Title-winning seasons are built on many factors. Luck and timing are two of them and leaders Chelsea are getting along nicely with both at the moment.
Consider this: Had Kevin de Bruyne not produced the miss of the season from six yards when Manchester City were 1-0 ahead at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday, then Pep Guardiola’s side probably would have won. Instead, it stayed 1-0 and Chelsea produced a remarkable comeback to win 3-1 and go top of the Premier League.
A touch of luck there. In another scenario, Chelsea would be third on goal difference behind Arsenal instead of three points clear at the top.
Chelsea beating City is seen s a signature win for Antonio Conte in the title race, but it is hard to think the Italian’s plan was to let the opposition control the game for an hour. What Chelsea did show in that period though was character and spirt. They outplayed City for the final third of the game and that is what mattered.
See also:
• Premier League team of the week: Duos from Chelsea, Arsenal and surprising Bournemouth
• Richard Jolly: Conte bests Guardiola, and Chelsea keep their heads as Manchester City lose theirs
Now they have good timing, too. On Saturday, Chelsea host seventh-placed West Bromwich Albion and then do not play another team in the top eight until January 4 when they travel to Tottenham Hotspur. Chelsea have a chance to put some daylight between themselves and their rivals; in that same period, City and Arsenal face each other.
Conte can rotate his squad over the busy Christmas period with minimal risk. There is no European campaign to worry about, no League Cup fixtures in the way and no major injuries to contend with – unless you still count John Terry as a first-choice defender.
The cards are all falling just right for Chelsea at the moment. They look like title favourites, but then so did City after the first seven games of the season.
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Leicester’s luck has dried up
Speaking of champions, the difference between 2015/16 Leicester City and the 16/17 version is stark, but is it predictable?
The defence is built round two journeymen centre-backs – Robert Huth and Wes Morgan – who had career seasons in Leicester’s title-winning campaign. But both have regressed this term and are making mistakes.
The midfield was over reliant on the indefatigable N’Golo Kante which allowed them to play two centre-forwards as the Frenchman did the work of two players in midfield. Kante is gone and Leicester are being consistently exposed as manager Claudio Ranieri has not changed his tactics.
The attack is based around Jamie Vardy who also had a season he is unlikely to repeat. The scorer of goals in a record 11 straight games last season has not found the net in 15 this term, suggesting he is not quite as good as people thought he was. When your game is based on pace, there is always likely to be some regression when your are not getting as much service.
You add to that a failure to properly replace Kante or add the competition for places that a top squad needs and it is hardly surprising that things are going wrong. In fact you would find fewer people who expected Leicester to finish in the top four this season than expected them to finish in the bottom half.
Maybe Leicester were lucky to win the title last season. Lucky that so many elements fell into place at the right time while their rivals dithered. But nothing is going right for them this time around and they now need to keep an eye on the bottom three.
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