Jordan’s fight against ISIL a high risk balancing act

Amman's challenges go beyond fighting extremism and they will need to be balanced to maintain solidarity against the group, writes Suha Maayeh.

Anwar Al Tarawneh, the wife of Jordanian pilot Lt Maaz Al Kassasbeh, holds a poster of him as she weeps during a demonstration in Amman on February 3. Raad Adayleh / AP Photo

AMMAN // The ISIL threat is presenting Jordan with a huge security challenge.

For months, the country maintained a low-profile regarding its participation in the anti-ISIL coalition. Yet, Amman publicly stepped up its role after ISIL’s brutal killing of a Jordanian fighter pilot, with officials vowing to crush the group.

The monarchy must now formulate a longer-term strategy against ISIL, while at the same time juggling domestic challenges.

Past threats to Jordan’s security include a failed coup in 1957, a Palestinian insurrection in the 1970s, and hotel bombings in Amman that killed 57 people in 2005.

However, ISIL is the worst security challenge the country has ever faced, said Hassan Abu Hanieh, an Amman-based expert on Islamic groups.

“Jordan’s involvement in the coalition, bombing ISIL targets, is risky for a vulnerable country with hardly any resources because it exposes it to retaliatory attacks,” said Mr Abu Hanieh.

The monarchy is walking a tightrope as it tries to balance the military campaign with poverty, unemployment, soaring public debts, the influx of Syrian and Iraqi refugees, and cracking down on extremist sympathisers at home.

Adopting political and economic reforms is the only way to prevent future dissent over the war against ISIL, said analysts.

Oudeh Hamaydeh, a former Jordanian intelligence officer, said it was important to address the root causes of extremism “such as corruption and the absence of social and economic justice and the crackdown on freedoms”.

Not addressing the causes of extremism could allow ISIL to attract more followers within the kingdom. A poll conducted last year by the Strategic Centre for Studies at the University of Jordan showed that 10 per cent of Jordanians see ISIL as a legitimate resistance organisation.

There are 2,000 Jordanian militants fighting alongside extremists in Syria and Iraq, according to Mr Abu Hanieh, making Jordan one of the largest exporters of foreign fighters.

“Daesh can ignite sleeper cells to create chaos in Jordan,” he said.

To counter the threat of ISIL appealing to Jordanians, Mr Abu Hanieh said the country’s allies should offer broader economic support and not just military aid.

“This support should be tangible to citizens. The allies should not sit still and wait for Jordan to collapse. They should inject money in the economy to help Jordan before it is too late.”

At the same time, the immediate military campaign will continue, even if there is a question about Jordan’s next steps.

“We have already punished Daesh for the horrendous crime it committed and we relayed the message it would not intimate us,” said Mahmoud Irdaisat, a retired major general and a former director of the Centre for Strategic Studies at the King Abdullah II Academy for Defense Studies.

“But what does the coalition want? We need a clear strategy …. Jordan is part of the coalition but we should not carry the burden ourselves.”

One of five Arab states involved in air strikes against ISIL, Jordan vowed that its revenge for ISIL burning alive fighter pilot Maaz Al Kassasbeh would be “earth shattering” after the group released a video of his death earlier this month.

Jordanian fighter jets continue to bomb ISIL targets in coordination with other coalition forces. On Monday, Emirati F-16 jets based in Jordan attacked oil refineries controlled by ISIL. Bahraini fighter jets arrived in the country on the same day.

Jordan is also contributing to efforts aimed at countering ISIL in Iraq, with military officers from the two countries meeting to discuss coordination.

Lieutenant General Mashal Mohammad Al Zaben, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Jordanian Armed Forces, said on February 11 that Jordan’s armed forces are providing all its capabilities to help the Iraqis in training and arming, according to the state-run Petra News Agency.

The US, which is leading the coalition, is also planning to resupply Jordan with munitions in the coming weeks, which King Abdullah asked for during his recent visit to Washington.

With air strikes alone unlikely to defeat ISIL, observers are debating whether Jordan will commit ground troops to the fight.

“There will be no ground war,” a Jordanian government official said.

Mamoun Abu Nuwar, a retired major general who is now an independent military analyst, said he didn’t expect ground troops to be committed now.

But, he said, Jordan might launch “very limited special operations with other forces from the coalition possibly in Anbar and Al Raqqa,” he said.