ABU DHABI // The new pope will have a profound impact on the lives of the more than 800,000 Catholics at seven parishes in the UAE, priests said today.
Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, 76, of Argentina, now named Francis, is the first non-European pope elected in more than 1,000 years.
"Changes in the church do not come all of a sudden," said Father Wild Gandolf, 72, secretary to Bishop Paul Hinder, the vicar apostolic of Arabia at St Joseph's Cathedral in Abu Dhabi.
"The pope is like the father and we look up to him as an example of a holy and fraternal love. We will expect a different style.
"He will try to make his own diocese in Rome that will be a model of spirituality and fraternal love. He will do away with costly and ostentatious ceremonies."
The President, Sheikh Khalifa, today sent a congratulatory cable to Pope Francis, expressing his best wishes for success in boosting the values of peace, justice and tolerance in the world, reported the state news agency Wam.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, sent similar messages.
"I was surprised in a way [about the choice of pope] but very happy," said Fr Gandolf, who has been in Abu Dhabi since June 2008.
"Eight years ago many wanted him to be the pope but the votes did not seem sufficient at that time.
"Pope Francis is a very simple and humble man, and what was impressive about him was he asked the people to pray for him in his first words as pope last night.
"He's a Jesuit, one of the leading religious orders for their high intellectual capacity."
"We are very happy that we have a new pope, no matter where he's from," said Ruben Eduardo Caro, Argentina's ambassador.
"We're very happy and we will pray for him, for guidance from God so he can fulfil his huge responsibility."
There are about 1,200 Argentinians in the UAE. Among them is Claudia Mazur, 45, an Abu Dhabi resident for 18 months.
"It was a big surprise for me," Ms Mazur said. "I feel proud as an Argentinian that we have a new pope from Latin America."
She was expecting Cardinal Odilo Pedro Scherer, the much discussed Brazilian candidate, to be elected, and was unaware the Archbishop of Buenos Aires was among the contenders.
Ramuel Garcia, national director for Couples for Christ in the UAE, said the group was glad the process had not taken too long.
"The choice they made appeared to be close to unanimous and they were united," said Mr Garcia, 53, a Filipino business development manager. "Of course even at the last minute we were hoping that Cardinal Tagle would be our next pope."
Philippine Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle is Asia's most prominent Catholic leader.
"It's always a great joy to have someone lead the church again after the resignation of Pope Benedict XVI last month," said Fr Tomasito Veneracion, 52, the parish priest at St Mary's Church in Dubai.
"What is significant is the shift of leadership from Rome to South America. The papacy will make the church relevant again, especially in Europe and South America."
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
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