It was always going to be a significant week in Uefa’s calendar. Manchester City against Real Madrid, Bayern Munich versus Chelsea, Juventus and Barcelona home games, a host of Europa League ties. All, as virtually everyone must be aware, are postponed.
Instead the hastily arranged encounter is altogether more important: representatives of all 55 Uefa members will convene on Tuesday by video conference. On the table are the futures of the Champions League, the Europa League and Euro 2020. Major decisions beckon.
Euro 2020
The Italian Football Federation president Gabriele Gravina said at the weekend: “We will propose that Uefa postpone the European Championship.”
Postponement has gone from a possibility to an inevitability and not merely because Rome was one of the host cities. The question is: to when?
The logical date would be next summer, in effect applying the same schedule but 12 months later. That would come at the expense of the Nations League and the expanded Club World Cup, both of which would have to be called off.
While the inaugural Nations League was a pleasant surprise to many, it is scarcely established in the calendar. A 2021 Euros makes most sense.
But another mooted idea would be to play Euro 2020 in December, at least meaning it actually is in 2020 and allowing clubs to complete their domestic season in June (and maybe even July).
While European football will be disrupted for a winter tournament when the 2022 World Cup takes place in Qatar, there seems an obvious flaw in that strategy: the 2020-21 calendar could already be more packed than usual if the start to next season is delayed to allow this season to conclude or if divisions have to be expanded.
Another issue, and a more pressing one if December is chosen, is when the eight play-offs originally scheduled for the next week are rescheduled for.
Champions League and Europa League
The Champions League has four quarter-finalists, but the second leg has not been played in the other four ties.
The Europa League is still more of a mess, with the first leg played of only six of the eight last-16 ties. In theory, they have 17 and 23 games remaining respectively, culminating in finals on May 30 and 27.
In reality, that will not all happen. Surely, the finals will have to be rescheduled for June, at the earliest, and not least out of fairness to the Italian and Spanish clubs, whose countries have been most affected by coronavirus and who will not be playing again soon.
One possible scenario is for one-legged ties in the quarter- and semi-finals. Another mooted plan is for the Champions League semi-finals and final to all take place in Istanbul – the host city, which has so far escaped the worst of the Covid-19 crisis – and its Europa League equivalents in Gdansk.
Certainly it seems some games may have to be played at neutral venues and perhaps all will have to be staged behind closed doors.
Meanwhile, a further issue is that the qualifying rounds for next season’s Europa and Champions League normally start in the summer – before the 2019-20 season could be concluded. Some will have to be put back.
Domestic leagues
Uefa and Fifa have a duty to relax and expand the normal calendar so that the domestic leagues can eventually finish. Both Serie A and La Liga representatives have said that is their intention. The governing bodies ought to help accommodate them.
It entails changes other regulations, which could affect players whose contracts expire on 30 June. In turn, that could have a knock-on effect for the transfer window and its dates.
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Education: Master’s degree in special education, preparing for a PhD in philosophy.
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Favourite quote: “My people and I will not settle for anything less than first place” – Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid.
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
'The Sky is Everywhere'
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The specs
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SPECS
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