It was a realistic assessment, not a rallying cry. “Tottenham at Wembley should beat us comfortably,” Keith Hill said.
His Rochdale team are 11 points from safety in League One. There are 64 places between them and Spurs. But the gap stood at 63 last week when Rochdale drew 2-2. The FA Cup's propensity to get players performing far above their natural level was summed up in 90, remarkable minutes at Spotland.
A rematch and a replay, as manager Hill conceded, makes Spurs even stronger contenders. Mauricio Pochettino made 11 changes for that draw and some of his squad players looked rusty.
Yet that was still a starting 11 that cost in excess of £120 million (Dh615m). By way of comparison, Dale’s record signing remains Paul Connor, a striker who cost £150,000 in 2001.
Mentions of money are inescapable. If cup runs represent an unwanted burden to relegation-threatened Premier League clubs, they are a lifeline to their League One counterparts. Tickets are discounted at Wembley, but Dale will get a 45 per cent share of the profits.
Factor in the television rights from a second broadcast tie and the FA Cup financially secures Rochdale’s immediate future.
“Basically, yeah,” Hill confirmed, though a windfall will not be wasted. “The plan doesn’t change. It’s a sustainable plan we’ll continue to use. There’ll be players leaving in the summer and we’ll bring a young group through, players who probably have not had the best season elsewhere and we’ll regenerate them.”
Hill’s was an explanation of how the other half live. He ranks as the most successful manager in Rochdale’s history and, in 2014/15, took them to their highest ever finish: eighth in the third tier, or 52nd in the league ladder.
There is a theory that success breeds support. Hill refutes it. Rochdale is not a wealthy place. “Spare cash in pocket, that’s a big issue,” their manager said.
The Manchester giants can tap into their catchment area in a region overflowing with rivals. “We have Oldham, Bury, Burnley just around the corner,” Hill added.
“The successes we have had – getting promoted twice – it hasn’t generated extra fans. The only point of view where it is frustrating is that your budget is based on your fanbase. My budget is the same, year in year out, other than selling players or FA Cup runs.”
Hill, 48, signed a new five-year contract last year fully aware that Rochdale could drop into League Two during that time. He highlighted the cautionary tales of clubs who have ended up in non-league after not displaying his frugality while noting the increased expenditure of League One rivals.
“We are finding it difficult to stay on their coattails because of how the spend has gone up,” he said. “We won’t chase them financially by spending money we haven’t got and end up where Stockport, Darlington, Wrexham, Tranmere are.
"We have to live to fight another day and save our money.”
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That long-term view means Rochdale, who have never reached the last eight of the FA Cup, have earned the right to savour this occasion. His players will be allowed to take selfies but, 75 minutes before kick-off, they will have to focus on the game. They spent Tuesday training training at St George’s Park, the facility used by the England national team.
“All the pitches are on the same dimensions as Wembley,” Hill added. “They are all immaculate.”
A man with a winning informality ventures south determined to be true to himself. He will not dress up for Wembley.
“Suits are for funerals and weddings, it’s as simple as that,” he said. “I’m not embarrassed about being Keith Hill. I am pretty comfortable in my own type of suit.”
His son Sidney will be a mascot, just as he was last week. “My lad won’t be on the bench,” the Rochdale manager added. “He messes about too much. He’s six.”
His thoughts will turn, too, to the previous generation and his late father, Keith senior. “My dad died 12 months ago but he has been a constant inspiration and motivation for me,” Hill said. “He’s been my hero as far back as I can remember.
"Even from three years of age I wanted to spend all my time with him.”
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
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