NBA: There is Durant and then the rest in Western Confernece

After the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, anything can happen in play-off race, writes Jonathan Raymond.

Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant, right, has his team on top of the Western Conference. Frederic J Brown / AFP

In the NBA, it is no secret that the real action is confined to the Western Conference.

In the East, Miami and Indiana constitute a two-horse race.

In the West, five teams are within six games of the top-of-the-heap Oklahoma City Thunder, and four more solid teams are in the thick of the race for the eight play-off berths.

To get a feel for the West as the NBA emerges from its All-Star break, it is easiest to break the field into three tiers.

The top is clear: the Thunder have Kevin Durant, the best player in the league, and a four-game lead over San Antonio. The Thunder are on a tier alone and will gain more distance on the rest if Russell Westbrook can stay healthy, upon his return.

The middle tier is made up of the four teams best positioned to gain home-court advantage in the first round of the play-offs.

The Spurs top that group, and while it is tempting to think this is the year they finally succumb to age, nothing statistically suggests it. They have racked up the third-best point differential in the conference (plus-6.3 points per game) while playing a more difficult schedule than all but one of the West’s top-five teams. Last year’s finalists are probably secure in second.

The one team that has played more difficult opposition? Portland. The good news is they have only 10 more games against the top-nine Western teams or Miami, and 18 games against everyone else.

The bad news is Houston have been the hottest team in the league lately and the Clippers are simply better. The Blazers, though, can probably feel safe with fifth.

After that, it is almost impossible to predict how Dallas, Memphis, Golden State and Phoenix will be sorted. One will miss the play-offs.

The Mavericks have played the easiest schedule so far, but Memphis have by far the worst point differential at a mere plus-0.2.

The Warriors have a plus-4.6 points difference against the league’s fourth-toughest schedule, but they have also been maddeningly inconsistent. The Suns are the surprise of the league and have played well, but find themselves in a precarious position, along with Golden State, at the back of the play-offs race.

If we are making predictions? Oklahoma City, San Antonio, LA Clippers, Houston, Portland, Golden State, Memphis and Phoenix, in that order, with Dallas missing the post-season.

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