When Saudi Arabia face Uruguay in their 2026 World Cup Group H opener at this summer, it will be almost four years since they produced one of the greatest shocks in the tournament's history – an unforgettable 2-1 victory over eventual champions Argentina in Qatar.
Spain and Cape Verde also await them. The draw is formidable, the memories of 2022 are fading, and the question that now follows this team everywhere it goes is an uncomfortable one. Are the Green Falcons ready?
On the evidence of recent months, the honest answer is that few in Saudi Arabia truly believe they are.
The latest and most damaging alarms were sounded in recent days. Saudi Arabia’s 2-1 loss to Serbia in a friendly match on Tuesday has heightened concerns, with the team appearing structurally fragile and uncertain in possession.
The numbers were damning. Serbia had 59.4 per cent possession, outshot Saudi Arabia 23-3, and registered 10 shots on target to one, winning 10 corners to one as Mohammed Al Owais was forced into eight saves.
The result mattered less than the repetition of familiar flaws, with defensive disorganisation, a failing offside line and an attack unable to sustain pressure resurfacing.
Reports across Saudi Arabian media now indicate that coach Herve Renard is at serious risk of dismissal, with pressure mounting in the immediate aftermath of the Serbia performance.
Walid Regragui is widely cited as the leading candidate to replace him should a change be made before the summer, a reflection of how quickly the situation has escalated.
Those concerns had already emerged last month when Egypt dismantled Saudi Arabia 4-0 in a friendly at the Alinma Stadium at King Abdullah Sport City.
Islam Issa, Trezeguet, Zizo and Omar Marmoush all found the net in a match the hosts barely contested. Egypt were without the injured Mohamed Salah and still dominated from the first minute to the last, carving open a Saudi defence that appeared to have no understanding of its own shape.
Renard did not disguise his fury, walking straight past his own players at the final whistle and disappearing into the tunnel without a word to his squad. Saudi Arabian Football Federation president Yasser Al Misehal convened an emergency meeting with the coach and players immediately afterwards.
The reaction from within the kingdom to that defeat was fierce. Prominent broadcaster Waleed Al Farraj described the Egyptian victory as entirely deserved, while analyst Mohammed Al Sheikh, a former SAFF spokesman, had accused Renard of stripping the national team of its identity, arguing that "Renard has taken away the team's identity. We neither play well nor win."
This downturn in form did not emerge from nowhere. It is the culmination of a year of steady decline stretching back to Renard's return in November 2024, when he replaced the underwhelming Roberto Mancini.
The record since reads 13 wins, 11 defeats and six draws across 30 matches, with 35 goals scored and 34 conceded. There were disappointing results along the way and performances not befitting a nation heavily invested in football.
The Fifa Arab Cup in Qatar, intended as a confidence-building platform, instead became the moment the cracks turned to fractures. Saudi Arabia lost to Morocco in the group stage, a result made all the more damning by the fact that Morocco had sent a "largely second-string squad" to the tournament, preserving their European-based stars for the Africa Cup of Nations that followed.
In the quarter-finals, 120 exhausting minutes and a Mohamed Kanno goal that finally found the breakthrough were needed to scrape past Palestine. Then came the 1-0 semi-final defeat to Jordan, and with it the first serious calls for Renard's dismissal.
The defence, once the bedrock of Renard's philosophy, has become the team's biggest vulnerability. During the Arab Cup, the Green Falcons conceded in every match before the dead-rubber third-place play-off.
Thirty-four goals conceded in 30 games under Renard in his second stint. Six goals conceded in the past two friendlies during the international break.
The coach has persisted with a high defensive line built around an off-side trap that his players appear unable to execute with the precision it demands. Hamed Al Balawi, chief executive of Al Kholood Club and a regular voice on Saudi sports television, described Renard's tactical concepts as ideas that have "died in modern football," arguing that the trap requires a level of coordination the current squad simply does not possess.
The goalkeeping position has become a controversy in its own right. After Nawaf Al Aqidi's difficult display against Egypt, during which Marmoush's long-range strike for the fourth goal exposed his positioning, Renard turned to veteran Mohammed Al Owais ahead of the Serbia friendly, a decision that raised further questions about the clarity of his selection hierarchy.
Former international goalkeeper Mohamed Al Deayea weighed in on the debate, questioning the process by which the first-choice keeper was selected and suggesting the goalkeeping coach bore responsibility for failing to identify the right man for the occasion.
It’s important to note Renard did guide Saudi Arabia to World Cup qualification, the second time he has achieved that feat, and the country boasts a promising generation of young players, with 22-year-old Al Qadsiah midfielder Musab Al Juwayr, the 2024/25 Saudi League Young Player of the Year, representing perhaps the most exciting talent to emerge in years.
Yet questions remain around the team’s tactical direction under the Frenchman, including the use of players out of position and a lack of clarity in selection, raising concerns about the squad’s readiness not only for the present but for the future.
Renard himself has repeatedly acknowledged the tension, arguing in press conferences that Saudi players need to compete more for minutes at club level if they are to develop at the pace required for international football, pointing to a broader structural challenge.
The Saudi Pro League has spent lavishly to attract established superstars like Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, yet domestic players find themselves squeezed out of starting lineups at their own clubs, denied the regular game time essential for development.
It is a challenge Brazilian legend Zico identified in an interview with The National earlier this year. "China brought in big names but local football did not develop," Zico said. "Japan took a different approach. They also brought experienced international players, but at the same time they developed local football and gave Japanese players the opportunity to grow. Today, Japanese players are playing in the best leagues in the world. Bringing big stars alone is not enough if local players are not given opportunities."
Serbia was not a friendly but a warning. Whether Saudi Arabia’s problems can be corrected in time for the World Cup is now the only question that matters. Will Renard remain in charge long enough to attempt one more reinvention or will he be replaced before the team heads to North America?
