India is set to overtake China as the world’s most populous country by the end of April, the UN said on Monday.
The South Asian nation is expected to reach 1.425 billion people, “matching and then surpassing” the population of mainland China, the global body found in its latest estimates and projections.
“China’s population reached its peak size of 1.426 billion in 2022 and has started to fall,” it said.
“Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could drop below one billion before the end of the century.
“By contrast, India’s population is expected to continue growing for several decades.”
The UN's John Wilmoth said the organisation's population report last week had predicted that India would surpass China by the middle of this year, but that estimate had been made using data from last year.
The projection announced on Monday is based on more recent data, though still an estimate, he said.
"The precise timing of when this crossover occurs is not known for sure and it will never be known," he said.
The number of people aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China between 2023 and 2050, and the increase will be “more than double” in India, the report said.
“As a proportion of the total population, the growth of the older population in India will be much slower than in China,” the report said.
India had expected to overtake its neighbour as the most populous nation by the end of this year after Beijing announced in January that its population had fallen for the first time in 60 years, to 1.44 billion.
While the Asian countries represent 19 and 18 per cent of the world’s population, respectively, population growth in both has been slowing, but more rapidly in China.
Official figures from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed the mainland had 850,000 fewer people at the end of last year than in the previous year, whereas India’s population grew from 358 million in 1951 to 1.2 billion in 2011, according to the last census.
India releases its census every 10 years, but did not conduct the exercise in 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Sara Hertog, populations officer at the UN, said that her organisation only had an approximation of when India's population would overtake China, after they "interpolated population figures to identify the month of April as the likely timing of that crossover," she told The National.
"Given the limitations of the available data, there is substantial uncertainty around that estimate and the specific date is subject to future revision as new information becomes available," she said.
"India’s population is expected to continue to grow for several decades, although at a declining rate given that the level of fertility has fallen steadily over the past half-century. The medium projection indicates that India’s population could reach its peak size around 2064."
Both nations had “nearly identical levels of fertility” in 1971, the UN reported, with fewer than six births per woman over a lifetime. But fertility in China fell sharply to fewer than three births per woman by the end of the 1970s.
"It took three and a half decades for India to experience the same fertility reduction that occurred in China over just seven years during the 1970s," said Mr Wilmoth.
China had one of the world’s lowest fertility rates in 2022, at 1.2 births per woman, the UN said.
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
