Ukraine’s western allies risk a “suboptimal outcome” if they pressure Kyiv into launching its much-anticipated counter-offensive against Russia too soon, the former head of US forces in Afghanistan has told The National.
“Leave them alone. Let them do this when they’re ready,” Gen John Allen, who also led the Nato international security assistance force, said on Tuesday on the sidelines of a defence forum in Slovakia’s capital Bratislava.
What is at stake is both the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and the credibility of the Ukrainian military, he said. Most Europeans support Ukraine in its war against Russia, but support is on the decline in some neighbouring countries such as Slovakia.
“The worse that could happen is if we force them to go early and they have a suboptimal outcome. Then there’s no-one to blame but ourselves, and a lot of wonderful Ukrainian troops will pay the price for it,” said the retired general.
The conflict reached both the Russian and Ukrainian capitals this week, with intensified Russian missile attacks that killed four people and wounded 34, including two children, on Tuesday, according to Ukrainian officials.
Another 11 were injured in Kyiv by Iran-made Shahed drones launched by Russia. A 33-year-old woman died on her balcony when debris from a destroyed Russian projectile hit a Kyiv building.
In parallel, mysterious drone attacks hit a wealthy Moscow area on Tuesday, in a rare attack on the Russian capital. Russia says all drones were intercepted and that two people were injured.
An aide to Ukraine’s President denied that his country was behind the attack but said he was “pleased to watch” it.
The US is Ukraine’s most important military ally and has provided the war-torn country with close to $38 billion military assistance since Russia’s invasion last year.
Ukraine has been expected to launch a spring counter-offensive but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said earlier this month his country needed more time to prepare.
There has been speculation among senior European officials attending the GlobSec forum in Bratislava about what such a large-scale military operation could achieve.
While many hope that Ukraine will eventually regain all its territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea, some, including Gen Allen, have warned that Ukraine will probably need several counter-offensives, not just one.
“We need all to have an appetite suppressant here,” Gen Allen told The National.
“We need to be very careful about assuming that as a result of this [counter-offensive], this will be the great Napoleonic decisive blow and the Russians are going to collapse.
"The Russians are going to take a terrible beating, frankly, but getting through those obstacle belts – that’s a hard fight.”
Obstacles facing the Ukrainian military include “multiple lines of [anti] tank ditches, dragon’s teeth, barbed wire, fortified positions with interlocking fire [crossfire],” added Gen Allen.
“I’m telling you, it’s a tough fight to get through those belts, but the Ukrainians are working on it right now.”
When it finally happens, this new phase in the war is still expected to be decisive for Ukraine.
“[It is] not this push that will get them into Crimea, but this push may set the conditions for the Russians to really start thinking about whether they want to stay in this fight or not,” said Gen Allen.
Gen Allen did not reveal which countries he believed had been putting Kyiv under pressure. However, Czech President Petr Pavel said in March that Ukraine needs to launch a major counter-offensive within the next months and that if it fails, it would be "extremely difficult to get funding for the next one".
Also speaking at GlobSec, Ukraine’s State Secretary for Defence Kostiantyn Vashchenko said on a panel on Monday that the counter-offensive would start in “several days”.
Mr Vashchenko described discussions about the attack as part of Ukraine’s psychological warfare against Russia, which he views as nervously awaiting Ukraine’s onslaught.
Gen Allen also stressed the importance of “shaping the information space”.
“We are a bit short-sighted in viewing war and conflict as being the same,” he said.
“The physical dimension of this war is in many ways being waged in the larger conflict of competing information, narrative and cyber operations.”
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Men from Barca's class of 99
Crystal Palace - Frank de Boer
Everton - Ronald Koeman
Manchester City - Pep Guardiola
Manchester United - Jose Mourinho
Southampton - Mauricio Pellegrino
MATCH INFO
Rugby World Cup (all times UAE)
Final: England v South Africa, Saturday, 1pm
Zakat definitions
Zakat: an Arabic word meaning ‘to cleanse’ or ‘purification’.
Nisab: the minimum amount that a Muslim must have before being obliged to pay zakat. Traditionally, the nisab threshold was 87.48 grams of gold, or 612.36 grams of silver. The monetary value of the nisab therefore varies by current prices and currencies.
Zakat Al Mal: the ‘cleansing’ of wealth, as one of the five pillars of Islam; a spiritual duty for all Muslims meeting the ‘nisab’ wealth criteria in a lunar year, to pay 2.5 per cent of their wealth in alms to the deserving and needy.
Zakat Al Fitr: a donation to charity given during Ramadan, before Eid Al Fitr, in the form of food. Every adult Muslim who possesses food in excess of the needs of themselves and their family must pay two qadahs (an old measure just over 2 kilograms) of flour, wheat, barley or rice from each person in a household, as a minimum.
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Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sep 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Most F1 world titles
7 — Michael Schumacher (1994, ’95, 2000, ’01 ’02, ’03, ’04)
7 — Lewis Hamilton (2008, ’14,’15, ’17, ’18, ’19, ’20)
5 — Juan Manuel Fangio (1951, ’54, ’55, ’56, ’57)
4 — Alain Prost (1985, ’86, ’89, ’93)
4 — Sebastian Vettel (2010, ’11, ’12, ’13)
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
