If the NFL play-offs began this week, the defending Super Bowl champions Denver Broncos would squeeze in as the American Conference's sixth and final seed.
Unfortunately for the champions, their chances of improving their position over the final three weeks may be worse than their chances of missing the post-season entirely.
They will finish the regular season against the three top teams in the AFC, beginning on Sunday against the current No 1 seed, the New England Patriots.
If it seems a daunting task, the leader of their still-stingy defence, linebacker Von Miller, suggests it may be a good thing playing such a loaded trio of teams to finish up.
“If we’re able to pass this test, we know exactly where we are going into the play-offs,” Miller said this week.
If not, fellas, see you at training camp next summer.
The NFL certainly prides itself on competitive balance. The Broncos’ predicament is one more example of the difficulty in repeating success.
Denver’s opponents in the Super Bowl, the Carolina Panthers, are 5-8 and a ridiculous mathematical dilemma away from making the post-season again.
Still, if both Super Bowl teams miss out, it would be the first time since 2003 when the Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers flopped in their follow-up attempts.
The Broncos (8-5) are far from cooked, of course. They do have an imposing road game on December 25 at the Kansas City Chiefs (10-3). But they will get the Patriots (11-2) and Oakland (9-4) at home where Denver have always used the chilly weather and high altitude like a trump card.
Even the Patriots have a surly Achilles heel when they take their Bill Belichick-Tom Brady dynasty to Denver. Brady is 2-7 in the Broncos’ home, including two critical encounters last season – an overtime loss in the regular season and a 20-18 defeat in the AFC title game.
The Denver defence that battered Brady last season is still intact, and close to the form that propelled them to their championship. The Broncos are third in the league in yards allowed per game, and sixth in points against.
Denver may have to be at their best again, since Brady continues to build on his legendary career, even after missing the first four games this season serving his Deflategate suspension. The 39-year-old quarterback’s 113.6 rating is the best in the NFL and the second-best of his 17-year career.
“He’s been on a mission since he’s come back,” Denver coach Gary Kubiak noted of Brady to ESPN.com. “You can see how driven he is.”
The Broncos do not need much offence, considering the strength of their defence, and did not get a lot last season from their two starting quarterbacks, retired hero Peyton Manning and the departed Brock Osweiler.
Considering he had never started an NFL game until September, the new guy, Trevor Siemian, has made a respectable contribution.
His 89.7 rating is in the middle of the quarterback rankings. He sits just behind noted veteran Philip Rivers of the San Diego Chargers and in front of 2015 No 1 draft pick Jameis Winston of Tampa Bay.
As a whole, however, Denver’s offence ranks 25th in yards per game. Last year, they were 16th.
In a sense, the play-offs have already arrived for Denver. Their remaining opponents are post-season worthy, and the Broncos will likely need to win two of three to stay ahead of the pack of wild-card contenders.
On the bright side, epic teams need epic challenges to make their case. The door remains slightly ajar for the champions.
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