The European Union is scrambling to set up a parallel naval coalition in the Red Sea following US and UK air strikes on Yemen's Houthis in a move that could further complicate operations to keep trade routes open.
“In the case of a possible EU mission in the Red Sea, I can only state that the process has started,” the EU Commission's lead foreign affairs and security policy spokesman Peter Stano told The National.
“Further discussions are being conducted to assess further options to enhance the EU's and member states' contribution to uphold freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the region, in co-operation with our partners.”
Naval experts said the risk of Houthi retaliation could grow and extra support from Nato allies would help defend shipping in the region.
IISS think tank
Nick Childs, a maritime expert at the IISS think tank, warned that the Houthis could resort to using suicide drone boats or mines in the Red Sea if their other capabilities were curtailed by the air strikes.
“The question really is whether the Houthis will back up the rhetoric we've seen, with some further acts of defiance,” he told The National.
“There are other options that they have available, for example, uncrewed surface vessel with explosives on board.
“They could also use mines but given their potentially indiscriminate effect, for them then to sustain the argument that they’re targeting only Israeli-associated shipping or protecting warships would be difficult, although many believe it’s got beyond that already”.
'Unconventional tactics'
He also suggested the Houthis would be able to do “what Ukrainians have done against the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, to employ unconventional tactics” to attack shipping.
But naval planners, including those members of Nato yet to deploy to the Red Sea, will now be examining intelligence to decide what to do next.
“I think that that is what naval planners will be looking at is trying to gain the Houthis’ next moves,” Mr Childs said.
If the rebels were to resort to violent tactics, then that “might require a further round of dissuasion” in terms of air strikes.
Another key issue is avoiding an “escalation path” with more strikes and naval ships in the region that could draw in other states, including Iran.
“It suits Iran's agenda to be putting pressure on the US and the West but question marks over how far Iran would wish to push it, as Iran may not be very keen on a direct confrontation,” Mr Childs said.
A defence source added that it was now a question of “waiting to see what they [Houthis] might consider doing in response” to the UK and US raids.
“It will almost certainly be something, because that’s who they are,” the source said. “But they also know now that every action will have a reaction and hopefully that may constrain them.”
The strikes were not unanimously welcomed across Europe, with some countries showing more enthusiasm in their support than others.
The move may complicate relations between the US and states that have deployed to the Red Sea, most notably Nato ally France.
The Netherlands was the only European country to provide support, albeit in non-combat form, to the bombardments.
The Hague deployed one staff officer following a US request, Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren told the Dutch Parliament in a letter.
Other EU countries, including Denmark and Germany, signalled political support by co-signing a White House statement, but did not provide concrete assistance.
“These precision strikes were intended to disrupt and degrade the capabilities the Houthis use to threaten global trade and the lives of international mariners in one of the world’s most critical waterways,” read the statement.
Nato echoed this support and also pointed at Iran's responsability in the Houthi attacks.
"The Houthi attacks must end," acting spokesperson Dylan White told The National.
"Houthi forces are supported, supplied and equipped by Iran. So Tehran has a special responsibility to rein in its proxies.”
Veiled criticism
But some traditional US allies, including France and Norway, have adopted a more cautious approach despite both countries taking part in the US-led maritime coalition to safeguard maritime traffic from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Named Prosperity Guardian, the coalition includes more than 20 countries, though not all have publicly disclosed their participation.
France and Norway, however, are part of a list made public by US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin on December 18, along with Canada, Bahrain, the UK and others.
Using careful diplomatic language, Oslo criticised earlier this month a “last warning” issued by the White House and several other countries threatening “consequences” for Houthi attacks.
“It was not within our inclination to support the statement released by the US authorities regarding the situation in the Red Sea on 3 January,” said Foreign Affairs Minister Espen Barth Eide two days after the warning was issued.
Norway is in contact with the Houthis “to help reduce the level of conflict”, he said.
The Scandinavian country has one of the largest merchant fleets in the world. One of its tankers was attacked by the Houthis on December 12.
France also signalled that it preferred to not get involved in the strikes despite a heavy military presence in the region. Paris deployed the Languedoc frigate on December 8 to primarily escort French commercial ships. French surveillance planes based in the UAE, Djibouti and the Levant also fly over the area.
The Languedoc “currently constitutes the backbone of the French response as it demonstrated at the beginning of December on several occasions; it is capable of reacting to threats in the area, whether drone threats or suicide missions”, Rear Admiral Emmanuel Slaars said on Thursday.
He added that while France was part of the US-led coalition, its forces remained under national command and there was “no subordination” to its American partner.
French and American ships, however, share information in real time, he said.
“It’s in the spirit of allied co-operation and for the benefit of international law that France announced its participation to operation Prosperity Guardian,” he said.
Fears of escalation
On Friday morning, the French Foreign Affairs Ministry issued a statement condemning the Houthis but did not mention the US and UK bombings.
“France reiterates its condemnation of attacks carried out by the Houthis in the Red Sea against commercial vessels which violate navigation rights and freedoms and demands that the Houthis put an immediate end to them,” it said.
The ministry did not answer questions sent by The National seeking further clarification on France’s position.
Analysts say that France’s low-key response signals a fear that air strikes might further heighten tension as the war in Gaza, which triggered the escalation in Houthi attacks, enters its fourth month.
“French officials believe that striking Yemeni territory in a more offensive than defensive posture poses a very significant risk for a regional escalation,” said Laure Foucher, senior Middle East fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research think tank.
“The impact on trade via the Red Sea is not viewed as important enough to risk that escalation,” Ms Foucher told The National.
“Paris probably prefers to focus on diplomatic efforts in resolving the crisis in Gaza in order to put an end to the risk of regional escalation.”
The French deployment in the Red Sea has resulted in a “reduced number” of commercial ships being hit by Houthis since early December, and no crew members were hurt or killed, said Admiral Slaars.
Maritime traffic in the Red Sea has dropped by 22 per cent in the past month as many ships reroute via the southern tip of Africa, where traffic has increased by 45 per cent, according to Admiral Slaars.
