Lewis Hamilton says Mercedes "still have a lot of work to do" ahead of the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix on the evidence of testing at the Sakhir circuit this week.
"I am sure everyone can figure that out, we are not the quickest at the moment.
"I think Ferrari look to be the quickest and perhaps Red Bull and then maybe us or McLaren," the seven-time world champion said on Saturday.
Mercedes unveiled a radical interpretation of the new technical regulations designed to promote closer racing with their 'no sidepod' car which they are counting on to power Hamilton to an unprecedented eighth world title.
But the Briton, beaten for last year's world title on the last lap of the last race in Abu Dhabi by Max Verstappen of Red Bull, says from what he is told "we have considerable amount of pace to find".
"Obviously it's a little bit too early to have that kind of thoughts but at the moment I don't think we'll be competing for wins," he forecast.
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix - in pictures
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Race winner and 2021 F1 world champion Max Verstappen and his Red Bull Racing team celebrate on the podium after the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix at Yas Marina Circuit on December 12, 2021. Victor Besa / The National -
Verstappen fought off Lewis Hamilton in a nail-biting finish. Victor Besa / The National -
Verstappen runs to celebrate with his team. Victor Besa / The National -
The Dutch driver clinched the race and the championship on the final lap. Victor Besa / The National -
Race fans cheer as Verstappen wins. Victor Besa / The National -
Verstappen enjoys that winning feeling. Reuters -
Verstappen drinks in the moment as Mercedes driver Lewis Hamilton looks dejected after finishing second. Reuters -
Verstappen and Hamilton go head to head on the track. Victor Besa / The National -
An Etihad Airways flyover before the race. The airline sponsored the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Victor Besa / The National -
Verstappen in action. Victor Besa / The National -
Hamilton took an early lead. Victor Besa / The National -
Verstappen and Hamilton led the championship going into the final race. Victor Besa / The National -
The start of the race. Reuters -
Drivers pose for their end-of-season picture before the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. AP -
Aston Martin's Sebastian Vettel before the race. Reuters -
Fans of Verstappen and Hamilton before the race. Reuters -
Hamilton looks relaxed before the race. Reuters -
Verstappen looks like he means business. Reuters -
Hamilton soaks up the early atmosphere. Victor Besa / The National -
Mercedes driver Valtteri Bottas with his girlfriend Tiffany Cromwell. Victor Besa / The National -
Verstappen arrives at the circuit with his girlfriend Kelly Piquet. Reuters -
Hamilton on the Yas Marina Circuit. AFP
With pre-season testing performances notoriously difficult to read Mercedes' grid rivals will take his cautious prognosis with a pinch of salt, if history is anything to go by.
Last year Red Bull ruled pre-season tests in Barcelona only for Hamilton to emerge the winner in Bahrain.
"People keep talking about whether we are talking ourselves down or not, but it's a bit different this year," he said.
"Obviously next week, we'll got a much better showing of our pace but I think people will be surprised, maybe?
"There is potential within our car to get us there, we've just got to learn how to extract it and fix some of the problems, which is what we are working on."
