Lahore terror fails to deter power play

It is three days since the Lahore terrorist attack, but for the country's political protagonists, it is business as usual.

ISLAMABAD // It is three days since the Lahore terrorist attack shook Pakistani society, but for the country's political protagonists, it is business as usual.
Supporters of Nawaz Sharif, the opposition leader, will today take to the streets across Pakistan to press for the restoration of the government of the central Punjab province, previously led by Shahbaz, Sharif's younger brother. The Supreme Court, which is widely acknowledged as being politically biased in favour of the Pakistani president, Asif Ali Zardari, disqualified the brothers from holding public office on Feb 25.
The strike called by Nawaz Sharif, who heads the largest faction of the Muslim League party, comes two days after elections for half the seats of the Senate, the upper house of Pakistan's parliament. The Senate gives equal weight to Pakistan's four provinces, while a smaller bloc represents Islamabad and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas.
Results declared on Wednesday gave the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), led by Mr Zardari, 27 out of 100 seats and made it the single largest party in the Senate. Other victors included the Awami National Party (ANP) and Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), regional parties from the North West Frontier and Sindh provinces, and Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam, an Islamist party strong in the Frontier and Balochistan provinces. All are coalition partners with the PPP in the federal and provincial governments. Between them, they now have a thin majority in the Senate.
The splintered Muslim League was the big loser. The faction led by Mr Sharif holds six seats in a house of 100, while the rival Quaid faction saw its seats halved to 22.
Indeed, there was not even a momentary pause in the bitter war of wills between Mr Zardari and Mr Sharif, who on Tuesday said the dismissal of his brother's administration and subsequent changes in the police hierarchy were responsible for lapses in security arrangements for the Sri Lankan cricket team.
The same day, Mr Zardari dined with Chaudhry Pervez Elahi, one of two cousins leading the Quaid faction, to explore the possibility of forming a coalition government in Punjab province. Mr Elahi was chief minister between 2002 and 2007 and supported the military rule of Pervez Musharraf, who in 1999 overthrew the government of Mr Sharif, twice the prime minister in the 1990s.
Mr Sharif yesterday visited Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Mr Elahi's cousin and president of the Quaid faction, to offer condolences on the death last month of his mother. It was the second such condolence call.
Mr Sharif's party to date retains a majority in the Punjab provincial assembly, but only with the support of rebels from the Quaid faction. It is likely to form a new administration after the removal of federal rule by April 25. But with Mr Shahbaz Sharif barred from reassuming office, a party loyalist would have to replace him as chief minister.
Shut out from the parliamentary corridors of power, the Sharif brothers have taken their cause to the streets, in alliance with a powerful lawyer's movement campaigning for the restoration of Iftikhar Chaudhry, a Supreme Court chief justice dismissed in 2007 by Mr Musharraf.
The PPP and Sharif-led faction of the Muslim League had briefly formed a federal coalition after elections in Feb 2008, but split over Mr Zardari's refusal to accede to the lawyers' demands. The parties had remained coalition partners in Punjab, but their relationship was increasingly stormy and on Feb 21, with the court's disqualification verdict widely anticipated, Mr Sharif launched his first personal attack against Mr Zardari.
The opposition leader has drawn a clear distinction between the PPP and Mr Zardari.
Once the court ruling was announced, sparking rowdy protests by Muslim League activists in many cities of Punjab, Mr Sharif announced his intention to launch a "soft revolution" aimed at forcing Mr Zardari out of the presidency. Mr Zardari responded on Feb 27 by promulgating a law to set up mobile magistrate's courts that would have, in all likelihood, been used to dispense summary justice to breakers of the peace - such as rowdy Muslim League activists and lawyers, who are planning a five-day dharna, or sit-in, in Islamabad between March 12 and 16. However, Yusaf Raza Gilani, the prime minister, blocked the presidential ordinance. He is working with the PPP chief minister of Balochistan, Nawab Aslam Raisani, and the heads of the ANP and JUI parties to find a constitutional compromise acceptable to the warring party leaders.
Mr Sharif has subsequently toned down his rhetoric, to some extent, but the prime minister, who leads a cabinet dominated by the president's confidants, has limited room for manoeuvre. He is relying on the Muslim League and the lawyers' movement to keep their protests peaceful, and is among many coalition politicians to have expressed fears that any descent into political violence would pave the way for intervention by a "third force", a phrase commonly used to describe the army - a possibility Mr Sharif refuses to acknowledge.
The army is the ultimate arbiter of Pakistani governance, having intervened on three occasions and ruled the country for more than half of its 62-year history, most recently between 1999 and the 2008 elections. The incumbent army chief, Gen Pervez Ashfaq Kayani, has vowed to remain aloof from partisan politics and in November agreed to deactivate the political wing of the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate, notorious for manipulating national politics.
However, sources said the court ruling had rung alarm bells at the general headquarters of the army, prompting the holding of a conference of senior security operatives on Feb 26, the following day.
"The army has been greatly shaken by the turn of events and sees the court ruling as a dangerous development for the country. It has made its evaluation, but remains a silent observer - for the time being," said a source privy to the conference.
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