North Korea threatened with 'stern punishment' over sinking of frigate

Analysts differ on the feasibility of armed conflict after an inquiry into the sinking of a South Korean warship points to a torpedo attack by the North.

BEIJING // An international inquiry yesterday officially held North Korea responsible for the fatal sinking of a South Korean frigate that broke in two following an explosion in March, killing 46 South Korean sailors. In response to the deadliest incident in the Korean Peninsula since the 1950-53 civil war, Seoul reaffirmed its vow of retaliation, saying there would be "stern punishment".

North Korea immediately shot back, denying its involvement and threatening a "full-scale war" against any attempt to impose sanctions. Analysts said the outcome of the investigation with well-expected conclusions marked the beginning of an uncertain period of escalated tensions in the region, with the focus on what role China, a longtime enabler of North Korea, would play in the dispute. South Korea is looking to the UN Security Council to take action against North Korea, but China is a permanent Council member with veto power.

"China is in a difficult and delicate position," said Jiang Wenran, the chair of the China Institute at the University of Alberta in Canada who is currently visiting Beijing. A team of military and civilian investigators from the United States, Britain, Australia, Sweden and the host South Korea yesterday said that a North Korean submarine was the culprit that torpedoed the 88-metre Cheonan. During a nationally aired press briefing, Yoon Duk-yong, the head of the investigative team, displayed parts of a North Korean torpedo collected from the scene of the ship sinking near the disputed sea border. The evidence, which was lifted from the seabed just five days before, also had a handwritten mark, "Number One," in the Korean language, consistent with a similar marking found on a stray North Korean torpedo secured by the South Korean military seven years ago, Mr Yoon said.

"We will take resolute countermeasures against North Korea and make it admit its wrongdoings," the South Korean president Lee Myung-bak's office cited him as saying during a phone conversation he had with the Australian prime minister, Kevin Rudd. North Korea's National Defense Commission, whose chairman is Kim Jong-il, the country's leader, issued a statement accusing the South of "pointing a dirty finger at us like a thief". It claimed the investigation was "sheer fabrication".

"Our army and people will promptly react to any sanctions infringing on our national interests with tough measures including an all-out war," the North's statement said. Although Seoul publicly vowed retaliation, and South Korea's conservative media outlets are clamouring for revenge, Cha Du-hyeogn, the director of North Korean studies at the state-run Korea Institute for Defence Analyses in Seoul, said South Korea would likely shy away from an actual military response.

Paik Hak-soon, a security analyst at the Sejong Institute, a think tank in Seoul, agreed: "Military options are possible in rhetoric, but not in reality." Analysts outside South Korea assessed the situation a bit differently. "In the past, announcements like this were frequently followed by missile tests, expanded military exercises, refusal to participate in international negotiations and/or continued threats," said Joseph Bermudez, a military analyst for Jane's Intelligence Review and author of The Armed Forces of North Korea.

"This presents a situation where the responses by all sides could lead to unintended consequences," Mr Bermudez said. North Korea offered to dispatch an inspection team to the South to "verify" the South's evidence. The local JoongAng Ilbo newspaper said the South government was put in a dilemma whether to accept the North's surprise proposal. "It clearly shows that North Korea didn't do it," said Cui Zhiying, the director of the Korean Peninsula Research Centre at Tongji University in Shanghai.

Mr Cha refuted that view, saying the North's gesture was to woo China and Russia, two Cold War allies of North Korea, to its side. Some analysts fear the possibility of formation of two opposing wings of ideological blocs, with China, North Korea and Russia on one side and South Korea, the US and Japan on the other. "I wouldn't say it's the start of a new Cold War. But the current situation adds instability in the East Asia," said Mr Paik, the analyst in Seoul.

Mr Jiang agreed: "I am not optimistic. We are entering a phase of new crisis. South Korea wants justice. But North Korea has never been known as backing down." He expects China's response on the matter will be muted. "I would be very surprised if Beijing would come out and say, 'Yes, we're going to join the international community in condemning North Korea'." @Email:[e-mail]