In Baghdad, fears of siege as ISIL militants advance

While experts do not expect the militant group to take control of the capital, they can make Baghdad so miserable that the legitimacy of the central government is undermined.

BAGHDAD // On the western edge of Iraq’s capital, ISIL militants battle government forces and exchange mortar fire, only adding to the sense of siege despite airstrikes by a US-led coalition.

Yet military experts say the militants won’t be able to fight through both government forces and Shiite militias now massed around the capital.

It does, however, put them in a position to wreak havoc in Iraq’s biggest city, with its suicide attacks and other assaults further eroding confidence in the nascent federal government and its troops, whose soldiers already fled the ISIL’s initial lightning advance in June.

“It’s not plausible at this point to envision ISIL taking control of Baghdad, but they can make Baghdad so miserable that it would threaten the legitimacy of the central government,” said Richard Brennan, an Iraq expert with RAND Corporation and former US defence department policymaker.

The siege fears in Baghdad stem from recent gains made by ISIL in the so-called Baghdad Belt – the final stretch between Anbar province, where the group gained ground in January, and Baghdad.

The group has had a presence in the Baghdad Belt since spring, Iraqi officials say, but recent advances have sparked new worries.

Last week, ISIL fighters seized the towns of Hit and neighbouring Kubaisa, sending Iraqi soldiers fleeing and leaving a nearby military base with its stockpile of weapons at risk of capture.

The US-led coalition recently launched two airstrikes north-west of Hit, US Central Command said on Saturday.

Perhaps most worrying, ISIL fighters now battle Iraqi forces in Abu Ghraib, the town home to the infamous prison of the same name that’s only 29 kilometres from the Green Zone, the fortified international zone protecting Baghdad-based embassies and government office.

A senior military official in Anbar said on Saturday that government helicopters fire on targets daily in Abu Ghraib, though the town remains in the hands of security forces.

To the south of Baghdad, security forces fight to hold onto the town of Jurf Al Sukr, and to the north, one Sunni tribe has held onto the town of Duluiyah despite an ISIL onslaught.

However, ISIL fighters have taken over a number of towns in Diyala province, east of Baghdad.

Yet authorities believe an assault to take Baghdad remains unlikely. An Iraqi military and intelligence official each said as many as 60,000 government security personnel, including soldiers and police officers, are currently in position outside the city along the Baghdad Belt. . Still, many remain worried.

“It’s scary,” said Maha Ismail, who recently visited one of Baghdad’s new shopping malls. “But we have seen a lot worse than this so we are gathering despite all the warnings.”

Beyond the US-coordinated airstrikes and the massing of Iraqi troops, the country’s religious and ethnic lines likely will staunch any advance by the Sunni militants of ISIL. From Baghdad further south, Iraq’s population is overwhelmingly Shiite and the lands there are home to some of its most important shrines.

Already, Shiite militias back up government forces in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq.

Such militias, like Iran-supported Asaib Ahl Al Haq and Muqtada Al Sadr’s Mahdi Army, “are battle tested”, said David L Phillips, the director of the Peace-building and Rights Program at Columbia University. Challenging them likely would become a bloody slog for the Islamic State group, he said.

“The militias are not bound by rules of war. “They and [ISIL] share one thing in common: Neither is bound by the Geneva Conventions.”

* Associated Press