South Africa proved in their semi-final loss to New Zealand last week that the champions are fallible, and Australia are confident that they can upset the world’s No 1 team in Saturday’s Rugby World Cup final.
New Zealand coach Steve Hansen has named seven players in his starting line-up that featured in the win over France in the final four years ago.
Experience is nothing unless you learn the right lessons, but New Zealand have lost just three matches since they hosted the last tournament. They look on course to become the first team to defend their crown.
With a limited strategy, South Africa pushed New Zealand to within two points. The Wallabies have had one less day to recover after beating Argentina in their semi-final, but they do not feel in awe of their trans-Tasman rivals.
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Australia have the players and gameplan to beat New Zealand – they downed them in Sydney during the Rugby Championship in the summer after all.
It remains to be seen whether they have the execution in the biggest pressure game their players have ever featured in to implement it.
Only Argentina have made more clean breaks than New Zealand’s 61 this tournament, but Australia’s defence has been superb in five of their six matches.
Scotland combined luck and opportunism to pressurise the Australians at the quarter-final stage.
There are two ways of looking at Australia’s defeat of the Argentines last week.
Argentina broke Australia’s line in the second half on numerous occasions, but they failed to cross the whitewash and relied on the boot of Nicolas Sanchez.
New Zealand are far more precise having broken the line, however, and with their array of talent when one door shuts they effortlessly change the point of attack.
Australia have made more tackles than any other team in the tournament.
The back-row trio of Michael Hooper, Scott Fardy and David Pocock have been at the forefront of the defensive effort, but lock Kane Douglas also has been a crucial presence.
If Douglas’s work-rate extends enough to help Hooper and Pocock to maraud freely, their side have the distributors in Matt Giteau and Bernard Foley, and the strike runners in Adam Ashley-Cooper and a resurgent Drew Mitchell, to make use of their turnover possession.
The battle of the breakdown against Richie McCaw will be hugely significant.
Ultimately it is New Zealand’s probable dominance at the line-out that could prove the deciding factor as the scrum could go either way.
South Africa were too wet behind the ears to kick for territory in defeat because they feared handing the ball to New Zealand’s back three of Ben Smith, Nehe Milner-Skudder and tournament top tryscorer Julian Savea.
As lungs begin to empty today in the second half, coach Steve Hansen will replace Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu with Sonny Bill Williams, whose continuous offloading has been almost impossible to stop.
Australia have the kickers in Foley and Giteau, but they boot the ball upfield at their peril.
Dan Carter is a master tactician and should he elect to play the match in Australia’s half, it will be very hard for the Wallabies to bound back out again.
Through Brodie Retallick and Kieran Read, New Zealand have stolen more ball from opposition throw-ins than any other team.
Australia can certainly win, but they will have to play the game of their lives.
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