Crucial UK by-election chance to judge coalition

LONDON // Voters will get their first chance to pass judgement on Britain's eight-month-old coalition government when they vote in a crucial parliamentary by-election on Thursday.

Ed Miliband, who succeeded Gordon Brown as Labour leader in the wake of last May's general election defeat, described the vote in Oldham in north-west England as representative of the "big choice for Britain".

Whoever wins will hail it as a major success - either a ringing endorsement of the policies of Britain's first coalition government since the Second World War or, should Labour hold the seat, an outright rejection of the same.

In reality, of course, all governments of whatever hue tend to lose by-elections.

The difference this time centres on the strains it could cause within the coalition, where both partners appear increasingly uneasy about the political direction. Phil Woolas, Labour's former immigration minister, held the Oldham seat in May with a 103-vote majority over the candidate from the Liberal Democrats, the party that subsequently became the junior partner in the coalition when it threw its lot in with the Conservatives.

But Mr Woolas was then barred from public office for three years after an election court ruled he had unlawfully played on voters' fears by falsely accusing his Lib Dem rival, Elwyn Watkins, of courting the votes of Muslim extremists in the constituency.

So on Thursday, voters in the Oldham East and Saddleworth constituency will not only pass their verdict on the coalition government, but also give an early indication of the electoral appeal of Mr Miliband.

Labour's new leader has been criticised for coming up with precious few policies since he narrowly defeated his brother David in the autumn leadership contest.

Instead, he has devoted himself to criticising the coalition's policies, particularly over the deficit-cutting plan involving far-reaching reductions in public-sector spending with the attendant loss of tens of thousands of jobs.

Without offering much in the way of an alternative, Mr Miliband has found this fertile ground, with Labour's standing in the most recent opinion polls averaging about 37 per cent compared to 35 per cent for Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservatives.

But the big losers have been the Liberal Democrats, whose support at 13 per cent is the lowest it has been in five years and 10 points down on what it was in May.

The main reason is that leader, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, and fellow Lib Dem cabinet ministers have reneged on promises not to raise university tuition fees or sales tax.

Instead, to the anguish of many rank-and-file party members, Mr Clegg and his colleagues are going along with a virtual tripling of tuition next year, while sales tax went up from 17.5 per cent to 20 per cent last week.

While Labour is the firm favourite to hold the seat because of the government's unpopularity over spending cuts, local Liberal Democrats believe that the party might yet buck the trend and pull off an unlikely victory.

Aside from the fact that Mr Watkins commands considerable personal support locally - including among many of the 8,300 Muslim voters who make up about 12 per cent of the electorate - there have been suggestions that the Conservatives, although fielding their own candidate, are not putting a great deal of effort into winning the seat for fear of diminishing their coalition partner's chances of victory.

This belief has caused considerable unease among rank-and-file Tories and was only enhanced just before Christmas when, at a press conference, Mr Cameron wished Mr Watkins, rather than his own party's candidate, good luck in the by-election.

Mark Pritchard, a senior Conservative backbench MP and secretary of the party's influential 1922 Committee, demanded "clarity" from the party's leaders over whether they are contemplating an electoral pact with the Lib Dems.

"It is not a criticism of the prime minister, it is an encouragement that the party leadership must understand the mandate for a coalition agreement is a temporary one - it is not a permanent one," Mr Pritchard told the BBC.

But Lib Dem deputy leader Simon Hughes insisted that there was "no deal" with the Conservatives to give Mr Watkins a free run.

Campaigning in Oldham last week, Mr Miliband said there were only two choices for voters - between the coalition parties and their support for savage public spending cuts and the sales tax hike; and Labour, which believes the government is cutting spending "too far and too fast".

But Tim Farron, the Lib Dem president also campaigning in the constituency last week, hit back at Mr Miliband.

"People in Oldham and Saddleworth deserve better than an MP from a party that would've stood idly by and watched Britain head towards Irish-style collapse," he said.

"Tough decisions protect Britain - not opportunistic complaining and blank pages.

"This New Year, the Liberal Democrats are making the positive difference in government. We're all working to clean up after Labour's disastrous 13-year house party. Ed Miliband's still the sulky teenager trying to pretend it wasn't his fault."