Quick, take a guess as to who had more grasscourt singles victories in the Wimbledon warm-up tournaments the past couple weeks: Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic and Grigor Dimitrov – or Borna Coric, Thanasi Kokkinakis and Alexander Zverev?
Three of the ATP’s bright 25-and-under stars, all ranked in the top 11 in the world and each of whom has been to a grand slam semi-final. Or the three highest-ranking teenagers on the tour, ranging from 39 (Coric) to 76 (Zverev)?
It’s actually kind of a trick question. The answer is the trios are even – six grasscourt wins in 2015 apiece.
The framing there isn’t to suggest the teenagers are on the cusp of grand slam glory and global stardom. They may very well be destined for the peak of their profession, but right now there’s no real reason to think they have a run at the All England Club beyond the second or third round in store.
The problem, for the older, more accomplished trio, is there really isn’t much reason right now to expect great things for them at Wimbledon either.
If 2014 was a breakout introduction of sorts for Nishikori, Raonic and Dimitrov, 2015 can be considered something like a sophomore slump.
Only the Japanese 25-year-old has been able to even so much as win a title this season, triumphing at Barcelona and Memphis. Often times again, frailty has held him back, with various strains here and there – like a calf injury that forced him to retire during the Halle semi-final against Andreas Seppi last week.
If one makes allowance for the uncontrollable nature of injury, Nishikori could perhaps count as a qualified success this year. He at least reached the quarter-finals at the Australian and French Opens, largely solidifying his reputation for being as much a threat as anyone outside the Big 4.
At the opposite end, Dimitrov has seemingly regressed. The Bulgarian, a 2014 Wimbledon semi-finalist, was a first round casualty at Roland Garros and made a fourth round exit at Melbourne Park. He has yet to win a title this year – in fact he has yet to even threaten to win one, reaching only two semi-finals at 250 Series events in Istanbul and Brisbane.
His ineffectual turn could possibly be chalked up to a lack of focus – at his best Dimitrov is an artist on the court, playing shots behind the back, through his legs and however else he pleases. But he can fall too much in love with his own skill, and at times his play will turn sloppy, attention lapsed as he looks bored with the routine process of winning points in tour matches.
Which leaves the Canadian Raonic. Not especially encouraging, not especially disappointing – just ... kind of there.
His talent might be the most tantalising of tennis’s young headliners. His serve is electric, with the kind of velocity and movement to, on its own, place him rightfully among the world’s top ten players.
His forehand can produce credibly audacious shots, the kind worthy of a grand slam champion. He’s quick enough at 24 to play defensively if he has to. He has finesse to his game, but only in spurts and a backhand that could stand to improve, but the makings of an elite player are there.
So why, a year after his own trip to the Wimbledon semis, is Raonic seemingly so much, well, the same? He’s had a consistent enough year that, on its surface, would appear reasonable enough: 23-10 record, quarter-final march at the Australian Open, last eight appearances at seven of the nine tournaments he’s entered.
But nothing stands out in his 2015 record that would be fitting of his talent blossoming into something bigger than just talent. Not even a lone singles title.
He’s just 3-8 against top 15 opponents. He’s won only three of 13 sets in his matches against Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. His lone final appearance, a loss to Federer, was back in January.
In the sudden age of Stan Wawrinka, late-blooming two-time grand slam champion, there’s no reason to really panic that Raonic or either of his young, highly-ranked comrades isn’t yet taking the next step, but it’s still curious.
Absent Nishikori’s failing body or Dimitrov’s failing concentration, Raonic more than the other two gives the appearance of a player plateauing. Maybe there is no extra level in him to reach, maybe he is in fact maxing out his talent as is.
Plenty of other laudable players – Tomas Berdych, David Ferrer – have had excellent careers without a grand slam trophy to their name.
But for Raonic – or Nishikori or Dimitrov, for that matter – it feels like more is still there for the taking. Hopefully, for tennis fans eager to see a “next generation” assert some authority, the All England Club, site of such success just a year ago, will give us a glimpse of that something more.
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