It is the costliest drop in football. Even in an era when parachute payments for demoted sides can amount to £87 million (Dh396m), a loss of Premier League status is still hugely expensive. Relegated clubs can lose players, income and face.
The fact that neither Aston Villa nor Norwich City look like coming straight back up underlines their problems. The best way to avoid them is to stay up. For at least seven clubs, there are two months to save their skin and their revenue streams alike in an increasingly unpredictable scrap.
Certainly recent games have brought a dramatic difference. Leicester City seemed on course to become the first defending champions since Manchester City in the 1930s to go down.
Sam Allardyce looked likely to lose his proud record of never being relegated from the top flight as a manager. Now Leicester and Crystal Palace are two of the form teams in the division. Each have won their last three games. They are proof of the impact a new manager can make. So are Hull City and Swansea City, who looked doomed before new appointments.
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Leicester’s success under Craig Shakespeare has shown the merits of promoting from within, so Middlesbrough have followed suit by elevating assistant Steve Agnew after Aitor Karanka’s departure in the hope history repeats itself. Only Sunderland of the bottom six have stuck with the same man, David Moyes.
It is a greater anomaly because their path to salvation always used to come via a managerial dismissal. Now continuity could be damaging. Moyes thought Sunderland needed five wins from their last 12 games.
They have only taken one point since, leaving them needing five wins from 10. Their plight is the most desperate. Even with the prolific Jermain Defoe, they have not scored in the last four. Middlesbrough have scored 20 league goals, one fewer than Everton’s Romelu Lukaku has mustered on his own.
At the other end of the spectrum, Swansea have outscored two of the top 10 and have, in Gylfi Sigurdsson, the man with the most Premier League assists. Their problem is they have the division’s worst defensive record.
If clean sheets keep a club up Palace, who have not conceded in the last three, ought to survive. But they, with five of the top six to face, may have the hardest finish of all.
Some need points on the board sooner rather than later: Middlesbrough’s last four opponents include Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool. Their destiny could be decided in the next week, when they meet Swansea and Hull.
Watford face a similarly tough run-in. With others gaining ground, they have slipped by stealth into danger. Their best chance of escaping it may come in the next two games.
Meanwhile, Hull’s wretched away record endangers them, but they have winnable home matches. The visits of Middlesbrough and Sunderland are six-pointers that perhaps could be packaged as £200m matches.
And April and May are littered with similarly tense fixtures, tests of nerves where the stakes will get higher as the clock ticks down.
It is often best to play teams in mid-table obscurity in the final weeks, but it is notable the relegation candidates barely have such games against demotivated opponents. They face a fight to safety.
If it looked as though a particularly low points tally should ensure survival, that does not appear the case any more. The usual marker of 38 should apply. And, while there will be shock results, this prediction is that the current bottom three will go down, two of them with at least a week to spare, but with a caveat. Swansea could begin the final day in the bottom three and produce the last drama of the battle at the bottom.
WHO BEATS THE DROP?
As the Premier League begins its run in to the end of the season, Richard Jolly forecasts how the bottom seven sides in the table will fare and who the relegated sides will be on the final day of the campaign.
Some fixture dates on rearranged games are yet to be scheduled, and dates for games on May 6 and 13 weekends are subject to change once English TV stations have selected games they want to show live.
Sunderland
Sunderland manager David Moyes. Lee Smith / Reuters
Current points total: 20
April 1 Watford (a) Draw
April 4 Leicester City (a) Loss
April 9 Manchester United (h) Draw
April 15 West Ham United (h) Win
Date TBA Arsenal (a) Loss
April 26 Middlesbrough (a) Draw
April 29 Bournemouth (h) Win
May 6 Hull City (a) Loss
May 13 Swansea City (h) Draw
May 21 Chelsea (a) Loss
Final total: 30 — relegated
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough defender Ben Gibson. Simon Bellis / Sportimage
Current points total: 22
April 2 Swansea City (a) Loss
April 5 Hull (a) Loss
April 8 Burnley (h) Win
April 17 Arsenal (h) Loss
April 22 Bournemouth (a) Win
April 26 Sunderland (h) Draw
April 30 Manchester City (h) Loss
May 6 Chelsea (a) Loss
May 13 Southampton (h) Win
May 21 Liverpool (a) Loss
Final total: 32 — relegated
Hull City
Hull City striker Abel Hernandez. Craig Brough / Reuters
Current points total: 24
April 1 West Ham United (h) Win
April 5 Middlesbrough (h) Win
April 8 Man City (a) Loss
April 15 Stoke (a) Loss
April 22 Watford (h) Win
April 29 Southampton (a) Loss
May 6 Sunderland (h) Win
May 13 Crystal Palace (a) Loss
May 21 Tottenham Hotspur (h) Loss
Final total: 36 — relegated
Swansea City
Swansea City manager Paul Clement. Oli Scarff / AFP
Current points total: 27
April 2 Middlesbrough (h) Win
April 5 Tottenham (h) Loss
April 8 West Ham (a) Win
April 15 Watford (a) Loss
April 22 Stoke (h) Win
April 30 Manchester United (a) Loss
May 6 Everton (h) Draw
May 13 Sunderland (a) Draw
May 21 West Bromwich Albion (h) Win
Final total: 38 — safe
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace manager Sam Allardyce. Michael Steele / Getty Images
Current points total: 28
April 1 Chelsea (a) Loss
April 5 Southampton (a) Win
April 10 Arsenal (h) Draw
April 15 Leicester City (h) Win
April 23 Liverpool (a) Loss
April 26 Tottenham (h) Loss
April 29 Burnley (h) Win
May 6 Manchester City (a) Loss
May 13 Hull City (h) Win
May 21 Manchester United (a) Loss
Final total: 38 — safe
Leicester City
Leicester City striker Jamie Vardy. Carl Recine / Reuters
Current points total: 30
April 1 Stoke (h) Win
April 4 Sunderland (h) Win
April 9 Everton (a) Loss
April 15 Crystal Palace (a) Loss
Date TBA Tottenham Hotspur (h) Draw
April 26 Arsenal (a) Loss
April 29 West Bromwich Albion (a) Win
May 6 Watford (h) Win
May 13 Manchester City (a) Loss
May 21 Bournemouth (h) Win
Final total: 46 — safe
Watford
Watford captain Troy Deeney. Tony Marshall / Getty Images
Current points total: 31
April 1 Sunderland (h) Draw
April 4 West Bromwich Albion (h) Win
April 8 Tottenham (a) Loss
April 15 Swansea (h) Win
April 22 Hull City (a) Loss
Date TBA Chelsea (a) Loss
April 29 Liverpool (h) Loss
May 6 Leicester (a) Loss
May 13 Everton (a) Loss
May 21 Manchester City (h) Loss
Final total: 38 — safe
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