JERUSALEM // The race for the leadership of Kadima, the ruling Israeli party, is theoretically a four-horse race. But in reality there are only two contenders, and the main event pits a spy against a soldier.
Tzipi Livni, Israel's foreign minister and a former spy, has been buoyed in recent days by polls suggesting she is the first politician in two years that is pulling ahead of Benyamin Netanyahu, the right wing opposition leader. That is just as well since she is also seen as less likely than her main challenger for the Kadima leadership to be able to form a ruling coalition and therefore more likely to have to call early elections.
That challenger is Shaul Mofaz, the minister of transport, a former army chief of staff and minister of defence. Like most Kadima politicians including Ms Livni, Mr Mofaz followed Ariel Sharon out of the Likud Party now led by Mr Netanyahu, and many feel Likud remains his natural home. Unlike Ms Livni, who has enthusiastically championed negotiations with the Palestinians and diplomacy in general, Mr Mofaz was critical of the ceasefire agreement reached with Hamas in Gaza and is unyielding on Iran. That will stand him in good stead among Kadima's rank-and-file, whose instincts are more hardline and among whom Ms Livni is less popular than she is with the general public. But it also poses a dilemma for Kadima members.
The dilemma goes to the core of the party's future. When Mr Sharon split the Likud Party, it was a result of Likud opposition to the withdrawal of settlers from Gaza. Those who followed him believed in Mr Sharon's assessment that the withdrawal was of overriding strategic import for Israel. But when a massive stroke ushered Mr Sharon out and Ehud Olmert in, the backbone of Kadima was lost. Even though the party secured victory in the 2006 general elections, Mr Olmert failed to convince the Israeli public, especially after the 2006 Lebanon war from which he never completely recovered.
Nevertheless, Mr Olmert struck an independent path, pursuing negotiations with all Israel's neighbours, starting with the Palestinian Authority and the Annapolis process, reaching a ceasefire deal with Hamas and along the way securing a prisoner exchange with Lebanon's Hizbollah movement while relaunching long-stalled negotiations, albeit indirect, with Syria. Ms Livni, in her position as foreign minister, has been an important component of this diplomacy, and should she be elected to succeed Mr Olmert, she is likely to continue talks on all fronts.
Mr Mofaz, on the other hand, is both less personally involved in this diplomatic drive and more naturally inclined to take an even harder line, "security first" position on all Israel's major issues, beginning with Gaza and Lebanon and, ominously, including Iran. Mr Mofaz, who was born in Iran in 1948 and who came to Israel with his parents in 1957, caused a stir in June when he said Israel would attack Iran if Tehran does not end its nuclear programme. Indeed, Mr Mofaz, like Ms Livni, is currently in Washington where he has held talks with US officials about Iran.
Speaking from Washington yesterday, Mr Mofaz said he would continue to pursue Turkish-mediated negotiations with Syria. But he also said he would try and form a national unity government if elected, one that could include Likud. A coalition including the Likud Party should not tie Mr Mofaz's hands vis-à-vis talking to Damascus, but could well slow to a stop what are already snail's pace talks with Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president.
In Gaza, meanwhile, Israel is likely to look again at a military option to weaken Hamas, while a right-wing coalition may also seek to redress what many Israelis feel was a humiliating defeat against Hizbollah in 2006. Tensions with Iran will almost certainly reach new heights, though Israeli options regarding Iran are limited by Washington, where the administration has been trying to cool tensions, a trend that will continue should Barack Obama become the next US president.
Within the current political constellation of Israeli politics, Mr Mofaz would probably find it easier to secure a stable coalition around him than Ms Livni. But a Mofaz-led Kadima will find it harder to distinguish itself from Likud. This would likely hurt the party if and when early elections are called, something borne out by recent opinion polls that show that only Ms Livni would run closely to Mr Netanyahu or stand a chance of beating him.
In other words, Kadima members will be faced with a dilemma when they vote for a new leader on Sept 17. They can go with their instincts and vote for Mr Mofaz, thus undermining the reason for the party's existence outside Likud and endangering its future, or they can vote for Ms Livni, whom many party members may not favour and who may not be able to assemble a stable coalition, but whose political philosophy is clearly different from Likud and who is the only Israeli politician that can compete with Mr Netanyahu.
@Email:okarmi@thenational.ae
