Displaced Iraqi people are seen at the Amriyat al Fallujah camp in Anbar Province, Iraq January 3, 2018. Picture taken January 3, 2018. REUTERS/Khalid al-Mousily
Displaced Iraqis are seen at the Amriyat al Fallujah camp in Anbar Province. According to aid workers between 2,400 and 5,000 people had been forcibly returned by the Iraqi army between November 21 anShow more

Iraqi returnees surpass number of internally displaced for first time since 2013



The number of Iraqis returning to their areas of origin has surpassed those who remain internally displaced for the first time since December 2013, the International Organisation for Migration has said.

At the end of last year IOM identified 3.2 million people who had returned to their homes since January 2014, compared with 1,370,862 at the end of 2016 and 468,780 at the end of 2015.

The war with ISIL has led to the displacement of nearly 6 million Iraqis since January 2014, with 3.4 million in March 2016 being the highest number of people displaced at any one time. At the end of last year 2.6 million people remained internally displaced.

"The significant return trends monitored in the last few months are largely due to the retaking of all Iraqi areas by the Iraqi Security Forces," IOM media and communications officer Sandra Black told The National. "This, coupled with the improved security situation, has encouraged large groups of displaced individuals to return to their place of origin."

It marks the first time since ISIL's 2014 blitzkrieg in Iraq that the number of people returning to their towns and cities has surpassed those still internally displaced. More than 1.2 million people have returned to Anbar province, while 30 and 14 per cent of the population has returned to Nineveh and Salah Al Din provinces respectively.

The three provinces were the worst affected by ISIL's occupation, accounting for 86 per cent of the internally displaced population. Anbaris were the first to suffer the brutal rule of the extremist group, beginning in late 2013, while Nineveh's Yazidis were subject to systematic persecution, killing and enslavement in the summer of 2014.

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Read more:

Displaced Iraqis forcibly returned home, where ISIL booby-traps abound

Down but not out: ISIL will regroup and rise again

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According to IOM, intra-governorate returns of internally displaced persons (IDPs) account for 55 per cent of returnees. The most significant concentration of IDPs is currently in Nineveh (57 per cent), which has an intra-governorate internally displaced population of 97 per cent.

Images taken this month in Wana village, west of Mosul, show children in colourful garb carrying zip-locked bags stuffed with bright acrylic blankets, often found in Iraqi households. Other returnees lug large rolled-up carpets and IOM non-food item kits back to their homes after months or sometimes even years of displacement.

A large number of houses were either totally or partially destroyed during the violent battle between ISIL and coalition-backed Iraqi forces. Countless buildings can be seen to bear the scars of the violent conflict.

According to the IOM, nearly one third of returnees are reported to have returned to houses that have suffered significant to complete damage and 60 per cent to moderately damaged residences. "[In] the long term, the intention to return is high among IDPs. [In] the short term, the preference is to voluntarily integrate locally," said the IOM's Ms Black.

The latest figure for returnees comes just days after refugees and aid workers revealed that a large number of displaced Iraqis were being forcefully returned to their areas of origin to ensure that the country's upcoming election takes place on time. People must be in their area of origin to vote and if they do not return home, this could delay the election.

Aid workers estimated that between 2,400 and 5,000 people had been forcibly returned by the Iraqi army between November 21 last year and January 2.

"These returns are not safe," one aid worker told Reuters. "Even those who don't openly resist really have no other choice. They cannot really say no to a bunch of people with guns."

Displaced people who return home prematurely are likely to face a number of obstacles to reintegration.

"UNHCR strongly discourages return movements until necessary services are in place, and continues to advocate with authorities to facilitate return only when the necessary minimal conditions are met, and to promote the availability of information to IDPs about conditions in their home areas," UNHCR spokesperson Kate Pond told The National.

While most displaced Iraqis want to return to their homes, doing so prematurely exposes them to possible death from booby-traps or acts of vigilantism.

“Sustainable return is not just about bricks and mortar," said UNHCR representative to Iraq Bruno Geddo. "Rebuilding and restoring communities is a holistic process, covering everything from clearing explosive hazards to repairing damage to infrastructure to restoring basic services, and facilitating social cohesion so that communities can again begin to flourish.”

UAE medallists at Asian Games 2023

Gold
Magomedomar Magomedomarov – Judo – Men’s +100kg
Khaled Al Shehi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -62kg
Faisal Al Ketbi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -85kg
Asma Al Hosani – Jiu-jitsu – Women’s -52kg
Shamma Al Kalbani – Jiu-jitsu – Women’s -63kg
Silver
Omar Al Marzooqi – Equestrian – Individual showjumping
Bishrelt Khorloodoi – Judo – Women’s -52kg
Khalid Al Blooshi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -62kg
Mohamed Al Suwaidi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -69kg
Balqees Abdulla – Jiu-jitsu – Women’s -48kg
Bronze
Hawraa Alajmi – Karate – Women’s kumite -50kg
Ahmed Al Mansoori – Cycling – Men’s omnium
Abdullah Al Marri – Equestrian – Individual showjumping
Team UAE – Equestrian – Team showjumping
Dzhafar Kostoev – Judo – Men’s -100kg
Narmandakh Bayanmunkh – Judo – Men’s -66kg
Grigorian Aram – Judo – Men’s -90kg
Mahdi Al Awlaqi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -77kg
Saeed Al Kubaisi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -85kg
Shamsa Al Ameri – Jiu-jitsu – Women’s -57kg

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3. Ineos Grenadiers - 3"
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2. Remco Evenepoel (BEL) Soudal–Quick-Step - ST
3. Nikias Arndt (GER) Bahrain Victorious - 3"

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Four reasons global stock markets are falling right now

There are many factors worrying investors right now and triggering a rush out of stock markets. Here are four of the biggest:

1. Rising US interest rates

The US Federal Reserve has increased interest rates three times this year in a bid to prevent its buoyant economy from overheating. They now stand at between 2 and 2.25 per cent and markets are pencilling in three more rises next year.

Kim Catechis, manager of the Legg Mason Martin Currie Global Emerging Markets Fund, says US inflation is rising and the Fed will continue to raise rates in 2019. “With inflationary pressures growing, an increasing number of corporates are guiding profitability expectations downwards for 2018 and 2019, citing the negative impact of rising costs.”

At the same time as rates are rising, central bankers in the US and Europe have been ending quantitative easing, bringing the era of cheap money to an end.

2. Stronger dollar

High US rates have driven up the value of the dollar and bond yields, and this is putting pressure on emerging market countries that took advantage of low interest rates to run up trillions in dollar-denominated debt. They have also suffered capital outflows as international investors have switched to the US, driving markets lower. Omar Negyal, portfolio manager of the JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Income Trust, says this looks like a buying opportunity. “Despite short-term volatility we remain positive about long-term prospects and profitability for emerging markets.” 

3. Global trade war

Ritu Vohora, investment director at fund manager M&G, says markets fear that US President Donald Trump’s spat with China will escalate into a full-blown global trade war, with both sides suffering. “The US economy is robust enough to absorb higher input costs now, but this may not be the case as tariffs escalate. However, with a host of factors hitting investor sentiment, this is becoming a stock picker’s market.”

4. Eurozone uncertainty

Europe faces two challenges right now in the shape of Brexit and the new populist government in eurozone member Italy.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, which has offices in Dubai, says the stand-off between between Rome and Brussels threatens to become much more serious. "As with Brexit, neither side appears willing to step back from the edge, threatening more trouble down the line.”

The European economy may also be slowing, Mr Beauchamp warns. “A four-year low in eurozone manufacturing confidence highlights the fact that producers see a bumpy road ahead, with US-EU trade talks remaining a major question-mark for exporters.”