BEIRUT // Even when Syria peace talks in Geneva were still alive in early April, the Syrian government was already bragging about an impending assault on Aleppo to drive rebels from the city.
As Russia and the US spoke in recent days of the need for a recommitment to the February cessation of hostilities agreement between rebel and government forces that is now in tatters, air strikes pounded rebel-held parts of Aleppo, killing scores of civilians and destroying medical facilities.
And when a recommitment to that truce finally came into effect on Saturday, it excluded Aleppo, the place that has seen the most violence in the country of late.
While touting the line that it is committed to the peace process and the truce agreed upon in February, the Syrian government has continued to prepare to retake Aleppo, openly contradicting its participation in the now stalled and potentially dead Geneva talks.
To the government, Aleppo remains the major prize at this point in the war. As Syria’s largest city before the conflict began, routing the rebels from Aleppo would be a huge morale boost for supporters of the government.
For the rebels, losing Aleppo would be a disastrous blow. They would no longer have a foothold in any of Syria’s major cities. The rebels would go from holding part of what is perhaps the country’s most important city to only having strongholds in the country’s backwaters. Symbolically, the rebels have been able to hold on to parts of Aleppo for nearly four years now, long giving the opposition some hope even as some of their other bastions such as Homs fell.
Recapturing all of Aleppo could put the Syrian government in a significantly better position to negotiate an end to the conflict that favours the regime. That is, of course, if they truly want to negotiate an end to the war.
The government has also remained focused on Aleppo as they believe it is a battle they can now win. The rebels in Aleppo are beaten down, nearly cornered and have little backup. In the weeks before the February 27 truce brokered by the US and Russia, rebel units around Aleppo suffered major losses as pro-government forces backed by heavy Russian air strikes made lightning gains. Rebel units were thrown into retreat and they quickly lost the main route linking rebel-held Aleppo to the Turkish border. By the time a ceasefire was called, only a narrow strip of territory connected rebels hunkered down in the city with their fellow fighters elsewhere in north-western Syria.
With the ceasefire now dead in Aleppo, the rebels in the city find themselves in the same dire situation. This time however, it appears pro-government forces have put themselves in a better position to take the city by deploying additional troops and Russian artillery to the area. Rebels north of Aleppo have been cut off from the city and are now stuck in a shrinking pocket between Kurdish YPG fighters, ISIL and the Turkish border.
There are also signs that the US may be giving up on rebels in Aleppo as a siege of the city appears imminent.
Last week, US military spokesman Col Steve Warren said “it’s primarily Al Nusra who holds Aleppo”, referring to Al Qaeda’s Syria branch Jabhat Al Nusra and adopting a line often repeated by the Syrian government and Russia. Observers of the conflict say mainstream Syrian rebels represent the bulk of forces in Aleppo, though Al Nusra is in fact dominant in parts of Aleppo province outside the city.
On Twitter on Saturday, Human Rights Watch executive director Kenneth Roth accused the US of inviting “devastating attacks” on Aleppo by “fixating on Nusra presence”.
Announcing the recommitment to a cessation of hostilities in northern Latakia and Eastern Ghouta on Friday, the US special envoy for Syria Michael Ratney called the continued violence in Aleppo “unacceptable”.
Later on Friday, state department spokesman Mark Toner denied the US was giving up on Aleppo, saying that they hope that if the truces in Latakia and Eastern Ghouta go well, it could pave the way for a reduction of violence in Aleppo.
While Moscow and Damascus have repeatedly stressed their commitment to finding a negotiated peace, rebels and observers have viewed their participation in the peace process as a trick or stalling tactic to better prepare for the Aleppo fight. The US too has cautiously held on to the belief that the negotiations are real. If an assault on Aleppo comes, it should settle the debate.
jwood@thenational.ae
