World Cup 2026: Can UAE qualify automatically if they beat Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan?

National team have two crucial fixtures in the final round of Asian qualifying, starting with Cosmin Olaroiu’s first match in charge in Abu Dhabi

Cosmin Olaroiu will take charge of his first games as UAE coach. Photo: UAE FA

Cosmin Olaroiu will oversee his first fixtures as UAE manager when the national team play Uzbekistan on Thursday and then travel to face Kyrgyzstan on Tuesday.

The Romanian coach has enjoyed a glittering career in the club game in the region. Now, his first assignments with the UAE could scarcely be any more significant.

The national team are still in with an outside chance of making it automatically to the 2026 World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico. But Olaroiu is going to have to work some magic to make it happen.

State of play

The top two teams in the group advance directly to the main event.

Iran are already assured of one of those places. The UAE and Uzbekistan are the only two sides mathematically in contention for the second.

Ahead of the final two matches in the group, the Uzbeks are second, and have a four-point cushion over the national team.

With six points left to play for, there is no margin for error for the UAE – but there is still a chance.

The permutations

To keep the dream alive, the UAE have to beat the Uzbeks when they play at Al Nahyan Stadium – the home of Al Wahda Club – on Thursday evening.

If they do that, they will move to within a point of them ahead of the last round of matches on Tuesday.

The national team do have one thing in their favour. Their goal difference is superior to the Uzbeks.

It means that if they do win on Thursday, Olaroiu’s side would have to better what Uzbekistan do in their respective final matches on Tuesday.

Meaning, if the UAE beat Kyrgyzstan in Bishkek, and the Uzbeks draw or lose at home to Qatar, the national team would qualify for the World Cup.

If the UAE were to draw in Kyrgyzstan, that would also be enough if Uzbekistan lost to Qatar.

Is there a fall back option?

Sultan Adil’s dramatic stoppage time winner to beat North Korea in Riyadh in the UAE’s most recent qualifier was not enough to save Paulo Bento’s job as manager.

It did, though, guarantee the UAE a place in the next phase of qualifying – as a minimum if they don’t go through automatically.

The third and fourth placed teams in the three groups in the current phase of qualifying will enter into a six-team repechage event.

The sides will be split into two groups of three, at a centralized venue, from October 8 to 14.

The teams will play two matches in the group, and the sides who finish top will make it to the World Cup.

And after that?

The qualifying process might seem never-ending, but it will eventually finish at some point.

The two runners up in the three-team groups in the competition in October will face each other home and away in November.

The winner will go to a six-team intercontinental play-off in March next year. That will include sides from Africa and the Americas, plus New Caledonia from the Oceania confederation.

This event – played in one of the three countries hosting the World Cup – will decide the last two teams to play at the main event.