Most Turks may be against the coup attempt but they are far from united

President Erdogan’s shift towards authoritarianism, his aggressive foreign policy and empowerment of Islamists have caused deep resentment across the country, writes Josh Wood.

Supporters of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan wave flags after soldiers involved in the coup surrendered on Istanbul's Bosphorus bridge on July 16, 2016. Gokhan Tan/Getty Images

BEIRUT // Addressing the Turkish nation from the small screen of an iPhone being held up by a news presenter early on Saturday, for a moment president Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not appear to be in a position of much power.

Elements from the army had deployed troops and tanks on to the streets of Istanbul and Ankara, putschists were storming news outlets and military aircraft were attacking government targets.

But soon, Mr Erdogan’s desperate plea from hiding – that the Turkish people take to the streets against the coup makers – seemed to work. Across the country, people streamed into public squares and faced off with soldiers.

As forces supporting the government reasserted their power, Mr Erdogan arrived in Istanbul announcing that “a minority within the armed forces has unfortunately been unable to stomach Turkey’s unity”.

His statement was only partially correct.

Turkey’s parties and citizens of nearly every persuasion were vociferous in their opposition to the coup. Even the pro-Kurdish HDP party, who are regularly labelled as terrorists by Mr Erdogan’s government and whose constituents have seen many of their cities wrecked by war between Kurdish militants and government forces over the past year, condemned the coup. As did the Gulen movement, which the government blames for the attempted takeover.

But despite this, unity is something deeply lacking in Turkey.

Mr Erdogan’s shift towards authoritarianism, his aggressive foreign policy and empowerment of Islamists have caused deep resentment across the country.

The president has moved aggressively against dissent and free speech, taking over newspapers, locking up journalists and ensuring that the government’s line on events is dominant. His AK Party has accused the opposition in parliament of supporting terrorism, while protests are crushed.

Secularists in the country have been put off by Mr Erdogan’s empowerment of his party’s conservative religious supporters.

Beyond Turkey’s borders, Mr Erdogan abandoned Turkey’s cautious “no problems with neighbours” foreign policy in favour of attempting to build Turkey’s standing as a major regional power.

Turkey quickly moved to arm and harbour Syrian rebels fighting the government of Bashar Al Assad. When entangled in diplomatic spats with Russia and Israel, Turkey adopted an aggressive posture. And in bargaining with the European Union, Turkey threatened to flood Europe with migrants and refugees if it did not get the concessions it wanted. Ankara has also looked to establish a military footprint abroad, deploying troops to a new base in Qatar in May and making plans to open a base in Somalia.

Mr Erdogan’s government has backtracked on some of these issues recently – hashing out deals to normalise ties with Israel and Russia and saying just days ago that it wanted to pursue good relations with Syria – but its approach overall has been seen as volatile and aggressive by critics.

But although many would be pleased to see Mr Erdogan removed from power, few would welcome a military coup and a return to a military dictatorship. Past coups in Turkey have been bloody affairs followed by increased repression. They have been winner-takes-all contests with lots of losers.

And at a time of already great instability in Turkey, few would welcome the power struggles and potential civil unrest, or even war, that would have followed a successful coup.

For a year now, Turkey’s government has waged a renewed war against Kurdish separatists in the country’s south-east that has killed thousands, displaced hundreds of thousands and levelled huge portions of major cities. Turkey also recently stepped up its once lax fight against ISIL, bombing and shelling the group’s positions along the Syria-Turkey border.

In response, an extremist Kurdish faction and ISIL supporters have waged bombing campaigns targeting Ankara and Istanbul, along with other Turkish cities, bringing their conflicts to the heart of the country.

Despite eliciting hate from many in Turkey, Mr Erdogan enjoys wide popularity, significantly raising the possibility of more conflict if he were to be forced from power or his government threatened.

Beyond their failure to seize media outlets to control the narrative and to kill or capture major government figures, the putschists failed on a more fundamental level in predicting the reaction of the Turkish people. While there were pro-coup demonstrations, by and large the soldiers deployed on the streets found themselves confronted with surging crowds voicing their opposition. With tanks, fighter jets, helicopters and automatic weapons at their disposal, they could have fought, but it seems that many who were taking part in the coup came to the realisation that they were unwanted.

Mr Erdogan’s government already spoke as though there were enemies lurking around every corner, waiting for a chance to seize power. This paranoia fuelled his widening powers and the increasing repression of Turks under his leadership. And now that these fears have been proven valid to some degree, it is likely the repression will only increase further.

In his speech at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport on Saturday morning, Mr Erdogan vowed to punish those responsible for the coup attempt and said Turkey needed to “clean up” its military.

Already, nearly 3,000 soldiers have been detained and more than 2,700 judges removed from their positions.

And if Mr Erdogan uses the coup plot to move even more powerfully against his critics and opponents, divisions in the country will only harden.

“The pro-coup clique only wanted to seize the existing anti-democratic system, they did not act in favour of democracy,” said HDP head Selahattin Demirtas, in a statement condemning the botched coup attempt.

But, he added: “A progressive democracy does not appear by itself, just because the coup attempt was unsuccessful.”