Covid-19 effect on jobs: the occupations most at risk

New McKinsey report shows further job losses and workplace changes are on the horizon

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  TEACHER/LECTURER: The average salary in UAE is Dh9,000 with lows of Dh4,000 and highs of Dh21,000. Headteachers earn an average of Dh46,000 with highs of Dh75,000. University staff are typically well paid, with assistant professors and full lecturers earning between Dh20,000 and Dh40,000. AFP

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  FLIGHT CREW: Salaries for cabin crew and aircraft technicians range from Dh6,000 to Dh23,000. Pilots can usually secure between Dh20,000 to Dh60,000, depending on experience. EPA

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  FOOD AND DRINK: The average salary for a bartender, waiter or supervisor is Dh4,000 to Dh5,000, rising to Dh7,500 to Dh8,500 for managers. Chefs and head chefs can expect to take home between Dh6,000 to Dh38,000. Hotels often provide staff accommodation. Hollie Adams / Getty Images

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  ACCOUNTING AND AUDITING: A flooded market with basic accountants often earning Dh5,000 to Dh10,000. Senior auditors can earn Dh30,000 or more. Accountants who move into finance and management can expect significantly higher salaries. Getty Images

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  CONSTRUCTION: Engineering jobs have been hit hard by a downturn in the sector, but it remains a skilled and respected profession. Junior salaries for site inspectors and engineers begin at a few thousand dirhams, rising to Dh45,000 or more for construction managers. Gulf Talent says salaries in Saudi are higher than the UAE in some roles. Sammy Dallal / The National

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  NURSES: The true heroes of the pandemic, these professionals worked around the clock to treat patients and save lives. Salaries range between Dh4,000 to Dh14,500 and can be higher for senior nurses in higher-end private hospitals. AFP

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  HEALTH AND SAFETY: Health and safety has become a key priority. Junior roles in this sector can take home, on average, about Dh5,500 a month. That rises to Dh22,500 for managerial positions. Victor Besa / The National

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  HOSPITAL ADMINISTRATOR: Non-medical staff are currently in demand as the role of managing patients, their documents, payment and test results is increasingly crucial. Salaries vary but can be in the same region as nurses. Reem Mohammed / The National

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  CYBERSECURITY: The threat posed by cybercrime has never been more real, with the sale of financial assets, documents and medical records a lucrative business. Systems analysts and software engineers can earn Dh25,000 or more, rising significantly for those with high-end cybersecurity experience. Unsplash

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  HR, MARKETING AND FINANCE: Senior roles in these managerial classes vary significantly, but are generally well paid and often come with performance-related bonuses. Gulf Talent lists HR manager and HR business partner salaries at up to Dh42,500. An HR director of a major firm can earn twice that. Getty Images

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  SALES AND MERCHANDISING: As the economy slowly picks up, the retail sector will be looking to fill key roles again soon. Gulf Talent lists sales staff salaries from Dh1,500 to Dh3,500. A sales merchandiser can take home twice that each month. Paulo Vecina / The National

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  HOTELS: A duty manager at a hotel can earn anywhere from Dh6,000 to Dh26,000 per month. Front of house staff, including concierge, can take take home between Dh1,500 to Dh9,000. Staff accommodation is typically provided. Sarah Dea / The National

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  LEGAL: Lawyers and legal advisors can earn between Dh7,500 to Dh37,500. That rises to more than Dh53,000 for legal counsel positions, though the average sits at about Dh20,500. Jeff Topping / The National

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  OFFICE ADMINISTRATION: Jobseekers for secretarial and receptionist roles can expect salaries ranging from Dh2,500 to Dh8,000. Personal assistants and office managers fare better, from Dh4,500 up to Dh22,500 for higher-end firms. Getty Images

The world of work is undergoing great change because of  the coronavirus pandemic, leaving millions unemployed and others placed on furlough.

More people are working from home or waiting to restart their business when life returns to some form of normality.

But when people do get back to the workplace, what will it look like?

The McKinsey Global Institute, the research arm of management consultants McKinsey, released a report this week that tries to answer this question.

We expect the largest negative impact of the pandemic to fall on workers in food service and customer sales and service

Instead of considering types of jobs by sector, the company grouped 800 occupations according to how many interactions with other people they involved and assessed how they might be affected.

The report looked at eight countries accounting for half the world’s workforce – China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Spain, the UK and the US.

Here we look at the workplace changes that might be here to stay.

Which sector was hardest hit by coronavirus?

Up to 100 million workers – one in every 16 – in the eight countries featured are likely to have to look not just for new jobs, but new occupations.

In advanced economies, a quarter more people will have to change their field of work than predicted before the pandemic, with “a markedly different mix of occupations” emerging.

“We expect the largest negative impact of the pandemic to fall on workers in food service and customer sales and service roles, as well as less-skilled office support roles,” McKinsey said.

Meanwhile, there will be more warehousing and transport jobs, thanks in part to a growth in e-commerce. But this will not cancel out losses of other low-wage jobs.

McKinsey also forecasts a lasting increase in the number of independent workers – with the "gig economy" accounting for a greater share of the workforce.

Which jobs are most at risk during the pandemic?

1. On-site customer interaction
2. Leisure and travel
3. Computer-based office work
4. Indoor production and warehousing

McKinsey claims four types of close-proximity job – indoor production and warehousing, computerised office work, leisure and travel venues (which includes hotels and restaurants) and on-site customer interaction (including retail and hospitality) – are experiencing the most upheaval, in the short and long-term.

"Other work arenas, such as medical care and personal care with high levels of physical proximity, may also see less change because of the nature of the occupations," according to the report.

Tough times for sandwich shops 

With more employees working from home, city centres are likely to face permanent reductions in the amount of trade, affecting sandwich shops, coffee shops and other outlets. There will also be less demand for transport services aimed at commuters.

McKinsey forecasts that the work-from-home trend will also have knock-on consequences on where people live and companies base themselves as they “shift out of large cities into suburbs and small cities”.

With face-to-face meetings no longer as important, thanks to the rise of video-conferencing, business travel is forecast to be one fifth lower than before the pandemic, which will hit the aviation industry hard, especially as, McKinsey notes, business travel is particularly lucrative.

What jobs will be lost to automation and artificial intelligence?

McKinsey reports that many companies stepped up investments in automation in factories, warehouses and call centres during the pandemic.

This was driven by increased demand in certain sectors and the need to reduce employee density to prevent coronavirus transmission.

Two thirds of senior executives polled by McKinsey in mid-2020 reported that they were investing more in AI and automation – a trend forecast to continue.

“Companies have enlisted automation and AI to cope with Covid-19 disruptions and may accelerate adoption in the years ahead, putting more robots in manufacturing plants and warehouses and adding self-service customer kiosks and service robots in customer interaction arenas,” the report said.

How many people will continue to work from home?

While the numbers working remotely may tail off once the effects of the pandemic wane, they are expected to remain much higher than before the coronavirus emerged.

McKinsey estimates that one fifth to one quarter of the workforce in the most advanced economies could work from home between three and five days a week.

“This represents four to five times more remote work than before the pandemic,” the company said.

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Gallery: UAE salary guide 2021

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