After a year of war, the fighting between Russia and Ukraine has hardened into a bitter struggle for territory on the eastern front line.
Russia failed in its first goal of seizing Kyiv and its attempts to capture the east have been set back by military failures and Ukrainian counter-offensives.
Now, all eyes are on which side can gain the upper hand with a spring offensive, as Ukrainian troops learn to operate western tanks.
Phase one: Battle for Kyiv
Russia hoped to land the knockout blow in days.
The dawn invasion began with a three-pronged ground attack from Crimea, Belarus and eastern Ukraine. Missiles flew into Ukrainian command posts and Russia’s Black Sea fleet entered Ukraine’s waters.
Within two days, Russian troops were 30 kilometres from Kyiv and there was fighting in the city’s outskirts.
But the blitzkrieg soon went wrong. Russia faced fierce Ukrainian resistance, struggled with supply lines and needed 10 days to gain a foothold at a Kyiv airport.
“It’s very difficult to account for stupid force employment,” said Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), who said Russia had fired too few missiles and chosen the wrong targets.
Although Russia soon encircled Kharkiv and Mariupol, the column advancing on Kyiv was slowed by fuel shortages and US-provided Javelin anti-tank missiles.
From the streets of the capital, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rallied the resistance with his defiant presence.
By late March, the convoy had dispersed, Ukraine had retaken towns and it was clear Russia had failed to encircle Kyiv. The capture of southern Kherson was Russia’s only major victory.
On March 29, Russia announced it was scaling down operations near the capital. While Moscow framed the retreat as a peace offering, it was clear Ukraine had won the battle for Kyiv.
Phase two: Struggle for Donbas
After defeat in Kyiv, Russia turned its focus to the eastern Donbas region.
With heavy fighting and shelling, it sought to occupy the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk where Kremlin-backed separatists had held territory since 2014.
In a particularly bitter struggle, Russia claimed control of the Donetsk city of Mariupol after besieging a steelworks from which hundreds of civilians were evacuated.
By early July, Ukraine’s troops had been forced out of the city of Sieverodonetsk, their last major stronghold in the Luhansk.
Elsewhere, the two sides blamed each other for fighting near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that led to fears of a radioactive nightmare.
Russia’s gains made it confident enough to arrange spurious referendums in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia that prompted President Vladimir Putin to announce their annexation.
But it lacked control over large parts of the four territories, especially in Donetsk, where Russia was making slow progress towards the city of Kramatorsk.
Russia also had the sinking of the Black Sea flagship Moskva, and reports of planes being shot down by friendly fire, to add to its list of setbacks.
Phase three: Ukrainian offensive
The rapid gains of Ukraine’s autumn counter-offensive caught many by surprise.
Ukrainian troops reclaimed thousands of square kilometres of territory in a matter of days, forcing Russia towards the border near Kharkiv.
Russia appeared to have fallen into a trap by moving troops south in anticipation of a battle for Kherson, leaving its forces thinly spread in the north.
Ukraine was credited with making good use of US-provided HIMARS rocket launches to destroy bridges and cut off Russian supply lines.
In November, Ukraine retook Kherson, reversing one of Russia’s most significant victories and making a mockery of the supposed annexation.
Russia responded to the setbacks by announcing a partial mobilisation, calling up reservists and former soldiers.
As the cold set in, it began pounding Ukrainian infrastructure with long-range missiles and Iranian-supplied drones.
The strikes left millions without power but were seen by Ukraine’s allies as an admission of Russian failure on the battlefield.
Phase four: Winter stalemate … and now?
Ukraine’s momentum did not last into winter, during which each side has taken heavy casualties without making significant gains on the front line.
In a bitter scrap for territory, Ukraine has clung to the city of Bakhmut but there are doubts about how long it can hold off a Russian encirclement.
Russia has likewise made gains around the town of Vuhledar but has yet to capture it despite inflicting substantial losses.
“Over the course of the winter, we saw the Ukrainians slowing down their offensive operations, trying to keep the Russians in the field but essentially preserve their combat power,” Mr Watling of Rusi said.
Russia has put its armed forces chief Valery Gerasimov in direct command of the invasion as it prepares a spring offensive.
One western official this week described the offensive so far as “more of a whimper than what we would have expected”, and expressed hope that the arrival of western tanks would help Ukraine make gains.
A Kyiv residential building - February 2022 and February 2023
“We've seen the Russians effectively set their defensive line once they were pushed out of Kharkiv,” they said.
“The Ukrainians have got a different challenge to meet. They need to go on the offensive if they’re going to take back territory. The way they can do that is by using manoeuvre rather than being stuck in a trench line which they are predominantly at the moment.”
Leaders on both sides are steeling their countries for a drawn-out conflict, with Britain’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace on Thursday saying the war could well last another year.
As The National has witnessed, Ukrainian recruits undergoing training in Britain are being readied for a house-to-house, trench-to-trench conflict that many have compared to the First World War.
Mr Watling said the Russian offensive could either stretch Ukraine’s forces, preventing them from taking the initiative, or fail to make breakthroughs and leave some Ukrainian troops free to go on the attack.
“The next two to three months are likely to be decisive in setting the terms of exchange for the military conflict over the next year, and therefore determine how long this conflict protracts,” he said.
One year of the Russia-Ukraine war - in pictures
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February 24 will be a year since Russia started the Ukraine war. The National picks out the most powerful images from the conflict. AFP -
A member of Ukraine's 79th Air Assault Brigade fires a rocket-propelled grenade at Russian positions near Marinka in February. Reuters -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy addresses MPs in Westminster Hall, London, in February 2023. Getty Images -
Destroyed buildings 32km west of the front lines in Donetsk in January. Getty Images -
An anti-aircraft gun in January fires at Russian positions near Bakhmut, Donetsk. Reuters -
Destruction in the village of Bohorodychne, Donetsk. AFP -
A Ukrainian artilleryman discards an empty shell on the outskirts of Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, in December 2022. AFP -
Children receive presents from a Ukrainian soldier dressed as Santa on Christmas Eve in Sloviansk. Getty Images -
More than 1,000 missiles and rockets fired by Russian forces collected for cataloguing in Kharkiv in December 2022. Getty Images -
The Metro provides shelter as Russia launches another missile attack on Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, in December 2022. Getty Images -
Children at a PE class in Kyiv after Russia abandoned its attempt to seize the capital in November 2022. Getty Images -
A sniper searches for Russian positions on the bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson in November 2022. Getty Images -
Graffiti by Banksy on a wall among the debris in Borodyanka in November 2022. Getty Images -
Ukrainian flags flutter around graves in a cemetery for soldiers killed in action in Kharkiv in October 2022. Getty Images -
Parts of a drone, which Ukrainian authorities said was Iranian-made, after a Russian strike in Kyiv in October 2022. Reuters -
An elderly woman is helped across a damaged bridge in Bakhmut in October 2022. Getty Images -
Fuel tanks ablaze on damaged sections of the Kerch bridge in Crimea, in October 2022. Reuters -
A destroyed bridge makes crossing the Donets river difficult, in Staryi Saltiv, east of Kharkiv, in September 2022. AFP -
Firefighters at a thermal power plant in Kharkiv damaged by a Russian missile strike in September 2022. Reuters -
Ukrainian soldier Oleksandr with his daughter Nikole at Lviv railway station in August 2022. Getty Images -
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and then-British prime minister Boris Johnson read a plaque in Kyiv in August 2022 dedicated to the latter for his support. Getty Images -
Destroyed Russian military equipment on Khreshchatyk street in Kyiv. The materiel was turned into an open-air military museum ahead of Ukraine's Independence Day on August 24. AFP -
Shakhtar Donetsk v Metalist Kharkiv kicks off the Ukrainian Premier League season in August 2022 amid fears of bomb and missile alerts. EPA -
Ukrainian servicemen fire an American-made 155mm M777 howitzer in July 2022 in the Kharkiv area. EPA -
A bomb crater on the Antonovsky bridge across the Dnipro river in Kherson, July 2022. AFP -
Maksym and Andrii with plastic guns at a 'checkpoint' they set up while playing in Kharkiv, July 2022. AP -
Ukrainian troops on Snake Island in June 2022. Reuters -
A woman evacuated from an area of conflict in June 2022 contemplates what the next move might be. AP -
Romanian President Klaus Iohannis, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Kyiv in June 2022. Getty Images -
Graves in Irpin cemetery, May 2022. Getty Images -
A Ukrainian soldier trapped within the besieged Azovstal Iron and Steel Works complex in Mariupol in May 2022. Reuters -
The wreckage of a Russian helicopter in a bomb-cratered field in Biskvitne, May 2022. Getty Images -
A Ukrainian army officer inspects a grain warehouse shelled by Russian forces in May 2022 near Novovorontsovka, Kherson. Getty Images -
A boy from Mariupol arriving at an evacuation point in Zaporizhzhia in May 2022. Getty Images -
A Russian serviceman on guard outside Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in May 2022. AFP -
Oksana searches for salvageable items on the destroyed second floor of her home in Hostomel, April 2022. Getty Images -
A floral memorial wall in Lviv for Ukrainian civilians killed during the Russian invasion, April 2022. Getty Images -
People fleeing Lviv, eastern Ukraine, in April 2022, wait for a bus that will take them to Poland. Getty Images -
A Russian soldier patrols a bombed Mariupol theatre in April 2022, as Moscow intensified its campaign to take the strategic port city. AFP -
A Ukrainian celebrates success in Hostomel in April 2022. Getty Images -
Julia Palovskaya reads to children during an air raid drill in the basement shelter at a preschool in Lviv, April 2022. Getty Images -
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Bucha in April 2022, where hundreds of bodies were found in the street and it was claimed the Russian leadership was responsible for killing civilians. AFP -
Oleh Smolin, 23, who suffered leg injuries from Russian shelling in April 2022, in hospital in Chuhuiv. Getty Images -
Fleeing refugees arrive at the border train station of Zahony, Hungary, in March 2022. Getty Images -
A father says goodbye to his daughter on an evacuation train about to leave Odesa in March 2022. AFP -
Ukrainians under a destroyed bridge as they try to cross the Irpin river on the outskirts of Kyiv in March 2022. AP -
People cram into Kyiv station to catch trains to Poland or to western parts of Ukraine, shortly after the initial invasion in February 2022. Getty Images -
A demonstration in support of Ukraine in Trafalgar Square, London, February 2022 . Getty Images -
Russian army vehicles in Armyansk, Crimea, in February 2022. AFP -
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 25, 2022, in a video on Facebook. He said 'we are all here', shortly after the Russian invasion began. AFP -
A residential building damaged by a missile strike in Kyiv in February 2022. Getty Images -
A metro station in Kyiv in February 2022, crowded with people trying to escape the invasion. AFP -
A police officer addresses people gathered to protest against the invasion of Ukraine, in central Saint Petersburg, Russia, February 2022. AFP -
A protester in support of Ukraine, in Berlin, Germany, in February 2022. Getty Images -
Ukrainian soldiers prepare to repel an attack in Ukraine's Lugansk region on February 24, 2022. AFP -
Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv on February 24, 2022, after Russia launched a full-scale invasion. AFP -
A mass exodus from Kyiv after pre-offensive missile strikes by Russian armed forces on February 24, 2022. Getty Images -
Security personnel inspect the remains of a shell in Kyiv on February 24, 2022, soon after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine. AFP -
CCTV footage shows Russian military equipment crossing a Crimea border checkpoint on February 24, 2022. AFP -
Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin early on February 24, 2022, when he announced a 'military operation' in Ukraine. AFP
