Tottenham Hotspur must feel as though they missed a major chance by letting victory slip through their fingers against Arsenal and, delving into the numbers, it looks like they have.
Leicester City now have a five-point lead over Spurs and eight points over third-placed Arsenal. They are the only side this season who are averaging more than two points per game.
To put that into context, in 2013/14 the top four all averaged more than two points per game. It has been a baffling season, full of upsets and strange results, which suggest there are a few more twists to come in this title race.
Read more: Leicester City rise to the top of the table will be tough to replicate, writes Richard Jolly
However, Leicester have their destiny in their own hands. If they were to carry on averaging two points per game, with nine matches left, they would finish on 78 points. To reach that tally, Tottenham could afford to lose once or draw twice and Arsenal would need to win all their games.
But Leicester have definitely found the going a bit tougher in recent games, even if their results don’t show it.
Outplayed in defeat to Arsenal, a last-minute winner against Norwich City, held at home by West Bromwich Albion and then a tight win at Watford. So perhaps they will drop points in these last nine games, especially given that they have trips to Manchester United and Chelsea and tough home games with Southampton and West Ham United.
If they average, say, 1.5 points a game until May, a 25 per cent drop in form, they would finish with 73 points. That means Tottenham would need 18 points from a maximum of 27, or six wins from nine; Arsenal would need seven wins from nine.
Looking at the fixture list, Arsenal are the most likely to reach that target. Spurs have four tough matches in the space of five games – Liverpool, Stoke City and Chelsea away, Manchester United at home – which could easily account for their title chances.
Arsenal on the other hand have a cake walk home schedule and should take 15 points from their five games at Emirates Stadium.
Which leaves trips to Everton, West Ham, Sunderland and Manchester City to negotiate. Not the easiest fixtures, but if Arsenal needed six points from these matches then it is very feasible: They last lost at West Ham in 2006/07, they beat City away last season, they have won their last three at Sunderland.
Everton is the tough one, going on past results, but Everton have lost more home games than Norwich and Newcastle, who are both in the bottom three.
For Leicester to lose the title they are going to have to stutter, but, unlikely as it seems, Arsenal are best placed to catch them.
Sanchez needs to get going
Alexis Sanchez’s goal in the 2-2 draw at Spurs was his first in the league since coming back from two months out injured at the end of January.
Arsenal need him to return to top form if they have a chance of putting up the sort of run of wins that could see them pip Leicester to the title.
The Chilean generally scores in spurts and when he does, Arsenal win. Six goals in three games earlier this season resulted in three of Arsenal’s best results – a 5-2 win at Leicester, a 3-0 mauling of Manchester United and a 3-0 home win over Watford.
It’s a simple equation: If Sanchez scores, Arsenal win.
twoods@thenational.ae
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