Members of the Afghan security forces in the district of Karokh, in Herat, Afghanistan, on March 16, 2021.EPA
Members of the Afghan security forces in the district of Karokh, in Herat, Afghanistan, on March 16, 2021.EPA
Members of the Afghan security forces in the district of Karokh, in Herat, Afghanistan, on March 16, 2021.EPA
Members of the Afghan security forces in the district of Karokh, in Herat, Afghanistan, on March 16, 2021.EPA

In Afghanistan's peace talks, those with the most to lose are least represented


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Najibullah Afghanmal is almost as old as the conflict in his home country of Afghanistan and in 20 years has lost seven family members in the violence.

"Two of my brothers were killed in the last five years alone during Taliban ambushes of our village. We were forced to leave the town during the most recent attack and are now living in Internally Displaced Persons camps," Mr Afghanmal, who used to work for a small business, told The National.

More than 100,000 Afghan civilians have died in the conflict, which began in October 2011, when US forces made strikes on Taliban and Al Qaeda forces in response to the 9/11 terrorist attack.

Since then, the steadily increasing violence, personal losses and displacement have left Mr Afghanmal, and hundreds of thousands more, with little hope for the outcome of the ongoing peace negotiations between the Afghan government and Taliban militants in Qatar's capital of Doha since August 2020.

The latest round of talks is due to begin on Thursday as high-level delegations from the Taliban and Afghan government visit Moscow. The US, Pakistan and China will also be in attendance.

“Had these talks been based on humanity and mutual respect, then there might’ve been some hope. But it is clear that this is only a power struggle between all sides – a crisis in which we, the poor Afghans, will continue to be sacrificed in their wars,” he said.

"They both [Taliban and Afghan government] want to control the country, and there is no best-case scenario here," he said, though if the Taliban returned to power, Afghan youth and women will be the biggest losers.

“The women in our family that either study or work will have to stop. I will also have to give up my dreams of going to university for higher education ... although those dreams already seem bleak,” he said.

Mr Afghanmal’s pessimism was shared by Basira Paigham, 24, from the northern province of Samangan.

“My biggest fear is that we will lose any progress we have hardly achieved in the last two decades in the negotiation happening abroad. The Taliban still don’t recognise that many of our values of human rights, gender equality align with our culture and traditions,” she said.

Ms Paigham, 25, who works as a gender specialist at an NGO, survived a major Taliban attack on the National Directorate of Security office in her province last year, and her inner scars hadn’t been healed yet.

“When the explosion happened, I was pushed down and passed out. I thought I was dead, and my only thought was, what about all my dreams, plans and hopes?” she recalled.

As young victims of war and stakeholders in the country’s future, neither Mr Afghanmal nor Ms Paigham find their voices represented at any of the international conferences.

“Those negotiating peace have themselves been party to the violence and conflict. How can they represent me?” Ms Paigham said.

“If the Taliban return I can lose my job, my freedom, my basic rights, my dignity. For me it will not be the end of a conflict, rather a continuation of our fight against fundamentalism, because I am not willing to give up my values and rights,” she said.

For Afghan human rights activists, achieving justice for the civilian victims of war is pivotal for any peace process.

“Any justice or peace installed in the absence of civilian victims of the war cannot be meaningful or sustainable,” said Mariam Atahi, a human rights activist from Kabul.

“Victims of the war should be the centre of the negotiation and peace process, otherwise there will not be a healing process, without which you can’t expect us to embrace, welcome and integrate the Taliban who have killed our loved ones,” she said.

With the violence still ongoing and at a far larger scale, the number of civilian victims who seek resolution is mounting daily.

“We should be able to discuss and debate this during the peace process, before any reconciliation is reached,” Ms Atahi said. “And that will not be possible without voices representing the victims.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

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