Lebanon braces for a drawn-out battle for the presidency after elections


Jamie Prentis
  • English
  • Arabic

It took 46 sessions and 29 months for Lebanon’s parliament to finally elect President Michel Aoun in 2016, ending a stalemate that laid bare the deep and numerous divisions in Lebanese politics.

The term of the octogenarian former army chief will end in October 2022. Even with a new parliament in place after elections this month, it sets the scene for another potentially protracted wait over selecting Lebanon’s next head of state.

In Lebanon’s confessional political scene, by convention, the president is always a Maronite Christian. It may narrow down the candidates, but competition is tough for the top Christian job.

“It's not easy to pick the president. You won't have the ideal person you want,” said Samy Gemayel, the leader of the Christian Kataeb party, pointing to the difficulties of obtaining a majority in a deeply fragmented political system. His father Amine served as president from 1982 to 1988 after his uncle Bachir Gemayel was elected president but assassinated in a bombing in 1982 before taking office.

“You would have to find someone that is moderate and that is capable of talking to everyone and finding solutions to the problems,” said Mr Gemayel, a strong critic of Hezbollah, the militant group and political party.

Since 2019, Lebanon has suffered a devastating economic collapse and the local currency has depreciated by more than 90 per cent. Much of the population has been plunged into poverty, and there are widespread shortages in medicine, electricity and other basic supplies.

Along with the huge reforms needed to tackle this crisis, the task of electing the next president falls to Lebanon’s new parliament after nationwide elections on May 15.

Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies — including the Free Patriotic Movement party that Mr Aoun founded — lost their parliamentary majority, while opponents gained ground. It also ushered in 13 anti-establishment MPs, many linked to the October 2019 nationwide protests against the incumbent political parties.

If anything, those elections only hardened the divisions in the legislature which faces the more immediate tasks of electing its speaker and forming a government.

“This election result has produced the perfect scenario for a prolonged governance stalemate, shedding doubt as to whether the newly elected parliament can form a government or elect a president,” said Imad Salamey, a political analyst and professor at the Lebanese American University.

“It is deeply divided and fragmented, with a large number of anti-system parliamentarians who will have a difficult time reaching consensus with traditional parties. This will only deepen the crisis of the confessional regime and turn the prospect of electing a new president highly unlikely.”

  • Workers remove sections of the concrete barrier, which was erected by Lebanese security forces in 2020 to bar access to streets leading to the country's parliament building, at the entrance of the Lebanese Parliament in the capital Beirut. AFP
    Workers remove sections of the concrete barrier, which was erected by Lebanese security forces in 2020 to bar access to streets leading to the country's parliament building, at the entrance of the Lebanese Parliament in the capital Beirut. AFP
  • Lebanese authorities have ordered that the concrete barriers that have blocked access to the Parliament building since 2019 be removed. EPA
    Lebanese authorities have ordered that the concrete barriers that have blocked access to the Parliament building since 2019 be removed. EPA
  • The blockade was put in place after nationwide protests against Lebanon's ruling classes broke out. EPA
    The blockade was put in place after nationwide protests against Lebanon's ruling classes broke out. EPA
  • The removal of the barrier comes after parliamentary elections on May 15. EPA
    The removal of the barrier comes after parliamentary elections on May 15. EPA
  • Among those elected were 13 independent opposition MPs — many of whom were linked to the uprising in 2019. AFP
    Among those elected were 13 independent opposition MPs — many of whom were linked to the uprising in 2019. AFP
  • Of the independents, 12 will be entering Parliament for the first time, most of whom had previously called for the barriers to be taken down. AP
    Of the independents, 12 will be entering Parliament for the first time, most of whom had previously called for the barriers to be taken down. AP
  • New MP Elias Jradi said: 'There are no walls that rise between the representatives of the nation and citizens.' EPA
    New MP Elias Jradi said: 'There are no walls that rise between the representatives of the nation and citizens.' EPA
  • The blocks were being carted away and workers cleaned the surrounding streets. EPA
    The blocks were being carted away and workers cleaned the surrounding streets. EPA

From May 2014, when the term of president Michel Suleiman ended, numerous parliamentary sessions never went anywhere after the initial candidates failed to obtain the necessary majority.

Some parties, particularly Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, boycotted the sessions as they sought to get their favoured candidates into the top job via the traditional back-room negotiations — as a result, the required parliamentary quorum was not met.

The stalemate began to ease when Mr Aoun unexpectedly received grudging support from some of his main foes. In January 2016, arch Hezbollah critic and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea backed his rival, Mr Aoun, for the presidency after the parties reconciled. That support was followed in October 2016 by that of Saad Hariri and his Sunni-led Future Movement, ending the impasse — with Mr Hariri becoming prime minister in return.

According to the Lebanese constitution, a two-thirds majority is required to win in the first round. If that does not happen, in the second round only an absolute majority is needed — or 65 votes in the 128-seat chamber.

Many have been talked about as potential presidents.

It has long been said that Mr Aoun is grooming Gebran Bassil, his son-in-law and successor as party leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, to succeed him. But Mr Bassil is a deeply divisive figure and his party lost seats in the election.

Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh was another main contender in the previous elections, while there are suggestions that Mr Geagea, who now heads the largest Christian bloc in parliament, may also run.

Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, predicted that a new president would not be in place this autumn.

He also suggested that army commander Joseph Aoun could be a dark horse, pointing to the historical precedent of military chiefs ascending to the Lebanese presidency.

Mr Gemayel is another name that has been talked of and he says the Kataeb party, which has five seats in the parliament, will not back “anyone who will not be able to tackle the issue of the weapons of Hezbollah. Because any president that comes [in] and is not willing to open up the subject of the weapons of Hezbollah and put it on the table and discuss it and try to find the solution for it — for us, he would be an ally of Hezbollah”.

But the reality is that the parliamentary election results may not have too much of an impact. Almost all of Lebanon’s previous presidents since independence from France in 1943 have been elected after agreements or interventions between regional or world powers, and Lebanon’s rival parties.

“I think both sides of the political chessboard in Lebanon might have overestimated the impact of the legislative elections on the race for the presidency," said Karim Bitar, professor at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

Ultimately, Prof Bitar said, the parliamentary elections will not make or break a candidate.

“Whatever arithmetic majority controls the parliament, is never enough to make a president. Losing a parliamentary election is certainly symbolically significant. But ultimately, as has always been the case, the president will have to be elected after a compromise is reached and it will most probably be a candidate that does not face a veto from any of the major actors.

“What I would say is that the outcome of these legislative elections indicates that a likely scenario would be the election of a consensual president.

“It would no longer be the ‘strong president’ idea that has been peddled in the past few years by the Free Patriotic Movement. It will not necessarily be a Christian politician with significant popular backing. The preferable scenario given the current landscape in parliament would be the election of a consensual figure … a figure that would be able to talk to all sides, to help mitigate the crisis,” he said.

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
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Results

6pm: Dubai Trophy – Conditions (TB) $100,000 (Turf) 1,200m 

Winner: Silent Speech, William Buick (jockey), Charlie Appleby
(trainer) 

6.35pm: Jumeirah Derby Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (T)
1,800m 

Winner: Island Falcon, Frankie Dettori, Saeed bin Suroor 

7.10pm: UAE 2000 Guineas Trial – Conditions (TB) $60,000 (Dirt)
1,400m 

Winner: Rawy, Mickael Barzalona, Salem bin Ghadayer 

7.45pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,800m 

Winner: Desert Fire, Hector Crouch, Saeed bin Suroor 

8.20pm: Al Fahidi Fort – Group 2 (TB) $180,000 (T) 1,400m 

Winner: Naval Crown, William Buick, Charlie Appleby 

8.55pm: Dubawi Stakes – Group 3 (TB) $150,000 (D) 1,200m 

Winner: Al Tariq, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watsons 

9.30pm: Aliyah – Rated Conditions (TB) $80,000 (D) 2,000m 

Winner: Dubai Icon, Patrick Cosgrave, Saeed bin Suroor  

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirectors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EVarious%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Nicola%20Coughlan%2C%20Luke%20Newton%2C%20Jonathan%20Bailey%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E3%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

The rules on fostering in the UAE

A foster couple or family must:

  • be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
  • not be younger than 25 years old
  • not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
  • be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
  • have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
  • undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
  • A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
THE BIO

Ms Davison came to Dubai from Kerala after her marriage in 1996 when she was 21-years-old

Since 2001, Ms Davison has worked at many affordable schools such as Our Own English High School in Sharjah, and The Apple International School and Amled School in Dubai

Favourite Book: The Alchemist

Favourite quote: Failing to prepare is preparing to fail

Favourite place to Travel to: Vienna

Favourite cuisine: Italian food

Favourite Movie : Scent of a Woman

 

 

Stage result

1. Jasper Philipsen (Bel) Alpecin-Fenix 4:42:34

2. Sam Bennett (Irl) Bora-Hansgrohe

3. Elia Viviani (Ita) Ineos Grenadiers

4. Dylan Groenewegen (Ned) BikeExchange-Jayco

5. Emils Liepins (Lat) Trek-Segafredo

6. Arnaud Demare (Fra) Groupama-FDJ

7. Max Kanter (Ger) Movistar Team

8. Olav Kooij (Ned) Jumbo-Visma

9. Tom Devriendt (Bel) Intermarché-Wanty-Gobert Matériaux

10. Pascal Ackermann (Ger) UAE Team Emirate

Singham Again

Director: Rohit Shetty

Stars: Ajay Devgn, Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ranveer Singh, Akshay Kumar, Tiger Shroff, Deepika Padukone

Rating: 3/5

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%3Cp%3E38.7C%20(101.7F)%20set%20in%20Cambridge%20in%202019%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Tightening the screw on rogue recruiters

The UAE overhauled the procedure to recruit housemaids and domestic workers with a law in 2017 to protect low-income labour from being exploited.

 Only recruitment companies authorised by the government are permitted as part of Tadbeer, a network of labour ministry-regulated centres.

A contract must be drawn up for domestic workers, the wages and job offer clearly stating the nature of work.

The contract stating the wages, work entailed and accommodation must be sent to the employee in their home country before they depart for the UAE.

The contract will be signed by the employer and employee when the domestic worker arrives in the UAE.

Only recruitment agencies registered with the ministry can undertake recruitment and employment applications for domestic workers.

Penalties for illegal recruitment in the UAE include fines of up to Dh100,000 and imprisonment

But agents not authorised by the government sidestep the law by illegally getting women into the country on visit visas.

Avengers: Endgame

Directors: Anthony Russo, Joe Russo

Starring: Robert Downey Jr, Chris Evans, Scarlett Johansson, Chris Hemsworth, Josh Brolin

4/5 stars 

Skoda Superb Specs

Engine: 2-litre TSI petrol

Power: 190hp

Torque: 320Nm

Price: From Dh147,000

Available: Now

AIR
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Company profile

Date started: December 24, 2018

Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer

Based: Dubai Media City

Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)

Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech

Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year

Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020

Lexus LX700h specs

Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor

Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm

Transmission: 10-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh590,000

Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

Name: Peter Dicce

Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics

Favourite sport: soccer

Favourite team: Bayern Munich

Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer

Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates 

 

The specs: 2018 Ford F-150

Price, base / as tested: Dh173,250 / Dh178,500

Engine: 5.0-litre V8

Power: 395hp @ 5,000rpm

Torque: 555Nm @ 2,750rpm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Fuel consumption, combined: 12.4L / 100km

info-box

COMPANY PROFILE

Company name: Happy Tenant

Started: January 2019

Co-founders: Joe Moufarrej and Umar Rana

Based: Dubai

Sector: Technology, real-estate

Initial investment: Dh2.5 million

Investors: Self-funded

Total customers: 4,000

Founders: Ines Mena, Claudia Ribas, Simona Agolini, Nourhan Hassan and Therese Hundt

Date started: January 2017, app launched November 2017

Based: Dubai, UAE

Sector: Private/Retail/Leisure

Number of Employees: 18 employees, including full-time and flexible workers

Funding stage and size: Seed round completed Q4 2019 - $1m raised

Funders: Oman Technology Fund, 500 Startups, Vision Ventures, Seedstars, Mindshift Capital, Delta Partners Ventures, with support from the OQAL Angel Investor Network and UAE Business Angels

Business Insights
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  • US domestic suppliers might benefit from higher prices, but overall oil consumption is expected to decrease due to elevated costs
ABU%20DHABI'S%20KEY%20TOURISM%20GOALS%3A%20BY%20THE%20NUMBERS
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FIGHT CARD

From 5.30pm in the following order:

Featherweight

Marcelo Pontes (BRA) v Azouz Anwar (EGY)

Catchweight 90kg

Moustafa Rashid Nada (KSA) v Imad Al Howayeck (LEB)

Welterweight

Mohammed Al Khatib (JOR) v Gimbat Ismailov (RUS)

Flyweight (women)

Lucie Bertaud (FRA) v Kelig Pinson (BEL)

Lightweight

Alexandru Chitoran (BEL) v Regelo Enumerables Jr (PHI)

Catchweight 100kg

Mohamed Ali (EGY) v Marc Vleiger (NED)

Featherweight

James Bishop (AUS) v Mark Valerio (PHI)

Welterweight

Gerson Carvalho (BRA) v Abdelghani Saber (EGY)

Middleweight 

Bakhtiyar Abbasov (AZE) v Igor Litoshik (BLR)

Bantamweight:

Fabio Mello (BRA) v Mark Alcoba (PHI)

Welterweight

Ahmed Labban (LEB) v Magomedsultan Magemedsultanov (RUS)

Bantamweight

Trent Girdham (AUS) v Jayson Margallo (PHI)

Lightweight

Usman Nurmagomedov (RUS) v Roman Golovinov (UKR)

Middleweight

Tarek Suleiman (SYR) v Steve Kennedy (AUS)

Lightweight

Dan Moret (USA) v Anton Kuivanen (FIN)

RACE CARD

6.30pm: Madjani Stakes Group 2 (PA) Dh97,500 (Dirt) 1,900m
7.05pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,400m
7.40pm: Maiden (TB) Dh82,500 (D) 1,600m
8.15pm: Handicap (TB) Dh87,500 (D) 2,200m
8.50pm: Dubai Creek Mile Listed (TB) Dh132,500 (D) 1,600m
9.25pm: Conditions (TB) Dh120,000 (D) 1,900m
10pm: Handicap (TB) Dh92,500 (D) 1,400m

Updated: May 27, 2022, 6:00 PM