At 7.30am local time, the Munich Security Conference began its official, but closed-door, programme, with a series of breakfasts tackling issues of security, diplomacy and how to mitigate the many risks facing the world.
However, it will be at 1.30pm that the public programme and official opening kicks off, with a session entitled “International Co-operation in a time of mounting crises and meeting global challenges”.
While the session includes the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres as the main representative of “international co-operation”, it is dominated by Europe and the US, with their global viewpoints.
German Minister for Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken will address the conference, followed by US Vice President Kamala Harris.
There is a sense of change across the board in Munich this year.
A new German government is taking the helm and its key actors, including the chancellor, foreign and defence ministers, are speaking on stage and holding a multitude of meetings to unveil their policies and approach to global affairs.
It is also the meeting in which Wolfgang Ischinger, chairman of the Munich Security Conference, will hand over the leadership of the conference after 14 years.
Christoph Heusgen, who has often been described as former German chancellor Angela Merkel’s closest diplomatic and security adviser, takes the helm at this conference and gives a sense of continuity that many who cherished Ms Merkel’s approach will appreciate.
A notable absence this year will be the security and foreign policy situation in Afghanistan after last summer's withdrawal of US and Nato forces from the country. While a handful of sessions at this year's summit will address the issue of militancy, there are no dedicated sessions on the Afghanistan and little attention being paid. No representative from the country will be in attendance either.
Twenty years after the invasion of Afghanistan, it appears the policy and security leaders in Europe and America would rather step away from probing the disastrous withdrawal, to heal transatlantic rifts and disagreements.
Of course, the unifying factor is the shadow of a possible war in Ukraine.
There is a marked absence of Russian officials and diplomats from the event, with a multitude of side meetings and discussions on how to deal with Russia and the possibility of war.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is among a number of Ukrainians attending the conference.
The question of “will Russian President Vladimir Putin invade?” is hanging over the event, with a wider question of how Europe and Nato will emerge from this current crisis, having not yet dealt with the ramifications of the Afghanistan withdrawal six months ago.
The issues of climate, the Sahel and the possibility of a nuclear deal with Iran are expected to be tackled, but are in many ways secondary to Ukraine discussions and developments.
Of course, one major change at the Munich Security Conference this year is the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Delegates attending the conference began to congregate on Thursday, with many trying to figure out the intricate and detailed instructions given by the organisers about Covid-19 measures.
In addition to daily Covid-19 testing and the need for proof of vaccination, the organisers have initiated a system of daily colour-coded wristbands and face masks to quell any Covid-19 cases.
Without a negative PCR test result in the past 24 hours, no delegate can attend the conference – and there are no exceptions.
One thing this event does not want to be remembered for is as a super-spreader event. If it can succeed in bringing hundreds of people together in close contact, it could end up setting a precedent for how international gatherings can happen in the current climate.
Even more importantly, it does not want to be remembered as the event where western leaders gathered to talk as Mr Putin acted on the ground.
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
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Global state-owned investor ranking by size
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United States
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China
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UAE
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Japan
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Norway
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Canada
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Singapore
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Australia
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Saudi Arabia
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South Korea
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