It took 46 sessions and 29 months for Lebanon’s parliament to finally elect President Michel Aoun in 2016, ending a stalemate that laid bare the deep and numerous divisions in Lebanese politics.
The term of the octogenarian former army chief will end in October 2022. Even with a new parliament in place after elections this month, it sets the scene for another potentially protracted wait over selecting Lebanon’s next head of state.
In Lebanon’s confessional political scene, by convention, the president is always a Maronite Christian. It may narrow down the candidates, but competition is tough for the top Christian job.
“It's not easy to pick the president. You won't have the ideal person you want,” said Samy Gemayel, the leader of the Christian Kataeb party, pointing to the difficulties of obtaining a majority in a deeply fragmented political system. His father Amine served as president from 1982 to 1988 after his uncle Bachir Gemayel was elected president but assassinated in a bombing in 1982 before taking office.
“You would have to find someone that is moderate and that is capable of talking to everyone and finding solutions to the problems,” said Mr Gemayel, a strong critic of Hezbollah, the militant group and political party.
Since 2019, Lebanon has suffered a devastating economic collapse and the local currency has depreciated by more than 90 per cent. Much of the population has been plunged into poverty, and there are widespread shortages in medicine, electricity and other basic supplies.
Along with the huge reforms needed to tackle this crisis, the task of electing the next president falls to Lebanon’s new parliament after nationwide elections on May 15.
Iran-backed Hezbollah and its allies — including the Free Patriotic Movement party that Mr Aoun founded — lost their parliamentary majority, while opponents gained ground. It also ushered in 13 anti-establishment MPs, many linked to the October 2019 nationwide protests against the incumbent political parties.
If anything, those elections only hardened the divisions in the legislature which faces the more immediate tasks of electing its speaker and forming a government.
“This election result has produced the perfect scenario for a prolonged governance stalemate, shedding doubt as to whether the newly elected parliament can form a government or elect a president,” said Imad Salamey, a political analyst and professor at the Lebanese American University.
“It is deeply divided and fragmented, with a large number of anti-system parliamentarians who will have a difficult time reaching consensus with traditional parties. This will only deepen the crisis of the confessional regime and turn the prospect of electing a new president highly unlikely.”
From May 2014, when the term of president Michel Suleiman ended, numerous parliamentary sessions never went anywhere after the initial candidates failed to obtain the necessary majority.
Some parties, particularly Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement, boycotted the sessions as they sought to get their favoured candidates into the top job via the traditional back-room negotiations — as a result, the required parliamentary quorum was not met.
The stalemate began to ease when Mr Aoun unexpectedly received grudging support from some of his main foes. In January 2016, arch Hezbollah critic and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea backed his rival, Mr Aoun, for the presidency after the parties reconciled. That support was followed in October 2016 by that of Saad Hariri and his Sunni-led Future Movement, ending the impasse — with Mr Hariri becoming prime minister in return.
According to the Lebanese constitution, a two-thirds majority is required to win in the first round. If that does not happen, in the second round only an absolute majority is needed — or 65 votes in the 128-seat chamber.
Many have been talked about as potential presidents.
It has long been said that Mr Aoun is grooming Gebran Bassil, his son-in-law and successor as party leader of the Free Patriotic Movement, to succeed him. But Mr Bassil is a deeply divisive figure and his party lost seats in the election.
Marada Movement leader Suleiman Frangieh was another main contender in the previous elections, while there are suggestions that Mr Geagea, who now heads the largest Christian bloc in parliament, may also run.
Hilal Khashan, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut, predicted that a new president would not be in place this autumn.
He also suggested that army commander Joseph Aoun could be a dark horse, pointing to the historical precedent of military chiefs ascending to the Lebanese presidency.
Mr Gemayel is another name that has been talked of and he says the Kataeb party, which has five seats in the parliament, will not back “anyone who will not be able to tackle the issue of the weapons of Hezbollah. Because any president that comes [in] and is not willing to open up the subject of the weapons of Hezbollah and put it on the table and discuss it and try to find the solution for it — for us, he would be an ally of Hezbollah”.
But the reality is that the parliamentary election results may not have too much of an impact. Almost all of Lebanon’s previous presidents since independence from France in 1943 have been elected after agreements or interventions between regional or world powers, and Lebanon’s rival parties.
“I think both sides of the political chessboard in Lebanon might have overestimated the impact of the legislative elections on the race for the presidency," said Karim Bitar, professor at Saint Joseph University in Beirut.
Ultimately, Prof Bitar said, the parliamentary elections will not make or break a candidate.
“Whatever arithmetic majority controls the parliament, is never enough to make a president. Losing a parliamentary election is certainly symbolically significant. But ultimately, as has always been the case, the president will have to be elected after a compromise is reached and it will most probably be a candidate that does not face a veto from any of the major actors.
“What I would say is that the outcome of these legislative elections indicates that a likely scenario would be the election of a consensual president.
“It would no longer be the ‘strong president’ idea that has been peddled in the past few years by the Free Patriotic Movement. It will not necessarily be a Christian politician with significant popular backing. The preferable scenario given the current landscape in parliament would be the election of a consensual figure … a figure that would be able to talk to all sides, to help mitigate the crisis,” he said.
PROFILE OF SWVL
Started: April 2017
Founders: Mostafa Kandil, Ahmed Sabbah and Mahmoud Nouh
Based: Cairo, Egypt
Sector: transport
Size: 450 employees
Investment: approximately $80 million
Investors include: Dubai’s Beco Capital, US’s Endeavor Catalyst, China’s MSA, Egypt’s Sawari Ventures, Sweden’s Vostok New Ventures, Property Finder CEO Michael Lahyani
Name: Peter Dicce
Title: Assistant dean of students and director of athletics
Favourite sport: soccer
Favourite team: Bayern Munich
Favourite player: Franz Beckenbauer
Favourite activity in Abu Dhabi: scuba diving in the Northern Emirates
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026
1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years
If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.
2. E-invoicing in the UAE
Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption.
3. More tax audits
Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks.
4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime
Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.
5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit
There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.
6. Further transfer pricing enforcement
Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes.
7. Limited time periods for audits
Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion.
8. Pillar 2 implementation
Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.
9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services
Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations.
10. Substance and CbC reporting focus
Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity.
Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer
MATCH INFO
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
When: April 25, 10.45pm kick-off (UAE)
Where: Allianz Arena, Munich
Live: BeIN Sports HD
Second leg: May 1, Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
Expert input
If you had all the money in the world, what’s the one sneaker you would buy or create?
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Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Movie: Saheb, Biwi aur Gangster 3
Producer: JAR Films
Director: Tigmanshu Dhulia
Cast: Sanjay Dutt, Jimmy Sheirgill, Mahie Gill, Chitrangda Singh, Kabir Bedi
Rating: 3 star
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The Rub of Time: Bellow, Nabokov, Hitchens, Travolta, Trump and Other Pieces 1986-2016
Martin Amis,
Jonathan Cape
The Transfiguration
Director: Michael O’Shea
Starring: Eric Ruffin, Chloe Levine
Three stars
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
FOOTBALL TEST
Team X 1 Team Y 0
Scorers
Red card
Man of the Match
Challenge Cup result:
1. UAE 3 faults
2. Ireland 9 faults
3. Brazil 11 faults
4. Spain 15 faults
5. Great Britain 17 faults
6. New Zealand 20 faults
7. Italy 26 faults
1971: The Year The Music Changed Everything
Director: Asif Kapadia
4/5
Wicked: For Good
Director: Jon M Chu
Starring: Ariana Grande, Cynthia Erivo, Jonathan Bailey, Jeff Goldblum, Michelle Yeoh, Ethan Slater
Rating: 4/5