The IPL’s American-style play-off system can surprise, and it is only the third time in 10 years that the top two teams are in the final, writes Dileep Premachandran
In certain ways, the Indian Premier League is a misnomer.
Since its inception in 2008, the tournament has followed the play-off system beloved of American sport. While that can make for a gripping final week, it can also reward mediocrity.
When the now-defunct Deccan Chargers were top dogs in South Africa in 2009, they did so having won only seven of their 14 league games. In fact, 2017 marks only the third occasion, after 2011 and 2013, that the two top sides in the league phase have made the final.
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If you are one for omens, you would be worried as a Mumbai Indians fan. Not since Rajasthan Royals in 2008, have the table-toppers been crowned champions.
Mumbai were clinical in putting away a feeble Kolkata challenge in Bangalore on Friday night. Now they face Rising Pune Supergiant, who have beaten them three times this season, including in the first game of the play-offs.
Pune, who made a terrible 1-3 start before finishing the strongest of the eight teams, won that match without two of their key players — Ben Stokes and Imran Tahir — who had left to prepare for the England-South Africa one-day international series.
Mumbai have a few selection conundrums despite the ease with which they made the final. They have been unsentimental and ruthless in keeping Harbhajan Singh out of the XI. He played 11 straight games after being benched for the opener, and had an excellent economy rate of 6.48.
But an inability to take wickets — just eight for the season — and a Glenn Maxwell onslaught at the Wankhede Stadium saw him lose his place for the play-offs.
Krunal Pandya has been nearly as economical with the ball, and has made explosive contributions with the bat, none more vital than his 45 against Kolkata.
Karn Sharma, who befuddled Kolkata, should also get the nod, having taken wickets in the last two matches against Pune. It is a distinct possibility that Harbhajan, after 127 wickets in 136 matches, may have played his last game for the franchise he stayed loyal to for 10 seasons.
For Pune, Steve Smith could finish second only to his Australia vice-captain, David Warner, if he has a big innings in the final. Smith’s leadership, MS Dhoni’s big-game nous — and lack of ego after he was removed from the captaincy — and Stephen Fleming’s coaching have all played a big part in Pune’s excellent season.
But the real star has been a kid who looked so out of depth on his Test debut in South Africa more than six years ago.
Jaidev Unadkat, bowling at gentle medium pace, had an outing to forget at Centurion in December 2010.
Now 25, he has done the hard yards in domestic cricket to haul himself back into the spotlight. He has been outstanding for Pune with 22 wickets and at an economy rate of 7.24.
The final could well come down to who bowls better, Unadkat or Jasprit Bumrah, whose 3-7 helped rout Kolkata.
Bumrah learnt to bowl his yorkers by aiming at the skirting of the floor at home, but he has now developed more variations including a useful bouncer.
It will be fascinating to see which of the Mitchells gets the nod to take the new ball. McClenaghan started 14 games and took 19 wickets, but was also very expensive. Johnson’s four wickets from four games have come at an economy rate that is two runs better.
Johnson is nowhere near as quick as his Ashes 2013/14 wrecking-ball prime, but he remains the more intimidating option in a big final.
On paper, Pune’s bowling attack looks less than fearsome, but with Rohit Sharma and Lendl Simmons struggling for form, Pune’s greater experience could give them the edge.
When it comes to matches that matter, it is hard to look beyond Dhoni’s composure and Smith’s appetite for runs.
Mumbai have the chance to become the first team to win the IPL three times. But this correspondent is going with the side that finished second in the league.
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