Just 1,613 ranking points separate Rory McIlroy and Danny Willett at the top of the Race to Dubai ahead of this weekend’s finale. Which is basically nothing, in the grand scheme of things. Five others can, technically, finish top of the season’s Order of Merit on Sunday.
Tenuous
An Byeong-hun win
An wins the tournament, McIlroy worse than 28th, Willett worse than 27th, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry or Louis Oozthuizen not second alone.
Unlikely
Branden Grace win
Grace wins, McIlroy worse than third, Willett worse than third.
Grace finishes second, McIlroy worse than 42nd, Willett worse than 41st, An, Oosthuizen, Lowry or Rose do not win.
Louis Oosthuizen win
Oosthuizen wins, McIlroy worse than a three-way tie for second, Willett worse that two-way tie for second.
Oosthuizen second, McIlroy worse than 11th, Willett worse than 11th, Grace, Lowry or Rose do not win.
Shane Lowry win
Lowry wins, McIlroy worse than a two-way tie for second, Willett worse than a two-way tie for second.
Lowry finishes second, McIlroy worse than eighth, Willett worse than eighth, Grace, Oosthuizen and Rose do not win.
Possible
Justin Rose win
Rose wins, McIlroy worse than a two-way tie for second, Willett worse than a two-way tie for second.
Rose second, McIlroy worse than seventh, Willett worse than seventh, Grace, Oosthuizen and Lowry do not win.
Rose two-way tie for second, McIlroy worse than 46th, Willett worse than 45th, An, Grace, Oosthuizen or Lowry do not win.
Likely
If none of those scenarios come to pass, it is a shoot-out between the top two.
Rory McIlroy win
McIlroy ties with Willett or beats him.
Danny Willett win
He finishes 56th alone or better and beats McIlroy.
