Current climate policies will expose more than a fifth of humans to dangerously hot temperatures by 2100, a study says.
Despite the Paris Agreement pledge to keep global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, projections are that current policies will result in 2.7°C warming by the end of the century.
Scientists from the Global Systems Institute of the University of Exeter, associated with the Earth Commission and Nanjing University, say that about 60 million people are already exposed to an average temperature of 29°C or higher, which is classed as dangerous heat.
Two billion – 22 per cent of the projected end-of-century population – would be exposed to this at 2.7°C of global warming.
“The costs of global warming are often expressed in financial terms, but our study highlights the phenomenal human cost of failing to tackle the climate emergency,” said Prof Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.
The paper, 'Quantifying the Human Cost of Global Warming', highlights the “huge potential” for decisive climate policy to limit the human cost of climate change. It says rapid action to cut greenhouse gas emissions can prevent most of the damage.
“Limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.7°C would mean five times fewer people in 2100 being exposed to dangerous heat,” said Prof Lenton.
The research, was published in the journal Nature Sustainability, defines the concept of a human “niche”.
It says that human population density peaks in places with an average temperature of about 13°C, with a secondary peak at about 27°C, especially in South Asia.
Although less than 1 per cent of humans currently live in places of dangerous heat exposure, the study shows that climate change has already put 9 per cent of the global population – more than 600 million people- outside the niche.
“Most of these people lived near the cooler 13°C peak of the niche and are now in the ‘middle ground’ between the two peaks. While not dangerously hot, these conditions tend to be much drier and have not historically supported dense human populations,” said Prof Chi Xu, of Nanjing University.
While some cooler places may become more habitable due to climate change, population growth is projected to be highest in places at risk of dangerous heat, especially India and Nigeria, the study found.
Assuming a future population of 9.5 billion people, India would have the greatest population exposed at 2.7°C global warming – more than 600 million.
At 1.5°C, this figure would be far lower, at about 90 million.
Prof Marten Scheffer, of Wageningen University, said the economic costs of carbon emissions “hardly reflects the impact on human well-being”.
“Our calculations now help bridge this gap and should stimulate asking new, unorthodox questions about justice,” he said.
The study found that some countries such as Burkina Faso and Mali would become almost completely dangerously hot with a 2.7°C temperature increase.
Brazil would have the largest land area exposed to dangerous heat.
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Consoles: PC, PlayStation 4/5, Xbox Series X/S
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1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
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8. Pillar 2 implementation
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9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
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2004 Beat Andy Roddick
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2007 Beat Rafael Nadal
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2012 Beat Andy Murray
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Ali Azeem, business leader
Tony Booth, professor of education
Lord Browne, former BP chief executive
Dr Mohamed El-Erian, economist
Professor Wyn Evans, astrophysicist
Dr Mark Mann, scientist
Gina MIller, anti-Brexit campaigner
Lord Smith, former Cabinet minister
Sandi Toksvig, broadcaster
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