place that has come to define Mr Trump’s America as largely rural and battered by repeated cycles of economic decline.

It was founded on the coal that made this part of America rich during the 19th century. Decline arrived in the middle of the 20th century, offset at first by manufacturing jobs before they left too, beaten off by foreign competition.

Many here still remember with bitterness how pencil maker Eberhard Faber upped and left for Mexico in the 1980s.

Some service sector jobs have arrived but they have not been enough to raise stagnant median wages since the year 2000. Unemployment rates run at about a percentage point higher than the national average or worse.

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“We used to make shoes in this county. We used to make clothes,” said Gary Reese, 73, a retired golf pro, describing with pride how dressmakers would supply glitzy Manhattan department stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue.

“It’s all gone now. Everything comes from overseas.”

Mr Reese was more than merely a Democratic voter in the past. He represented the party as mayor during the 1990s but plumped for Mr Trump in 2016.

“I’m voting for him again this time,” he said. “I’m never voting Democratic again.”

The television above him switched to images from Mexico, where a procession of migrants – what has become known as a caravan – was walking towards the American border. Its progress has been weaponised by Mr Trump, who has sent extra troops to guard crossings and claimed the marchers had been infiltrated by “unknown Middle Easterners” and criminals.

Such claims may have been debunked but they touch a nerve in Luzerne County. Immigration has at times been a contentious issue, particularly in nearby Hazleton, which has a growing Hispanic population.

“We have immigration in this country, otherwise none of us would be here,” said Mr Reese, whose own family comes from Wales, “but I can only support so much.”

And with that it sounds as if the blue collar, Trump Democrats of 2016 are not so much swing voters, alienated by Hillary Clinton’s Wall Street ties and looking for the best deal for working men and women, but fully paid up members of the Trump base.

It means Democrats hoping to win back the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania will have to do a lot more than hope that Mr Trump’s erratic, angry outbursts and tweet storms will be enough to do the job for them.

As Frank DeViva, the welcoming owner of the Bakehouse puts it: “I can’t tell you the number of people who tell me they support Trump but dare not tell anyone.”

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Lazio 3 (Alberto 16', Lulic 73', Cataldi 90 4')

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Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

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In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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