Tropical Storm Bret tracker: Heavy rains and flooding expected in eastern Caribbean

Barbados, St Lucia, Martinique and Dominica put on high alert as forecasters warn of landslides and waves of up to four metres

A tropical storm in Haiti in 2012. Tropical Storm Bret could pose a hurricane threat to Haiti by the weekend. EPA

Tropical Storm Bret is expected to hit some eastern Caribbean nations, bringing with it potential torrential rains on Wednesday.

Bret was moving westward across the Atlantic Ocean at 28kph, with maximum sustained winds of 85kph on Tuesday night, the National Hurricane Centre in Miami said.

The centre said it had been unable to get “a better handle on the system’s intensity and size”.

The storm was 1,170km east of the Windward Islands and expected to hit some eastern Caribbean islands on Thursday at near hurricane strength.

A tropical storm watch was issued for Barbados, St Lucia, Martinique and Dominica, where the meteorological service said Tuesday that the storm posed a “high threat” to the island and warned of landslides, flooding and waves of up to four metres.

“Landslides are highly likely as we are coming out of a relatively dry period where grounds may be compromised or developed cracks,” said Fitzroy Pascal of Dominica’s Office of Disaster Management.

The NHC urged people in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to closely monitor the storm and have their hurricane plans in place.

“Given the uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where Bret’s associated hazards could occur,” it said.

Will Tropical Storm Bret become a hurricane?

The NHC said on Monday that the storm was building in the central Atlantic and could become a hurricane within a few days.

Early on Tuesday, Bret reached maximum sustained winds of 65kph as it moved about 1,945km east of the Windward Islands.

“The system should be approaching the Lesser Antilles by late this week,” the centre said.

Forecasters said it could pose a hurricane threat to the eastern Caribbean by Thursday and the Dominican Republic and Haiti by the weekend.

Bret is forecast to unleash floods heavy rain and a dangerous storm surge and waves as it moves across the Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday.

It is then expected to weaken slowly while still in the eastern Caribbean region, although the centre warned that its forecast “remains a low confidence prediction”.

“Everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for this system and have their hurricane plan in place,” the centre said.

It said Bret could turn north or continue west into the Caribbean and threaten the Dominican Republic, Haiti and other islands.

“There continues to be larger than usual uncertainty,” it said.

How common are hurricanes in the Atlantic?

Almost a century has passed since a storm last strengthened into a hurricane in the tropical Atlantic in June, Philip Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University, said on Twitter. The last such storm recorded was the Trinidad hurricane in 1933.

Tropical Storm Arlene, the first storm to be named in the 2023 season, formed earlier this month but weakened after two days, never threatening landfall.

A subtropical storm formed in the Atlantic Basin in January.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has forecast 12 to 17 named storms for this year's hurricane season.

It said between five and nine of those storms could become hurricanes, including up to four major hurricanes of category three or higher.

A tropical disturbance that is trailing Bret has a 50 per cent chance of formation, the centre said.