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Operatives working for Ahmad Massoud, the 32-year-old resistance leader commanding anti-Taliban forces in the Panjshir valley in north-eastern Afghanistan, have contacted the new Taliban government in Kabul and proposed a deal, a representative of Mr Massoud told The National.
The precise terms of Mr Massoud’s proposal to the Taliban are confidential, said Mahdi Housaini, an aide to Mr Massoud authorised to speak on his behalf.
But the broad outlines include a commitment from the Taliban not to attempt entry to the valley, and to give other political parties a say in their new government.
Mr Massoud commands a force of several thousand men, who are holed up in Panjshir, which is surrounded on all sides by Taliban-held territory.
They have been joined by upwards of 100 soldiers from the Afghan National Army Commando Corps, who retreated to the valley last weekend, as it became clear that the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul was assured.
They have brought with them a fleet of armoured personnel carriers and attack helicopters, Mr Housaini says.
He also stated that Afghanistan’s former vice president, Amrullah Saleh, is in the valley. Mr Saleh has not publicly confirmed that he is in Panjshir, though he has written on social media channels that he is still inside Afghanistan.
Panjshir is the only one of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces that has not been taken by the Taliban.
On Tuesday, Mr Saleh invoked the Afghan constitution to declare himself President, in the wake of former president Ashraf Ghani’s unexpected departure from Kabul.
Mr Saleh’s claim, which has not yet been publicly recognised by Mr Massoud, may be a “possible negotiating tactic” designed to strengthen Mr Saleh’s hand in any future talks with the Taliban, Mr Housaini suggests.
But Mr Housaini insists that Mr Massoud and Mr Saleh form a united front.
It is unclear how Taliban officials have reacted to Mr Massoud’s proposal, though Mr Housaini indicated that they have reached out with a proposal of their own, the details of which remain confidential.
According to Mr Housaini, Mr Massoud is prepared to resist the Taliban militarily, but would prefer a diplomatic solution to the present stand-off. He has not ruled out joining a Taliban-led government, under the conditions of his proposal.
“He is willing to forgive the assassination of his father if the Taliban are sincere and want peace,” Mr Housaini said. Mr Massoud’s father, Ahmad Shah Massoud, was a famed Afghan resistance commander during the Afghan-Soviet war in the 1980s. He was assassinated in 2001 at the hands of Taliban-allied Al Qaeda operatives posing as television journalists.
The Panjshir Valley, which is home to a population of 200,000 people, hosts more than 20 small “military bases”. There, sources say, Mr Massoud’s commanders are training young men from the province for any future combat.
The Panjshiris are confident that the Taliban will refrain from any attempts to take the valley militarily, but Mr Massoud has not ruled out the possibility.
There is talk among the province’s leaders about how to secure vulnerable segments of the population, should fighting break out. Among the options is a plan to evacuate women and children to areas outside the province, even if they are under Taliban control.
At the same time, Panjshir is taking in refugees from elsewhere in Afghanistan, including members of the ethnic Hazara population, who were previously persecuted by the Taliban, provided they are able to reach the province via the valley's main road or the few mountain passes that are traversable by foot.
Refugees, Mr Housaini says, have already arrived via roads on which the Taliban has not yet set up checkpoints, and are currently being sheltered by Panjshiri families in their homes. He emphasises, however, that the humanitarian situation is fragile, and will need outside support in order to be sustainable.
The Taliban is currently outmaneuvering the Panjshiris on the public relations front. National news channels, which are now regulated by the Taliban, have made little reference to the ongoing resistance in the valley.
The Taliban is also at an advanced stage in its efforts to establish diplomatic relations with neighbouring states, some of whom had supported the Panjshiris financially and militarily in past anti-Taliban resistance efforts.
Mr Housaini says that the Panjshiris have established their own lines of communication with foreign powers, including Central Asian countries, in part for the purpose of ensuring that aerial supply lines remain open, but that they are aware that foreign support is not as assured as it has been in the past.
Virtually every household in the province is armed, and Mr Massoud’s men are braced to defend the valley indefinitely, should talks between Mr Massoud and the Talban fail. Nonetheless, Mr Housaini says, “we need all the help we can get”.
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Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
One in nine do not have enough to eat
Created in 1961, the World Food Programme is pledged to fight hunger worldwide as well as providing emergency food assistance in a crisis.
One of the organisation’s goals is the Zero Hunger Pledge, adopted by the international community in 2015 as one of the 17 Sustainable Goals for Sustainable Development, to end world hunger by 2030.
The WFP, a branch of the United Nations, is funded by voluntary donations from governments, businesses and private donations.
Almost two thirds of its operations currently take place in conflict zones, where it is calculated that people are more than three times likely to suffer from malnutrition than in peaceful countries.
It is currently estimated that one in nine people globally do not have enough to eat.
On any one day, the WFP estimates that it has 5,000 lorries, 20 ships and 70 aircraft on the move.
Outside emergencies, the WFP provides school meals to up to 25 million children in 63 countries, while working with communities to improve nutrition. Where possible, it buys supplies from developing countries to cut down transport cost and boost local economies.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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