Health chiefs in South Africa have warned that despite a strict lockdown the country faces a peak in coronavirus cases over the summer, just as Africa is expected to see the outbreak hit hard in dozens of countries.
A World Health Organisation and World Economic Forum webinar on Thursday heard that the African continent was only just starting to experience a wave of Covid 19 infections.
There are concerns that crowded cities will experience widespread infection if drastic measures isolation measures are taken. Already experts are warning that Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania’s main city, is an “epicentre” for infection sending potential super-spreaders across East Africa.
Dr Zwelini Mkhize, South Africa’s Minister of Health, said the peak period for the pandemic in his country will be between July and September.
South Africa, which has 5350 confirmed Covid 19 cases and 104 deaths, has enforced strict lockdown measures and carried out more tests than other African country.
“But it is bit early to explain what the mortality rate will be," he told the meeting. "Africa has largely been behind rest of world, so early days for us.”
South Africa hopes to being easing lockdown measures on a region by region, as cities like Cape Town now had an infection rate that was “rising”.
Other African countries potentially face a dramatic increase in infections that could spiral out of control. The WHO has concerns over Tanzania, where the president suggested steam inhalation to combat the virus. The country was slow to close places of worship and markets. Tanzanian trucker drivers are also thought to have spread the virus beyond the country’s borders.
Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa, said: “We are working on the ground to advise governments, with our experience from other countries, to take policy decisions based on data to get on top of the situation.
She also warned African countries about ignoring outbreaks in cities. “We are very concerned about West Africa where we are seeing it spread in communities. Lockdowns are not easy decisions to make. If there is no lockdown then there needs to be an awareness of the virus spreading in cities. We need to stop spread of this pandemic that could have long and profound effect on economies.”
Professor Kojo Koram, an epidemiologist advising the Ghanaian government, said while lockdown could work for a short time in the capital Accra the reality was that the poorer people had “to make their daily bread”.
“You have to be aware that scientific advice has to be managed in context with other things. In Accra the argument over livelihood has outweighed scientific advice. We have to then recalibrate advice and ease restrictions a little bit. We are all learning as we go along.”
He added that funerals had been restricted to 25 people rather than mass gatherings.
Wars in the Sahel, Libya, Somalia and DRC, make it difficult for people to be treated. There are fears that over-crowded refugee camps could be severely hit. So far remote areas have not reported infection.
With few testing kits available, many African countries are resorting to methods used in other outbreaks such as cholera, called ‘case definition’, in which they rely on symptoms to diagnose cases. So far there are just 34,000 confirmed Covid 19 cases in all Africa.
In the last few weeks a handful of African countries – Namibia, Seychelles and Mauritania - have reported zero cases
