The recent arrival of US and Russian heavy and nuclear-capable bombers over the Norwegian Sea renewed fears of a Cold War-style arms race in the Arctic.
US and British officials told The National that this month's deployment of B1 bombers to Norway was about improving operational readiness and to protect the Arctic waters amid growing global competition, especially from Russia.
Defence and regional experts said an increasingly complicated dynamic in the High North and the Arctic Circle would bring an increased risk of conflict unless it was mitigated.
The US sent 200 US Air Force personnel to Norway with an expeditionary B-1 Lancer bomber squadron this week, which is a concern for Moscow.
Two weeks ago, Russia flew Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers over the Barents, Greenland and Norwegian seas.
Russia has about 24,000 kilometres of Arctic coastline and has been mobilising since 2014, when it created an Arctic Command to expand its military presence in the area.
The Arctic region is deemed essential to Russia’s economic vitality.
For the US, Canada and Europe, the region's abundance of rare minerals, oil and gas, and shipping routes makes it important.
With more ice melting because of climate change, there is potential for the Arctic to open up to both rich mineral exploration and tourism.
However, Russia regards the territory as its own economic zone of interest.
US and UK shared concerns about Russia
The US forces focused on the Arctic region usually operate from the UK, meaning the B1 squadron's mission to Norway irked Russia.
The Russian Air Force is preparing its own warplanes and will bring the "Polar powers" competition to centre stage once again.
Without mentioning Russia by name, the US military said it was committed to protecting the Arctic waters as part of its global operations.
A defence official from US Air Forces in Europe and Air Forces Africa command that oversees those deployments said the latest mission was unusual.
"This specific bomber task force deployment is the first-ever forward operation out of Norway," the official told The National.
"By persistently operating with a variety of aircraft and units in Europe, the US Air Force maintains ready and postured forces prepared to respond to and support global operations."
The official said that, faced with a more aggressive Russia and a rising China, a "unified, deliberate and forward-looking approach" was necessary in the region.
“The Arctic’s capacity as a strategic buffer is eroding with advancements by great power competitors, increasing human activity and a changing physical environment,” he said.
The US is developing an “Arctic brigade” to further its footprint in the region, he said.
Russia's growing presence in the Arctic is a concern shared by the US and the UK.
"The Russians have been ramping it up for a period of time," a senior British Royal Navy officer told The National when asked about the Kremlin's expansion in the Arctic Circle.
“They recognised that they were unable to compete across the warship piece and therefore invested heavily in things like the underwater domain and hypersonic cruise missiles – things that deny us an operational advantage.”
He said that Russia's current activity was approaching Cold War levels.
“It’s not unparalleled but it is unusual," he said.
The US and Russia are facing off in the area known as the High North, covering Norway and Russia, with growing numbers of warships and military hardware in the region.
Mike Sfraga, founding director of the Polar Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Centre, said the arrival of US bombers in Norway showed Washington was aware the Arctic landscape had changed.
"This deployment is a clear signal to the Russian Federation that the Arctic is of strategic importance to the United States and is willing and able to deploy advanced defence systems to the region," Mr Sfraga told The National.
"It is yet another step in the US' efforts to be aware of, and active, in a new, globalised Arctic."
He said Russian-US posturing in the Arctic and an escalation of military activities were happening in a more open environment.
“It’s a new ocean opening before our eyes – with all of the likely issues coming to the fore; access to and from the Arctic Ocean, access within the Arctic Ocean, control and management of shipping lanes, access to natural resources,” Mr Sfraga said.
“Communication among and between all eight Arctic nations is imperative.”
The eight Arctic states are Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and the US.
"The Russian Federation has reinvigorated Soviet-era military bases, created a string of modern bases stretching from the Kola Peninsula north to Franz Josef Land, and east to Wrangel Island – a virtual stone's throw to Alaska," said Mr Sfraga.
In its first month, the Biden administration has shown increased willingness to counter Russia on the global stage. But in doing so, it should be vigilant, Mr Sfraga said.
"At the moment, an armed conflict in the Arctic could occur as a result of miscommunication, miscalculation, or an accident," he said.
Clear and open lines of communication are key to preventing conflict.
But Mr Sfraga said the Biden administration should reinforce agreements and commitments already in place to adapt to the changing landscape.
Those include US commitments to the Arctic Council, Arctic Coast Guard Forum, the Central Arctic Ocean Fisheries Agreement "and other binding agreements that reinforce the rule of law, leverage shared equities in governance, research and climate change", he said.
Another policy area the Biden administration could pursue is "reaffirming Alaska's unique and important geographic location and providing applicable military assets there, as well as reinforce US commitments to Norad and Nato", he said.
Russian submarines advantage
Despite the US deployments, Russia holds an advantage.
Their advanced submarines are able to silently pass through waters largely undetected and have caused disquiet among British and US commanders.
"The Russian submarine threat is certainly causing concern because qualitatively they are a very good and very quiet new generation of boats," said Richard Scott, consultant editor at Janes Defence Weekly.
Another threat to Nato fleets are Russia’s hypersonic cruise missiles – such as the Oniks and soon the Zircon that can be launched either from land, a submarine or ship and travel up to speeds of Mach 5 (6,174 kph).
"In terms of reaction time for a fleet, if a hostile missile is flying something above Mach 5, your speed of reaction or your window to defend yourself is going to be very, very limited," said Scott.
With its land mass and need for maritime access, Russia is anxious not to be hemmed in by Nato or other powers, defence analyst Lee Willett said.
“Russia sees the Arctic as its backyard and an area of influence that it would not want to feel squeezed in, so it might well react fairly robustly if it felt threatened," he said.
Although intended to support Nato and other interests, an increased western presence in the area could be interpreted differently by Moscow.
“If Russia perceived a squeeze on its interests in the Black Sea, for example, one way for Russia to reduce the pressure there would be to lash out elsewhere such as the Arctic and that presents a security risk," he said.
"I think there has to be a very careful balance between Nato maintaining a presence in the High North and elsewhere and not risking Russia feeling pressured to the point that it feels forced to react.”
An area that deeply concerns the US and Britain is Russia's Belgorod submarines, which have mini-subs that can be used to tamper with undersea cables that carry important communications.
"The deep-dive capability and ability to tamper with undersea cables are important in both sub-threshold competition and the actual war-fighting scenarios," said Sidharth Kaushal, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.
As tensions increase between Russia and the West in the Arctic waters, more co-ordination within Nato is being recommended to provide deterrence.
"From a threat perspective this is going to require a fairly robust response, for Nato to invest considerably and come up with good means of defeating that threat," said Scott.
“If the Russians are delivering what they claim to be delivering in terms of capability in the Arctic these are certainly things that the alliance has to worry about.”
China’s growing presence
Besides Russia, China's growing interest in the Arctic and its adaption to its changing environment is not going unnoticed in the US.
Last week, a Russian icebreaker made it from China to the Yamal Peninsula in Russia in the first such transit of the Northern Sea Route in winter. Climate change made the passage possible.
“China’s relationship with Russia is, at the moment, largely transactional … but the Chinese have gained operational expertise and domain awareness by working with the Russians,” Mr Sfraga said.
“Globally, [China] plays the long game, so the United States will continue to monitor this relationship as well as other Chinese activities in the Arctic.”
