It is one of the oldest truisms in sport. Pre-eminence, say managers, “goes in cycles”.
No champion endures forever. If they did the spirit of competition that raises standards and stimulates interest would perish.
The trick that the wealthiest, most glamorous five leagues in Europe have this season pulled off as they complete the first third of the season could seem so expertly designed to stimulate interest, create a sense of refreshing novelty, it might almost seem contrived.
Look across the tops of the Premier League, the Bundesliga, Serie A, Spain’s Primer Liga and Ligue 1 of France and none of them have the same club in first place as the one that held that spot a year ago, at the equivalent stage of the season.
In another era, that might not be so remarkable. But in a period where champions of most of those leagues have enjoyed sustained, sometimes almost tedious monopolies, it is striking.
In Germany, the title has been in the same hands for the past four years, Bayern Munich’s. In France, Paris Saint-Germain are chasing a fifth consecutive crown, Juventus – who buck a trend in that they are, slightly nervously, hanging on to top place right now, are after a sixth title on the trot, while Barcelona have won all but one of the past four Spanish titles.
Back in August, each of those four began their defences of their respective titles as favourites to maintain the status quo. Only Juve are right now justifying that.
In France and Germany, where Nice and RB Leipzig have set the pace, the talk is of Leicester City-style coups. Leicester’s annexing of the English Premier League last May was an inspiration for also-rans abroad, and is regularly cited.
Listen to Thomas Tuchel, the manager of a Borussia Dortmund who had been expected to mount the sole significant challenge to Bayern’s German hegemony this season.
Dortmund have inflicted a wound on Bayern, one of two defeats the Bundesliga champions suffered in the space of four days last week, but Tuchel acknowledges the real gains are those of Leipzig, three points clear at the top in their first season in the top flight.
“Leipzig,” Tuchel said, “are not a one-day wonder. You can compare them closely with Leicester. They are on the same track.”
Leaving aside some of the characteristics of Leipzig that incite resentment – big corporate backing, from the Red Bull company – the power of Leipzig’s propulsion is indeed similar.
Leicester sat at the bottom of the Premier League in mid-April 2015 and were its champions, for the first time in their history, 13 months later. Leipzig were in the second tier of German football six months ago.
Like Chelsea, leaders of the Premier League, Leipzig have a scheduling advantage: No midweek commitments in continental club competitions.
Other clubs dividing their days between Uefa Champions League and domestic endeavours in the autumn typically target as early a qualification as possible from the group phase and the risk there is that in concentrating their physical efforts on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, they ease up at weekends. The current Leicester, unused to such a calendar, are a classic case.
Immediately ahead of their four impressive victories – out of five so far – in the Champions League group stage, they have lost each of their league games.
Nice, who had a narrow lead over second-placed Monaco going into this midweek round of Ligue 1 matches, have by contrast prioritised domestic title-chasing over the Europa League, although their exhilarating form in France has shown signs of wobbling, with just one win in three games going into tonight’s match with Guingamp.
In Spain, the staying power of Real Madrid, who could stretch their lead over Barcelona to nine points in Saturday’s clasico, inspires more faith, while Juventus may have lost three Serie A games already but know their start to last season was much worse than that. And they still recovered.
As for Leicester, they have already suffered twice as many Premier League losses as they did throughout their amazing campaign. They are now more like a historic symbol, Legacy City FC, for the unsung and unheralded.
Significantly, it was at just this stage of last season that Leicester first moved to top spot in the Premier League. Leipzig and Nice, take note. From here on, momentum can become irresistible.
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