Shoppers make their way under the Christmas lights along Oxford Street in central London as the country prepares for a second national lockdown amid hopes a vaccine will be available by the end of the year. AFP
Shoppers make their way under the Christmas lights along Oxford Street in central London as the country prepares for a second national lockdown amid hopes a vaccine will be available by the end of the year. AFP
Shoppers make their way under the Christmas lights along Oxford Street in central London as the country prepares for a second national lockdown amid hopes a vaccine will be available by the end of the year. AFP
Shoppers make their way under the Christmas lights along Oxford Street in central London as the country prepares for a second national lockdown amid hopes a vaccine will be available by the end of the

UK gears up for Covid vaccine by Christmas


Paul Peachey
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Britain’s state-run health service is preparing to deliver Covid-19 vaccinations before the end of the year.

The head of the National Health Service (NHS), Simon Stevens, said an agreement had been struck with family doctors – general practitioners (GPs) - to carry out the vaccination programme, if a suitable jab became available.

More than 200 vaccines are in development around the world. Despite hopeful signs from some of the leading contenders, none have yet gone through the full course of testing and proven to work.

Mr Stevens, NHS chief executive, said he hoped that one or more of the vaccines would be available from “the first part of next year”.

But he said the service was gearing up to be ready to make a start on administering Covid-19 vaccines before Christmas “if they become available”.

“We have reached agreement with the GPs to ensure that they will be doing that,” he told the BBC. “We will be writing to GP practices this week to get them geared up to start before Christmas if the vaccine becomes available.”

Later, the director of the trial at Oxford university said there was a "small chance" a vaccine would be ready within that timeframe.

Vaccine trial chief investigator Andrew Pollard told the Science and Technology Committee he is "optimistic" the university could present late-stage results, potentially revealing whether it works, by Christmas.

Asked if the vaccine would be ready by then, he said: "There is a small chance of that being possible but I just don't know.

"Our trials are only one of many that are going on around the world, a number of which may well report before the end of the year."

Kate Bingham, the UK Vaccine Taskforce Chief told the BBC: "If the first two vaccines, or either of them, show that they are both safe and effective, I think there is a possibility that vaccine roll out will start this side of Christmas, but otherwise I think it's more realistic to expect it to be early next year."

Doctors have been asked to be ready to administer the vaccine to people aged over 85 and NHS workers, according to the GP news site Pulse.

The two vaccines most likely to be ready include one from AstraZeneca that requires two shots and another from Pfizer that needs to be stored at minus 70 degrees, Pulse reported. Health teams will also be ready to deliver vaccines for use in care homes.

The UK parliament is expected to approve fresh lockdown rules on Wednesday despite complaints from within Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s own party about the impact on civil liberties.

From Thursday, all non-essential shops, pubs, gyms and most restaurants in England will close for four weeks.

Mr Johnson announced the lockdown on Saturday after data showed the pandemic exceeded the worst-case projections of his scientific advisers.

Mr Johnson had for weeks opposed a second national lockdown but the change of plans has sparked anger from within his own party and business leaders.

The latest planned lockdown is less stringent than in March and April but analysts said that it would probably take the UK into recession this winter.

“The UK economy seems on course for a double-dip recession this winter and a far more challenging path to recovery in 2021,” said economist Tim Moore of financial data company IHS Markit.

British gross domestic product slumped 20% during the longer lockdown in the second quarter of 2020, the biggest decline of any major advanced economy.

Covid-19 cases have risen sharply in Europe and Britain's government fears that hospitals will be overwhelmed if it cannot slow the spread of the disease.

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab tried to placate critics of the new lockdown, saying it would definitely end on December 2, despite senior minister Michael Gove suggesting the measures might have to continue if new infections were not kept in check.

Some rebels from within Mr Johnson’s party are expected to signal their disapproval by voting against the measure on Wednesday but their numbers are too few to stop the lockdown.

Critics of the new curbs have questioned the projections behind the decision, specifically one warning there could be 4,000 deaths per day without intervention, which was delivered by Mr Johnson in a televised presentation on Saturday.

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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?

The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.

Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.

New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.

“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.

The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.

The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.

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