Defence and security chiefs were challenged on Monday to shake off a “feeling of helplessness” which analysts say is taking hold in the West amid a seemingly never-ending cascade of crises.
A report to be handed to policymakers at this week’s Munich Security Conference said liberal democracies appeared to feel overwhelmed by the threats of coronavirus, climate change and a range of security problems.
It came after a year in which Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, humiliating the West and raising fears of a renewed terrorist threat, while Eastern Europe moved to the brink of war in a continuing stand-off over Ukraine.
Polling cited by the report showed a lack of confidence in countries such as the UK, US and France that they could influence global events such as these.
Analysts said this could become a self-fulfilling prophecy in which dispirited countries fail to take action even when it is within their means.
“Societies that are overrun by a wave of crises might just accept what befalls them, even if they have the means and resources to do something about it,” said Dr Tobias Bunde, one of the eight authors of the report.
“Do we believe that we are helpless, or can we win our confidence back?”
Conference organisers said the report was meant as a challenge to delegates in Munich, who will include the heads of Nato, the United Nations and the European Union as well as dozens of heads of state and government.
The annual event, likened to the World Economic Forum in Davos, is returning to an in-person format this year after the disruption of the pandemic.
Vice President Kamala Harris will represent the US, while German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will attend for the first time since he succeeded Angela Merkel in December.
Wolfgang Ischinger, the chairman of the conference, said Russia had turned down the chance to send a delegate at a time of high tension between Moscow and the West.
Mr Scholz is on a two-day trip to Kiev and Moscow beginning on Monday in what is seen as a last-ditch attempt to avert a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Asked if he thought the conference would open under a cloud of war in Ukraine, Mr Ischinger said: “As a diplomat you always have to be optimistic.”
The 180-page report said the past year had done nothing to improve geopolitical optimism after the collapse of Afghanistan, growing tension in Eastern Europe and an attempt to overthrow American democracy.
It said people in the industrialised world were not sure whether humanity could come together to tackle climate change as the cost of wildfire, drought and flooding begins to mount.
Polling showed increasing doubts in the UK, US and Germany that other countries would meet their climate commitments, despite the mood of urgency at last year’s Cop26 summit in Glasgow.
Analysts produced what they called a security index for G7 countries, showing climate change and associated risks as the number one threat to Britain, Germany and Italy.
Radical Islamic terrorism was named as the main threat facing France, in rankings based on a mixture of public opinion and expert analysis.
In the US, climate change was regarded as a lesser threat by the public compared to cyberattacks, political polarisation and economic strife.
In the face of these problems, many people “seem to conclude that it will not be possible to solve humanity’s most challenging problems”, the report said.
“While still being the world’s best hope, liberal democracies, and the transatlantic partners in particular, need to prove that they have the right answers to today’s challenges.”
