Will it rain in the UAE this December? Look to the stars for answers

Today a simple glance at a smartphone app can give you a detailed breakdown of the weather.

But hundreds of years ago there was a rather different way of forecasting the chance of a downpour.

The traditional Al Drour calendar of the Gulf was used by sailors, pearl divers, shepherds and farmers — who tracked the seasons by watching the stars.

The calendar divided the year into four seasons, with 100 days allocated to autumn, winter and summer, followed by 60 days of scorching heat. Five “stolen days” were added for inclement weather.

Each season is associated with particular weather and the seasons are identified by the appearance of certain stars. These four seasons are further measured by the calendar in 10-day cycles, known in Arabic as dir.

“The simplest way to tell a changing season was to look at the sky and see the stars,” said Hasan Al Hariri, chief executive of Dubai Astronomy Group.

“To see a star signified when a season would start and tell us about the changes in temperature, wind direction and when the rains will come.”

Many in the Gulf looked forward to the appearance of the Suhail star, which was associated with the end of the traditional pearl diving season and the gradual start of the cooler weather.

This year, Suhail was spotted on August 24 and it has got gradually cooler in the UAE since then.

Will we see major rains in the UAE this winter?

According to Al Drour, December is typically when downpours are expected in the Gulf and the month when temperatures tend to fall sharply.

“The real effect of winter begins in December,” said Mr Al Hariri. “That’s when it starts.”

Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have experienced severe downpours over the past week, with showers also forecast for Qatar over the next few days that could coincide with the World Cup quarter-finals.

According to the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology, parts of the UAE could also experience some rain by the middle of the week.

As for the Al Drour, some say climate change has dulled its reliability and Mr Al Hariri laments the system is now on the verge of extinction because it is not taught any more and younger generations prefer to use their phones.

“Those luxuries were not available in ancient times,” he said. “People had to make best of it.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”