RAMALLAH // The gunfire started almost exactly at noon as Palestinians celebrated the release of 198 prisoners from Israeli jails. The release came just a few hours before Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, was due in the region in her latest quest to push forward negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. Neither the prisoner release - billed as a "goodwill gesture" to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president - nor Ms Rice's visit is likely to have much impact on stalled negotiations, however. Without such progress, the effect the prisoner release will have on Mr Abbas's domestic standing will be negligible, and indeed, could backfire, Palestinian analysts said. "Ms Rice is arriving empty-handed," said Walid Salem, a Palestinian analyst. "She will not bring any bridging proposal, she will simply mediate between the two sides, trying to bring them closer."
The prisoner release, he said, was an Israeli gesture to show that progress is being made, whereas the only progress evident is just that release. "The [prisoner release] is an attempt to do something partial in the hope that this will compensate for the absence of progress." Nevertheless, there was no mistaking the genuine joy of the families of those released today as they assembled at the presidential headquarters in Ramallah to hear Mr Abbas say there would be "no peace unless all Palestinian prisoners are released". The issue of Palestinian prisoners is an especially sensitive one in Palestinian society. Around 10,000 Palestinians currently languish in Israeli jails.
Of those, more than 10 per cent are held in administrative detention and without trial or formal charge. Some 320 are minors and just under 100 are women. An estimated 700,000 Palestinians have at one time or another spent time in Israeli prison in the 41 years of occupation. Jail is therefore a common experience for Palestinians, who at one stage used to call Israeli prisons "Palestinian universities", since many received education from other prisoners there. It is also an unpleasant one, with allegations of torture rife and conditions described by a 2005 UN special report as "harsh, with prisoners living in overcrowded, poorly ventilated cells that they generally leave for only two hours a day".
"The release of some 200 prisoners is meaningless and insignificant not only in terms of numbers, but also in practice," said Ghassan Khatib, a former minister in the Palestinian Authority. "Israel continues to arrest and release dozens of Palestinians daily, and as long as the average number of prisoners remains the same, what's the point of making such gestures?" Both Mr Khatib and Mr Salem rejected the idea that the release would serve to strengthen Mr Abbas. "It is unfortunate that the Palestinian leadership has been co-opted, weakened and stripped of its political leverage to such an extent that it is in need of the support of such empty gestures," said Mr Khatib.
Mr Salem said the release could instead backfire, offering Hamas, currently engaged in prisoner exchange negotiations with Israel over captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, ammunition against Mr Abbas. "The fact that these are mostly Fatah prisoners will enable Hamas to portray [Mr Abbas] as the representative of Fatah only and not all the Palestinian people." Sami Abu Zuhri, a Hamas spokesman, yesterday welcomed the release but at the same time warned that it was designed to keep Palestinians divided. "We welcome the release of all Palestinian prisoners and congratulate their families," he said from Gaza City. "But the fact that [those released] were mostly from Fatah is an Israeli ploy to deepen Palestinian divisions."
Hamas is under pressure to conclude an exchange deal with Israel over Cpl Shalit but has stalled negotiations for the time being since the movement feels Israel is not abiding by its obligations under the ceasefire agreement struck for Gaza in July, especially on opening crossings into Gaza for basic goods. Some Israeli analysts see the prisoner release as a "logical" move by Ehud Olmert's government in light of the expected exchange with Hamas. "The decision to release PLO-connected but not Hamas prisoners makes perfect sense," said Yossi Alpher, an Israeli analyst. "Israel has a peace process with the PLO - something that is inconceivable with Hamas." Undoubtedly, said Mr Alpher, the timing of the release had to do with the visit of Ms Rice, though in the 24 hours she is here, she is unlikely to achieve much. "The release will improve the atmosphere, but it doesn't apply to her main mission," Mr Alpher said. The US administration is widely understood to be pushing the Palestinian and Israeli sides to, at the very least, commit to paper where they have reached in negotiations. Washington is publicly committed to reaching either a comprehensive or a framework agreement by the end of the year, but both appear increasingly unlikely in the current political climate where both George W Bush, the US president, and Mr Olmert are on their way out while Mr Abbas faces scheduled presidential elections in early 2009. "In the current situation there is not much leeway for US pressure [on either side]," said Mr Alpher. @email:okarmi@thenational.ae
