Baghdad to Damascus, a road with no way back


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DAMASCUS // Under cover of darkness in early March 2007, Umm Mohammed fled Baghdad, escaping the city of her birth just as US soldiers closed in on her. As a member of an insurgent group that worked the west side of the Iraqi capital, she had fought a guerrilla war against American troops for two years, often disguised as a poor street vendor as she helped to set bombs to blow up their patrols.

The militants, mainly former Iraqi army officers, discovered their cell had been betrayed and the decision was made that Umm Mohammed, as she was nicknamed, would leave the country until the danger passed. Dressed as a farmer, she travelled to Damascus, leaving her safe house a few hours before US troops raided it. Now aged 41, unmarried and with no children, she has never returned. Instead, like hundreds of thousands of other Iraqis, she lives in the limbo of exile, existing off her meager savings and staying up late watching television for the latest news from Baghdad.

"All the time I'm thinking about home," Mohammed said. "It's difficult, it's horrible being away. All my history is Iraq. My dreams are Iraq." Following the 2003 invasion, a tidal wave of Iraqis left their country, the numbers rising as the violence steadily worsened. The figures have long been disputed, but the United Nations estimates that some two million escaped to neighbouring Syria and Jordan alone, making it the largest Middle East migration in 50 years.

Damascus quickly became a kaleidoscope of Iraqis from different sects, backgrounds, cities and political viewpoints, arriving and settling into three main areas - Jeramaneh, Saida Zeynab and Sahnaiya - to wait out the war. Many were poor, but there were middle-class people, too. According to the UN, 40 per cent of Iraq's professional families fled the country, forced out by kidnappings and intercommunal warfare. Sunni Arabs from Baghdad made up a significant proportion of those arriving in Syria, but there were Shiites, too, along with Christians and a plethora of other minorities. Although tens of thousands of Iraqis have voluntarily returned home since the worst of the violence in 2006 and 2007, about 1.5 million still live abroad, the UN says. In June, the number of resettlement applications for Iraqis filed by the UN refugee agency surpassed 100,000. Antonio Guterres, the UN's high commissioner for refugees, came to Damascus to mark the occasion and to remind the world that, while the Americans might be winding down their war, the refugee crisis is far from over. He appealed to the international community for help and said it was too early and too unsafe for Iraqis to be told to return. In fact, the flow of Iraqis into Syria continues, a testament to the scope of the continuing troubles. Up to 6,000 cross the border each day, some on business, some on holiday and some - usually from Baghdad, Mosul or Diyala - running away from violence, UN officials say. The vast majority do not register as refugees, but many do. Between March and June the UN in Syria added more than 8,000 new cases to its list of almost 166,000. Many of the new arrivals had tried to cling on at home but now said they had little option but to leave. "I waited until after the elections because I thought things would get better but they're getting worse again," said Umm Omar, 30, an English literature student and mother of two who arrived in Syria in July. She has registered as a UN refugee, hoping, in what is effectively a lottery, to win resettlement in Europe. Determined not to abandon her home, Umm Omar had weathered the storm of violence in Baghdad when it peaked in 2006 but said the time had come to give up on Iraq entirely. "It was a combination of things that made me finally decide," she explained. "The security is worse than they say it is. There are no public services, no jobs. You can't drink the water. There's no electricity and the politicians are only interested in themselves. There is only so much you can tolerate. "In Iraq, we live like animals, not human beings. You eat and work and try to stay alive. I want more than that for my son and my daughter. If I were alone, I'd stay - I don't want to be weak or run away from things - but for their sakes, we have left and we are not going back." It was not just ordinary refugees who converged on Damascus. There is a robust Iraqi political scene here, the city becoming a cauldron of factional activity and intrigue as its Iraqi population boomed. During the Saddam Hussein regime, Syria hosted opposition groups and, following the dictator's overthrow, it continued to do so. Only now, however, that opposition includes Baathists, the former ruling elite. The new Iraq has scores of political parties, the most influential of which have offices or representatives in Syria. From pro-government Shiites to pro-insurgency Sunnis, Damascus is a place of neutrality and welcome security. Harith al Dhari, a wanted man in Iraq and once described by the US military as the spiritual leader of the Sunni nationalist insurgency, keeps a flat in the Syrian capital's well-to-do Mezzeh neighbourhood. With the continuing occupation and various foreign forces at work, Mr al Dhari said, the political situation is "very bad" and "getting worse". Security and the quality of life, already poor, are deteriorating further, he said. "People's basic needs are not being met, and we have a government that discriminates according to a sectarian agenda." Mr al Dhari dismissed suggestions that the US military was pulling out and would withdraw entirely by the end of next year, as promised by the US president, Barack Obama. "I don't expect the Americans will leave, I don't trust them," he said. "The resistance groups will continue their fight." A world away politically - but just 10 minutes across town - lives Mohammad al Gharawi, the Syria office director of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI). Although concerned about the current governmental deadlock and security failures, as an entitled member of Iraq's new political order he remains positive about the future. "The dangerous era has passed. We have passed the civil war, and we will not go back to it," he said. "Iraq is a democracy and all the current parties ultimately want democratic politics to succeed." Umm Mohammed, the former guerrilla fighter who now spends evenings watching television alone in her small flat, said her fury at the US over the invasion is undiminished. But she also says her disillusionment with other Iraqis, including fellow insurgents, and their lack of common purpose, has increased over time, leaving her wondering what has happened to her world. "The problem is that we have all been betrayed, the Baath Party betrayed us," she said. "They should have told Saddam to go and live in the Gulf and we could have avoided the war and spared the country all this suffering." Talk of adjusting to her new surroundings is brushed aside. "I'd never left Iraq before I came here, I never wanted to," she said. "Now I'm alone, there's no one here I trust. I've not seen my mother for years, I've not spoken to my brothers. Everything I have that is valuable to me is in Iraq." She has no expectation, however, of returning soon to the land she loves. "While there is an occupation, I won't be able to return, or while we have this government," she said. "I want to go home, to a liberated Iraq, to a free and peaceful Iraq. That's my dream, but for now the dream is broken." @Email:psands@thenational.ae

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The National Archives, Abu Dhabi

Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

GOLF’S RAHMBO

- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)

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The five pillars of Islam

1. Fasting

2. Prayer

3. Hajj

4. Shahada

5. Zakat