Beijing // Barack Obama and John McCain, the US presidential candidates, announced their strategies for dealing with China this week, both advocating closer ties and co-operation on trade issues, nuclear non-proliferation, climate change and geopolitics. Neither candidate, however, announced any concrete polices or anything surprising. In fact, they barely differed.
The strategies were posted on Sunday on the website of the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing and will be published in China Brief, the chamber's magazine, on Monday.
Mr Obama said the United States and China face challenges that will require "fresh thinking" in the coming years, but he provided no example of what this would be.
The Democratic senator was a bit more conciliatory than Mr McCain, accepting mutual responsibility for some of the differences between the two sides. "The United States and China have heavy, if different, responsibilities to meet this vital challenge," he said. "For too long, however, each has pointed a finger at the other's attitudes as an excuse for not itself doing more. That must stop."
He said the United States and China, as the world's two largest consumers of oil and the two largest emitters of greenhouse gases, had to work together to reduce climate change. He called on China to make basic adjustments to ensure its sustained economic growth, including adopting practices that are "more environmentally sustainable and less energy intensive".
Mr Obama said that, as the world's largest economy, the United States must make serious adjustments to remain competitive in the 21st century, including ending the "fiscal irresponsibility" that has led to record high deficits and a record low savings rate, breaking the US addiction to oil, and investing in renewable technologies and energy efficiency.
He took a slightly stronger stance on trade issues, calling on China to "play by the rules" in world trade. He said China's current growth is unbalanced and called on Beijing to increase falling domestic demand by improving its social safety net and upgrading its financial services sector "to bring its consumption in line with international norms".
Central to rebalancing the economic relationship between the two countries, Mr Obama said, was a change in China's currency practices. "Because it pegs its currency at an artificially low rate, China is running massive current account surpluses," he said. "This is not good for American firms and workers, and not good for the world, and ultimately likely to produce inflation problems in China itself."
He vowed that as president he would "use all diplomatic avenues available" to seek a change in Beijing's currency policies, to make a serious effort to combat intellectual property piracy and to deal with regulations in China that discriminate against foreign investors and other unfair trading practices.
Mr Obama called for the two militaries to improve the quality of contacts and the quality of their engagement, and while noting real differences between the two sides, he said he looked to China to work with the United States to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, halt genocide in Darfur and to stop the slide towards anarchy in Zimbabwe.
He said protecting human rights and moving towards democracy and rule of law would better enable China to reach its full potential. "Such a change will not weaken China, as its leaders may fear, but will provide a firmer basis for long-term stability and prosperity," he said.
Mr McCain said the United States needed to remain unequivocally committed to Asia and free trade. Taking a swipe at his Democratic rival, Mr McCain said that "some American politicians - including the Democratic candidate for president - are preying on fears stoked by Asia's dynamism; rather than encouraging American innovation and entrepreneurship, they instead propose throwing up protectionist walls that will leave us all worse off".
Despite his argument for free trade, Mr McCain echoed almost the same words as his opponent, however, urging China to meet its obligations and commit to opening its markets and protecting intellectual property rights and to co-operate to address the problem of climate change.
Mr McCain said China's growing power and influence obligated it to be a "responsible stakeholder in global politics" and said it should show its intentions by being more transparent about what he called Beijing's "significant military build-up" and by working with the world to "isolate pariah states". Finally, he called on China to guarantee the human rights of its citizens.
Although Sino-US relations have not been a central issue in the US presidential election so far, relations between the two countries are bound to be a challenge for the next president of the United States. But it is unlikely that there will be any fresh new initiatives towards China.
Some Republicans charge that Mr Obama will adopt dangerous protectionist policies towards China. However, the Democratic candidate has surrounded himself with a team of prominent China advisers, many with former links to Bill Clinton, and it is anticipated that Mr Obama's China policy will be similar to that of the Clinton administration's.
These advisers include Anthony Lake, a former national security adviser; Jeffrey Bader, a former member of the national security committee; Ken Lieberthal, another Clinton-era member of the committee; Mike Lampton of the Nixon Center; Evan Mederios of the Rand Institute, and Derek Mitchell, former special assistant for Asian and Pacific affairs. Some of this group are known to be realists regarding China, if not conciliatory.
Every US candidate for president in recent years has taken a tough public stance on China regarding trade and human rights, with the exception of George H W Bush, the current president's father. However, usually within the first six months to a year of taking office, economic and political realities pull the new administration back towards the centre and softer polices. This is exactly what happened during the Clinton and Bush administrations.
In the final analysis, America's common interests with China far outweigh the differences. Despite the tough talk, little should be expected in the way of real change, no matter who gets elected in November.
pmooney@thenational.ae
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
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“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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